Markets went crazy on Friday the 13 th and we had a reversal which is unparalleled in recent times.
The benchmark indices hit the lower circuit of 10% and on reopening, they fell further briefly before
they recovered not only the losses of 10% of the morning but closed in positive territory by about
4%. Such volatility is sure to increase the health bills of many a senior citizen.

BSESENSEX lost 3,473.14 points or 9.24% to close at 34,103.48 points. NIFTY lost 1,034.25 points or 9.41% to close at 9,955.20 points. The broader indices like the BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 closed with losses of 9.55%, 9.65% and 9.85% respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 11.17% and BSESMALLCAP lost 11.77%.

BSESENSEX on Friday the 13 th , hit a low of 29,389 points before recovering to hit a high of 34,769 points and closing at 34,103 points, a net daily gain of 1,325 points. NIFTY hit a low of 8,555 points after which it touched a high of 10,159 and closed at 9,955 points, a gain of 365 points. The intra-day swing on the BSE was 5,381 points while it was 1,604 points on NIFTY. Clearly unheard of and unparalleled.

The Indian Rupee was volatile in league with the markets and managed to recover lost ground. It
closed with weekly losses of 2 paisa or 0.03% at Rs 73.74. Dow Jones was all over the place and like India and many other countries around the world, had a fearful and then fiery Friday. Friday saw Dow Jones open at 21,973 points, make a low at 21,285 points, high at 23,189 points and finally close at 23,185 points against the previous day’s close of 21,200 points. This happened after Asia
and Europe had recovered.

Is the bottom established? Yes, and I strongly believe so. Some of the indicators which support my
belief are as follows. There was a sell-off on the day and even the exchange has liquidated positions on account of margin calls. Two primary market issues from Rossari Biotech and Burger King which were to have their roadshows in Mumbai on Friday, decided to postpone the same in view of the struggling market. A primary issue which is currently on, Antony Waste Handling Cell, after being extended is to close on Monday the 16 th of March is still struggling. Unless the merchant banker pulls out a rabbit from his hat, the current indicators are not suggesting that the issue would go through.

They need QIB portion to be not only subscribed but it should be oversubscribed 2.8 times roughly,
assuming other categories do not come. The recovery which the markets saw, was accompanied by huge short covering and significant volumes. All of this suggests, that the bottom is in place but after such a massive earthquake, the aftershocks would continue, but certainly the worst is over.

SBI Card would list on Monday the 16th of March at the bourses. The issue was expected to
generate a lot of enthusiasm and was expected to garner huge subscriptions, but something went
wrong at the last moment which caused the subscription levels to fail to come up to expectations
and the market sentiment went awry. Even the grey market premiums which were being quoted at
about close to 45-50% of the issue price have turned negative to neutral.

SBI Card had in the DRHP mentioned that there would be a shareholder’s quota in the issue of SBI
Card for existing shareholders of SBI. It was but natural that India’s largest bank by number of
branches and customers would attract new shareholders after this information became public
knowledge. Accordingly, the number of shareholders saw an increase of roughly 50% in number
from 13 odd lacs to 19.5 lacs in the previous 4.5 months to the record date of 18 th February 2020.

The shareholders quota consisted of 1.30 cr shares and there were 4,94,970 valid applications for
30,29,66,153 shares. Of these 4.95 lac applications more than half or 2,59,463 applications were for
one lot of 19 shares. Another 65,445 applications were for 247 shares or 13 lots and 1,22,626
applications were for 14 lots or 266 shares. Effectively this meant that this shareholders quota was
largely subscribed to by retail shareholders in terms of number of applications. This certainly is a
very good thing and should be encouraged. Now comes the tragedy. Because of the pro-rata system of allocation, of the 2.59 lac applicants who applied for 19 shares, only 11,179 were allotted 19 shares, balance got ZERO. The top 100 allottees in the shareholder quota who have applied for 6 lac shares each or thereabouts, have been allotted 66% or 2/3 rd of the total 1.30 cr shares. Very clearly this was not what the regulator or the company intended. Top 200 successful applicants were given 81% of the allocation which is against natural justice. There is a HNI bucket and because the regulator wanted a larger participation he gave a higher allocation to retail investors in the retail category. Creating a backdoor entry for HNI’s to borrow and leverage their application and come through the shareholder category is most unfortunate and appears to be against the very spirit. What has happened has happened, and one hopes that this serves as a fine example to the promoters, regulator and merchant bankers for future.

In any case the only beneficiary in this issue has been the financiers who lent at almost double the interest rates compared to the previous issue of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank. The interest rates in that issue hovered around 8% while here they have shot up to anything between 14-18%.

Yes Bank reported losses of over Rs 18,500 crs in the third quarter of FY20. The government has also notified a plan for the resurrection of Yes Bank which involves 7 banks putting in money into the equity of Yes Bank. The banks include State Bank with Rs 7,250 crs, HDFC Bank Rs 1,000 crs, ICICI Bank Rs 1,000 crs, Axis Bank Rs 600 crs, Kotak Bank Rs 500 crs, Bandhan Bank Rs 300 crs and Federal Bank Rs 300 crs. Further there would be a lock-in of shares of existing and new shareholders holding over 100 shares to the extent of 75% of their shareholding. This would force people to cut their positions in the market and futures open interest would see a substantial paring as the collateral of shares of Yes Bank would now reduce by 75%. This lock-in is with effect from close of business on Friday the 13 th of March. The massive loss, huge recapitalisation of bank and lock in being created to the extent of 75% would make the counter of Yes Bank interesting to watch and follow on Monday.

The week ahead may have some aftershocks to the huge movement one witnessed on Friday, but Covid-19 notwithstanding, the bottom has been established. Use dips to build positions and if in doubt, one needs to stay away not short the market.

After a tough and volatile week one expected markets to consolidate. Unfortunately, while in the first four days of the week they did exactly that, Friday saw yet another sell-off and caused markets to slip into the red. BSESENSEX lost 720.67 points or 1.88% at 37,576.62 points while NIFTY lost 212.30 points or 1.90% to close at 10,989.45 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 1.72%, 1.77% and 1.86% respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 2.55% while BSESMALLCAP was down 2.77%.

The Indian Rupee was under severe pressure and lost Rs 1.50 or 2.08% to close at Rs 73.72 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones after a choppy and wild week gained 278.51 points or 1.10% to close at 25,687.87 points. Indian Markets gained on two days during the week and lost on three days.

Covid-19 continues to be in the news all over the world. While the same is now spreading to new geographies, it seems to be coming under control at the source of the problem, China. People who were the initial victims of the virus are recovering. Wuhan which had become a ghost town is reopening. Many people seem to have found a cure for the virus but there is no confirmed news of the same. One thing is for sure that the virus is coming under control, though there would be new cases erupting in a sporadic manner. Many countries have issued travel advisory for people visiting certain countries and also set up screening centres for people coming from certain affected countries. On a lighter note spot fares have crashed on many routes and air tickets are available at around half their normal value.
Yes Bank was in the news on Thursday and Friday. On Thursday the share saw its price rise from Rs 29.30 to Rs 36.80 on volumes of 78.47 cr shares on NSE in the cash market. That evening RBI and the government announced SBI would infuse capital into the bank and take a stake of 49%. Restrictions on withdrawal were also put in place. The next day, Yes Bank shares were on a roller coaster ride and fell from Rs 36.80 to Rs 5.65 before recovering to close at Rs 16.20. The fall was Rs 20.60 or 53.11% on volumes of 126.49 cr shares. The traded value on Friday of Rs 1,865 crs was more than 45% of the full market cap of the company. This does not take into account the derivative traded value or the volume on BSE. The developments on the company have begun on a very fast pace and the former founder is being questioned in connection with loans to DHFL and some other borrowers. The founder and co-promoter of the bank, Rana Kapoor has been sent to ED custody till 11th of March.

The long-awaited primary market issue from SBI Card was subscribed 26.49 times overall. The QIB portion was subscribed 56.66 times, HNI portion 45.24 times, Retail portion 2.5 times, Employee portion 4.74 times and Shareholder portion 25.36 times. HNI’s were allowed to bid in shareholder category which caused cannibalising of the bucket and much heartburn as well. It may be mentioned that the merchant bankers advised the company for doing this citing that in the case of SBI Life Insurance issue in September 2017, the shareholder bucket remained undersubscribed. What they did not mention is the fact that in that issue, the HNI portion and Retail portions were also undersubscribed. With small shareholders of SBI Bank feeling let down in the issue of SBI Card, one hopes that the regulator and also the promoter of SBI Card take corrective action in future issues.

The issue from Antony Waste Handling Cell Limited was undersubscribed at the close of the issue on Friday the 5th of March and has been extended by five working days to now close on Monday the 16th of March. The merchant bankers have taken a risk choosing this day as closing, as shares of SBI Card would be listing on the same day. As one hears in the media, if that listing does not go off well, there could be a backlash on this smaller issue which is for just about Rs 200 crs.

The week ahead has a trading holiday on Tuesday and effectively the week would begin on Wednesday. While Dow Jones was down on Friday. One hopes that markets when they open on Monday would do so with a positive mindset but it may be asking for too much. The fear of Covid-19 is to overbearing for any sanity to prevail.

The strategy for the week would be to look for deep value in stocks and do selective buying. There has been deep erosion and markets are looking that much cheaper and attractive. Recoveries are unlikely to be U shaped but they would move up in the immediate short term.