The markets were under pressure in the week gone by and lost on three of the four trading days. BSESENSEX was down 2,224.84 points or 7.46% at 27,590.75 points whilst NIFTY was down 576.45 points or 6.66% at 8,083.80 points.

The top gaining sector was BSEHEALTHCARE which was up 6.59% while the top losing sector was BSEBANKEX down 13.98%. In individual stocks, the top gainer was Lupin, up 19.74% at Rs 655. The top loser was IndusInd Bank, down 23.78% at Rs 313.25.

The Indian Rupee was under terrific pressure and lost Rs 1.33 or 1.78% to close at Rs 76.22 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones continued its wild swings and lost 584.25 points or 2.70% to close at 21,052.53 points.

Singapore has decided to lockdown from 7th April till the end of the month. SGX or Singapore Stock Exchange would continue to function as it is part of essential services.

SEBI has barred promoters from buying their own shares as the new quarter has started. The insider trading rules debar promoters from buying shares until 48 hours after the results have been declared. This time around they have extended the reporting time of the quarter for declaring results of March 2020 quarter. There was some confusion in media about this being a new rule and there were voices of dissent. There is no such thing and the only reason it has been announced is that with an extended period for declaring results, any management/promoter wanting to buy shares of its company needs to declare results first as was the case always.

Covid-19 continues to be the sore trouble spot for India and the world. The death toll and the number of covid-19 affected persons is rapidly rising. The number of affected persons globally has risen to over 12.74 lac patients, while the death toll is at 69,465. In India the number has risen sharply for affected persons to 4,289 and the death toll to 118. In India there has been a very sharp spike in the last couple of days after people who had attended a religious congregation in Delhi are being tracked down and found to be covid-19 affected. This could be a setback to India’s efforts to contain the virus and may result in the planned lockdown being extended or lifted in a more gradual and phased manner.

The PM’s solidarity event at 9 pm on Sunday for 9 minutes turned out to a very well attended event and one saw millions and billions of countrymen extending support and solidarity with the resolve to defeat covid-19. Further the national grid remained intact contrary to what some opposition leaders were creating a song and dance about.

Money market timings have been reduced with effect from 7th April and it may be a good idea if the same timings are also extended to the capital market. Volumes in the market have reduced significantly and reduced timings would help the market in reducing volatility as well. Whether the regulator would take heed of the suggestion or not is anybody’s guess but I am sure the market community would be most happy and welcome the suggestion.

Coming to the markets, it has become quite a norm for markets to take one step forward and two steps backward. There is no direction or logic in what’s happening. They lose ground and then there is some recovery. Sector after sector is losing ground and the fall in prices is having a cascading effect on margin calls and revocation of pledged shares as well. The fall in prices of Future Retail saw a broker on the exchanges close shop after firing all its employees. Incidentally the brokerage firm India Nivesh had a former CFO/CEO of Future group as its Managing Director for its Wealth Management arm. Quite surprising that a Former insider of the Biyani group could get so badly trapped in Future group share slide. It could also be that this is the tip of the iceberg on this chapter and more events would unfold shortly.

The week ahead has just three trading days with holidays on Monday and Friday. With such a truncated week, volatility may hopefully be reduced and day traders choose to be on the sidelines.

The current levels at which the markets are attractive enough to invest in selectively. However, the global environment is not conducive and the news flow certainly not heartening. Therefore, even though one is tempted looking at the prices, it makes sense to just stay away and wait for better times. When this better time would come is yet another dilemma. I believe that in about 4 to 6 weeks’ time the world would have come out of covid-19 and we would be in a better frame of mind. Till then follow the old adage – CASH IS KING. Stay Safe. Stay at home and as they say, Jaan Hain to Jahan Hain.

A week can be a very long time and last week was a classic example. It began with the markets
falling very sharply and the BSESENSEX losing just about 4,000 points on Monday. Tuesday saw the markets trading in a comparatively narrow range of just about 800 points on BSESENSEX. Tuesday night was also the time when PM Modi announced a 21-day lockdown beginning 12 midnight of Tuesday the 24/25 th March. Wednesday saw markets gain 2,000 points. Thursday saw the FM announcing measures to ensure that the poorest of poor had food and money to tide over the present crisis. Markets gained 1,400 points on the BSESENSEX. Friday saw RBI announcing rate cuts and measures to benefit the banking system and customers. Markets after gaining initially closed with minor losses of 130 points on BSESENSEX.

The week closed with losses of 100.37 points on BSESENSEX or 0.34% at 29.815.59 points. NIFTY closed with losses of 85.20 points or 0.97% at 8,660.25 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 1.52%, 1.92% and 2.23% respectively. BSEMIDCAP was down 5.42% while BSESMALLCAP was down 6.09%.

It would be interesting to observe that BSESENSEX made an intraday low of 25,880.83 points on Monday and 25,638.90 points on Tuesday before staging a sharp recovery for the week. Similarly, NIFTY made lows of 7,583.30 points on Monday and 7,511.10 points on Tuesday. The intraweek highs made on Friday was 31,126.03 before the profit taking and correction post RBI policy. Similarly, NIFTY made a high of 9,038.90 points. In normal circumstances I would have stuck my neck out and said that this was a bottom that we have witnessed but after the setback 2 weeks ago would now say that the signs indicate that probably a bottom has now been established.

The Indian Rupee after a wild week, managed to recover 29 paisa or 0.39% to close at Rs 74.89 to the US dollar. Dow Jones had a torrid week and managed to gain 2,462.80 points or 12.84% at 21,636.78 points. During this period on has witnessed Dow ending the day with gains of 800-1000 points and futures opening with losses of over 600 points. Such has been the volatility that it has changed the trading atmosphere and brought in unheard of uncertainty. March futures expired on expected lines and the series lost 2,991.85 points or 25.72% to close at 8,641.45 points. While there was recovery during the week it just recovered the intraweek losses.

In recognition of the services of the healthcare sector, the government has announced a health insurance of Rs 50 lacs per person involved in the treatment of covid-19 whether it be doctors, nurses or support staff. This would boost the morale of those people who are giving their best for the treatment of the pandemic.

RBI advanced its monetary policy review meeting to be held from March 31 – April 3 and instead held it from March 25- 27. On Friday it announced a cut in Repo rate by 75 basis points from 5.15% to 4.40%. CRR or cash reserve ratio was cut by 100 basis points 3%. Reverse repo rate was cut by 90 basis points to 4%. In a very significant move, it announced that lending institutions can allow 3 months moratorium on EMI’s. Deferment on loans and interest repayments will not be classified as defaulters and will not impact credit history of borrowers.

The FM is expected to announce further measures which would affect positively the SME and MSME segments in the coming week. One announcement which is being looked for is the change in the financial year which would end on 31 st March. With complete disruption having already happened it would be in the fitment of things that the same be shifted to end on 30 th April at the bare minimum or ideally 30 th June. This would ensure better compliance and convenience for all stake holders.

Yes Bank’s dream run post the resurrection is over on the bourses. The effect of the short squeeze caused by 75% of the shares being declared as locked in for three years and therefore non-tradeable is also over. The share was a big loser on the bourses and lost Rs 19.50 or 42.48% to close at Rs 26.50. Post the resurrection, the share prices had run up to Rs 87.95 on the 18 th of March.

There sems to be confusion in the microfinance sector with regards to collection of dues. While one state Tamil Nadu has notified that collection cannot be done, the lockdown implies that it is not possible to collect dues. Further loans given in MFI lending are more to do with relationship of the customer with the lender and long-standing track record. The nature of the business is such that MFI would be advancing loans to meet the current crisis of meeting daily needs. The hammering of these shares seems overdone.

Yet another share which seems to have fallen no end on governance issues and lack of credibility of promoter’s statement is Sterling and Wilson Solar Limited. Shares were issues at Rs 780 and are currently trading at Rs 77.25. The share is down Rs 22.45 for the week and a massive 90.10% from the IPO price of Rs 780. The non-payment of promoter loans as committed remains the key concern.

Covid-19 has gripped the entire world and at last count had already claimed 30,900 deaths and over 6.65 lac affected patients. We need to understand that the advanced countries in the US and Europe are having far better resources and infrastructure to tackle covid-19 than we have in India. The complete lockdown is in our national interest and it would help in containing the spread of the virus significantly. Paying heed to the request of the Prime Minister and following the shutdown would help you and therefore the nation.

Coming to the markets, we have seen complete mayhem so far in the last five weeks. The time to do some repair, some rebuilding and some shopping has probably come. Look at some damage control to the portfolio by topping up blue chips. The path to recovery will be slow, tedious and bumpy.
With a reasonable amount of comfort, it could be said that barring a major setback on the covid-19 front, things should limp back toward partial normalcy.

Use any sharp dips to buy into the market and for sure you will get opportunities.