It was a short truncated week with trading on a mere three sessions. Markets gained on two of the three sessions and lost on one. The short week was however very eventful. It began with expiry of NIFTY March futures, the end of trading for the financial year 2025-2026 and the beginning of new financial year 2026-27. One can only hope and pray that the New Year brings better tidings. The three trading sessions were different from each other. While the first day was a down day, the second day was an up day and the third saw a sharp recovery from down day to actually close positive. The spectacular recovery in the Indian Rupee also helped sentiment.  

BSESENSEX lost 263.67 points or 0.36% to close at 73,319.55 points while NIFTY lost 106.50 points or 0.47% to close at 22,713.10 points. BANKNIFTY lost 725.85 points or 1.39% to close at 51,548.75 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 0.36%, 0.43% and 0.29% respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 0.48% while BSESMALLCAP gained 1.48%. BSEIT was the top sectorial gainer and was up 2.95%. 

The Indian Rupee was the top performer and saw a spectacular recovery and gained a massive Rs 1.50 or 1.58% to close at Rs 93.23. This was not because of RBI intervention on the Rupee, but RBI ensuring that speculators on the Indian Rupee did not get access to cheap funds to be used for Rupee-Dollar speculation. Things worked and worked wonderfully. 

Dow Jones gained on three of the four trading sessions and lost on one. It was up 1,338.03 points or 2.96% to close at 46,504.67 points. 

NIFTY March futures expired on a weak note and the series saw losses of a massive 3,093.25 points or 12.17% to close at 22,331.40 points. The last time we saw similar losses were six years back when Covid-19 had broken out. This was in March 2020 and the level of NIFTY was around 8,660 points. 

We had four listings during the week and it was certainly not encouraging. It could be termed as a bad end to the year which has ended and also a poor beginning. The first of the list was from Coal India subsidiary, Central Mine Planning Design Institute Limited which listed on Monday the 30th of March 2026. It had issued shares at Rs 172. While the share closed day one at Rs 154.05, a loss of Rs 17.95, it recovered marginally to close at Rs 155.95 at weekend. The share lost Rs 16.05 or 9.33%. 

There were three listings on Thursday the 2nd of April. The first of these was from Powerica Limited which had issued shares at Rs 395. Shares closed at Rs 390, a loss of Rs 5 or 1.27%.

The second was from Sai Parenterals which had issued shares at Rs 392. The share closed day one with support from the house which had brought the issue as lead manager and it closed at Rs 406.40, a gain of Rs 14.40 or 3.67%. Arihant Capital Markets Limited bought 4,51,212 shares on BSE at Rs 407.60. How one should read this is a bit confusing but not something that normally happens. 

The third and final issue was from Amir Chand Jagdish Kumar Exports Limited which had issued shares at Rs 212. The share opened at Rs 195 and closed at Rs 175.50, a loss of Rs 36.50 or 17.22%. Very clearly it appears that the issue was not well marketed or accepted by the investors. 

Coming to the week ahead, we have RBI meeting for its bi-monthly monetary policy meeting on Monday to Wednesday. It is widely expected that RBI could keep rates unchanged with current Repo rates at 5.25%. 

An update on war. Donald Trump continues with his wild statements and his self-imposed timeline or ultimatum would expire on Sunday/Monday for making the Strait of Hormuz open. The war has been opened on many fronts and hearing the American side of the story, one wonders what is left in Iran. Yet, they are able to take down aircrafts and make life hell for the Middle East neighbors where there are US bases. How this war would end, when it would end is now becoming a major cause for concern for all. Iran has sent a list of bridges which are under their active consideration for retaliation if their infrastructure is attacked. The less talked about the US-Iran war the better. This war makes your blood boil at the casualties that it is throwing up even without ground assault. What would happen if ground war begins, Heaven help? 

Coming to the week ahead. We would have trading for five full trading sessions which would certainly make trading momentum hold and not have jerks. It would be volatile and choppy and entire focus on the geo-political issues. The lows made on Thursday, which was the last trading day at 71.545.81 points on BSESENSEX and at 22,182.55 would act as supports on any down move. If these were to break we have support at 70,000 points and 21,700 points respectively. Will these levels be reached or breached, only time will tell. On the upside, we have resistance at 23,000 points and 74,500 points. The strategy for the week would be avoid overnight positions and concentrate on intra-day moves. It will provide enough opportunities for trade. For building a portfolio it’s time to wait for probably another 7-14 days when better clarity would be available. 

Trade cautiously and for our betterment hope that clarity and sanity makes geo-political situation normalize at the earliest. 

STOP PRESS: This article was written yesterday morning. Since then Donald Trump has used language which a head of government does not or should not use for anyone. It shows frustration and anger at having not been able to achieve what he set out to do even as the war enters its sixth week. Considering multiple deadlines on Monday and Tuesday, expect very choppy markets. Remember that social media is unreliable and in market times can be dangerous. The attack on GCC infrastructure by Iran in retaliation to Iran infrastructure attacks is a new dangerous trend emerging. This will have lasting and costly damage.

Therefore trade only if necessary or you have the resources to take them to its logical end. 

The week gone by had four trading sessions, but it seemed like the week did not just get over. We began with a sharp fall on Monday and then more than made up with smart rallies on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday was a holiday and Friday when markets reopened, all hell was let loose. Markets just collapsed and we ended the week with decent losses. BSESENSEX lost 949.74 points or 1.27% to close at 73,583.22 points while NIFTY lost 294.90 points or 1.28% to close at 22,819.60 points. BANKNIFTY lost 1,152.45 points or 2.16% to close at 52,274.60 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 AND BSE500 lose 1.40%, 1.50% and 1.46% respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 1.27% while BSESMALLCAP lost 1.76%. The top sectorial loser was BSEREALTY down 3.95% while the top gainer was BSEIT up 0.78%. Markets gained on two of the four trading sessions and lost on two. Lows of the week were made on Monday the 23rd of March at 72,696.39 points on BSESENSEX and at 22,471.25 points on NIFTY. The highs were made on Friday at 74,904.91 points and 23,186.10 points respectively. These levels would play an important part to act as supports and resistances in the coming weeks. 

The India Rupee continued to be under pressure and lost 95 paisa or 1.01% to close at Rs 94.73 to the US dollar. Dow Jones lost on three of the five trading sessions and gained on two. It was down 410.83 points or 0.90% to close at 45,166.65 points. 

I am no expert on war matters but am compelled to offer my two-bit understanding on the Israel-US led war on Iran. Couple of points to be taken care off. There is apparently no intention on any side to discuss and normalize relations. This ten day ceasefire is only a smokescreen created by USA to move in ground troops and be better positioned for the next round. Israel is running low on ammunition and it appears that they do not have enough to take them through the coming days when fighting on the ground begins. Thirdly, Iran is better positioned to fight on the ground and would have an upper hand. Further when body bags are carried by aircraft back to the USA, there would be a hue and cry raised by Americans which could cause trouble for Trump. One other point while addressing his cabinet, Trump spoke about the ‘Strait of Trump’ instead of Strait of Hormuz. It shows his current mindset and how arrogant and pompous he currently is. 

Markets when they open next week in India will see March futures expire on Monday the 30th of March, as Tuesday is a trading holiday. Further, Friday is again a trading holiday for Good Friday, which would see many global markets also shut. In short, it would be just a three day week with a break in momentum, because of the Tuesday holiday.

Coming to the primary markets, we saw three issues list during the week and four IPOs close for subscription. If one were to use one sentence to describe what happened- Not satisfactory. There is fatigue and investors are not willing to put in new money at current valuations.

Coming to the listings first. The first to list was Innovision Limited which had issued shares at Rs 519. The share closed at lower circuit of Rs 372.80 on Monday. By Friday, the share lost further ground and closed at Rs 357.50, a loss of Rs 161.50 or 31.12%. 

The second share to list was the Invit from NHAI, Raaj Marg Infra Limited which had issued units at Rs 100. The Invit closed day one (Tuesday 24th March) at Rs 106.83, a gain of Rs 6.83 or 6.83%. By weekend, it gained further to close at Rs 109.82, a gain of Rs 9.82 or 9.82%. 

The third share to list was GSP Crop Science Limited which had issued shares at Rs 320. Shares closed day one (Tuesday 24th March) at Rs 356.10, a gain of Rs 36.10 or 11.28%. By weekend, it lost marginally to close at Rs 355.25, a gain of Rs 35.25 or 11.02%. 

The first of the four IPOs was from Coal India subsidiary, CMPDI which closed on Tuesday the 24th of March. The issue was subscribed 1.05 times total with QIB portion subscribed 3.48 times, HNI portion subscribed 0.35 times, Retail portion was subscribed 0.33 times. 

The remaining three issues all opened on Tuesday the 24th of March and closed on Friday the 27th of March. The first was from Sai Parenterals Limited which had issued shares in a price band of Rs 372-392. The issue was subscribed 1.08 times total with QIB portion subscribed 1.73 times, HNI portion subscribed 2.45 times, Retail portion was subscribed 0.12 times. 

The second issue was from Amir Chand Jagdish Kumar (Exports) Limited. The issue was subscribed 3.41 times total with QIB portion subscribed 1.18 times, HNI portion subscribed 13.41 times, Retail portion subscribed 1.44 times. The issue size was Rs 440 crores. 

The third issue was from Powerica Limited which was of a size of Rs 1,100 crore issue. The issue was subscribed 1.53 times total with QIB portion subscribed 4.74 times, HNI portion subscribed 0.47 times, Retail portion subscribed 0.15 times.

Subscription levels clearly suggest that investors were not quite enthused by this late spurt in IPOs at the fag end of the year in such turmoil. The only reason for the rush appears that many of the documents would expire, hence the urgency, come what may. Let us see what listing has in store and post listing after 15 days, where these shares trade.  

Coming to the markets in the week ahead, it would be an action packed week. We begin the week with March futures expiry. The current level of NIFTY is at 22,819.60 points which is down 2,605.05 points or 10.25% lower than the series open at 25,424.65 points. While Bulls will hope to end the series with minor gains on expiry day, geo-politics indicate that bears will press the pedal. This would be followed by a Tuesday holiday and then trading for the financial year 2026-2027 would begin on Wednesday the 1st of April. Friday would again be a holiday and that weekend would be the self-imposed 10 day ceasefire expiring imposed by USA, making markets uncertain when we close on Thursday. 

In short, extremely choppy, volatile and nervous times for the markets with little or no avenue of optimism round the corner. For this war to end, someone has to lose the war and that is not happening immediately. Iran is the underdog and has nothing to lose. 

Key levels of support are the lows made on Monday the 23rd of March at 72,700 and 22,450 points. Lower down we have support at 22,300 points and then in a broad band of 21,700-21,900 points. Even though we have just three trading sessions to go next week, I am alerting you about support levels. On the resistance side, immediate resistance is at 74,900 and at 23,200 levels. 

Trade cautiously using the mind and not emotions.