Markets were in fine fettle and gained on expected lines. They almost recovered the entire losses they suffered in the previous week. BSESENSEX gained 2,034.87 points or 2.68% to close at 28,094.64 points while NIFTY gained 616.15 points or 2.59% to close at 24,383.60 points. BANKNIFTY gained 571.35 points or 1.01% to close at 57,264.85 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 2.65%, 2.47% and 2.39% respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 1.67% while BSESMALLCAP was up 0.63%. The top sectorial gainer was BSEAUTO which gained a massive 5.89% while the top loser was BSEPOWER, down 0.70%. Markets gained on four of the five trading sessions and lost on one session. The intraweek high on BSESENSEX and NIFTY were made at 78,272.25 points and 24,429.40 points, while the lows were made at 76517.85 points and 23,891.95 points. The lows were made on Monday while the highs were made on Friday, giving a possible direction and indication that there is more steam left in the markets in the coming week. 

The Indian Rupee gained Rs 1.19 or 1.23% to close at Rs 95.49 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained 537.78 points or 1.04% to close at 52,485.03 points. Dow gained on three of the five trading sessions and lost on two. The FED kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time by a split 9-3 vote. The verdict indicates that the FED is certainly going to raise interest rates in the coming meetings and would be more likely than just once. Inflation would be the reason for the same. Markets fell very sharply post the announcement on Wednesday and lost 1,153 points. US 10 year bond yields are trading at levels of 4.718% after hitting a high of 4.745%. The rate is almost a percent higher than the FED interest rate.  

The week gone by had three main board listings and all of them happened on Thursday the 30th of July. The first of the lot was Indo-MIM limited which had issued shares at Rs 485. The share closed day one at Rs 741.80 and gained further on Friday to close at Rs 774, a gain of Rs 289 or 59.59%. 

The second to list was machinery manufacturer Lohia Corp from Kanpur who had issued shares at Rs 425. The share closed listing day at Rs 494.65 and gained further to close at Rs 534.40, a gain of Rs 109.40 or 25.74%. 

The third and final share to list was Xtranet Technologies Limited which had issued shares at Rs 127 and closed debut day at Rs 124.80. The share recovered marginally on Friday and closed at Rs 126.60, a loss of Rs 0.40 or 0.31%. 

Tuesday the 28th of July saw NIFTY July futures expire on a positive note. The series was running neck to neck and the bulls pulled it off. The series gain was 119.60 points or 0.50% to close at 23,985.35 points. The July series had begun at levels of 23,865.75 points. 

The week ahead sees many mainboard IPO’s opening and even more planning their road shows. The issue from Manipal Health Enterprises Limited closed on Friday and was subscribed 5.12 times overall. The issue from M V Electro systems Limited is currently open and would close on Monday the 3rd of august. The issue is subscribed 12.97 times. Similarly the issue from Juniper Green energy Limited would also close on Monday the 3rd of august and is currently subscribed 0.49 times. 

Upcoming issues in the week ahead include Ardee Industries, Technocraft Ventures Limited, Leap India Limited and Molbio Diagnostics Limited. 

There will be a flood of IPO’s in the month of August and it would be a time to pick and choose from issues galore.

Coming to the markets in the week ahead, it could be a make or break week. Over the previous week, markets have held there stead and made a good base from where there could be an upward move. The breakout point would be at levels of 24,600 points on NIFTY. Support at the immediate levels are at 24,000-24,100 points and further below at 23,800 around. On the upward side level of breakout is at 24,600 points. If we were to see that happen, markets could give another 200-300 points move and make a new base. For any such move we need geo-political stability and positive news as well. 

The strategy would be to go long and remain long with moving stop losses and refraining from large overnight positions as we all know that announcements from the US are driven on ‘self-trades’. One needs to be cautious in such situations. 

Trade cautiously.

There was mayhem on Dalal Street after USA resumed its pounding on Iran. They were bombed day and night and the war took on a new proportion. Iran continued attacking US assets in the Middle East and caused enough damage for USA and its allies to realize that Iran is no easy prey. But, it caused oil to flare up and quote at 102$ for Brent before easing to quote at 98.38$, but way above comfort zone. Our markets lost on all five trading sessions. BSESENSEX was down 2,091.68 points or 2.68% to close at 76,059.77 points while NIFTY lost 566.85 points or 2.33% to close at 23,767.45 points. BANKNIFTY lost 1,827.90 points or 3.12% to close at 56,693.50 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 1.93%, 1.83% and 1.85% respectively. BSEMIDCAP was down 1.69% while BSESMALLCAP lost 2.14%. Only one sectorial index managed to close marginally in the green, BSEAUTO which was up 0.10%. The intraweek highs which were made at the open on Monday were at 78,151.45 points on BSESENSEX and at 24,266.10 points on NIFTY. The lows were made on Friday at 75,474.43 points and at 23,606.30 points. The recovery on Friday was sharp if one were to consider the blood bath during the week. Does this augur for a better week going forward, would be a big question mark. 

The Indian Rupee was under pressure and lost 28 paisa or 0.29% to close at Rs 96.68 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones lost on three of the five trading sessions and gained on two. It lost 199.15 points or 0.38% to close at 51,947.25 points. 

There were three listings on the main board last week. The first was from SBI Funds Management Limited which had issued shares at Rs 574. Shares listed on Tuesday the 21st of July at Rs 610 and closed at Rs 609.90. By weekend the share slipped and closed at Rs 587.20, a gain of Rs 13.20 or 2.30%. The performance could be termed as disappointing. Grey market premium during the tenure of the IPO opening, bidding and even up to listing day moved between Rs 90-100 and reality is in front of us. This clearly demonstrates that grey market and listing are two different planets and must be looked at in the same manner.   

The second share to list was Alpine Texworld Limited which had issued shares at Rs 105. Shares listed on Tuesday the 21st of July at Rs 105 and closed at Rs 99.75. By weekend the share slipped and closed at Rs 85.60, a loss of Rs 19.40 or 18.48%.

The third share to list was from Caliber Mining and Logistics Limited which had issued shares at Rs 424. Shares listed on Friday the 24th of July at Rs 504 and closed at Rs 528.50, a gain of Rs 104.50 or 24.65%. 

The week ahead has a mega issue from Manipal Health Enterprises Limited which is raising Rs 9,275.22 crores in a price band of Rs 560-590. The issue is a fresh issue with a small offer for sale component of Rs 1,275 crores. The issue opens on Wednesday the 29th of July to Friday the 31st of July. Manipal Hospital is the largest hospital chain in the country with domination in presence in three of the markets it is present in. These include in Sothern India, Eastern India and micro markets of Pune and Western India. Its new upcoming hospital in Mumbai will further increase its size and presence. It plans to add over 3,000 beds to its existing size of 13,000 beds approx. Healthcare in the organized sector and particularly in corporate sector is rapidly growing in the country and slowly and surely it is getting better organized with large groups entering the fray. This would be someone coming right at the top in terms of capacity and reach. Investment is warranted for the medium to long term.

The week ahead sees July NIFTY Futures expire on Tuesday the 28th of July. The current level of NIFTY at 23,767.45 points is a mere 98.30 points or 0.41% lower than the series open of 23,865.75 points. The series is wide open and anything can happen in the two days remaining. With the kind of fall witnessed last week and the late recovery on Friday, I would tilt the battle in favor of the bulls. Expect them to carry the series through. 

Coming to the markets in the coming week, markets broke through the resistance band and then pulled back. All is not lost but we are trading on thin ice. The lows made on Friday at 23,606 points or say 23,600 points are the last support for the trading band of 23,800-24,300 points. If this low were to break, we would open up levels of 23,100-23,300 points. On the upside if the low is not violated and we manage to move up to levels of 24,000 points again, the band would be restored and we would likely see the band taking markets upwards. Very clearly its crucial time in the week ahead. 

Strategy would be to keep strict stop losses and trade. Number of primary market issuances would add to the pressure in the market place besides gulf tensions. 

Trade cautiously.