Iran-US Deal to be signed on 19th June after G-7 Summit

Markets continued their choppy and volatile behavior. They were negative at the end of four days and then Friday happened, when for the first time it looked as if the Iran-US war would have an agreement on the weekend. Wonder why? The G-7 meets in the early part of the week in France and Donald Trump has to have something to talk about. Even though on the one hand a peace agreement is talked about, even as this article is being written on Sunday morning, Iran has attacked US assets in the Middle East. Iran knows how to pile on the pressure. It’s not a done deal till it’s signed and Iran has the upper hand. 

BSESENSEX gained on three of the five trading sessions while NIFTY gained on two of the five trading sessions. BSESENSEX gained 1,284.61 points or 1.73% to close at 75,527.95 points while NIFTY gained 256.20 points or 1.10% to close at 23,622.90 points. BANKNIFTY gained 2,318.55 points or 4.25% to close at 56,814.80 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 0.97%, 0.67% and 0.57% respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 2.73% while BSESMALLCAP was down 2.35%. The intraweek high and low on BSESENSEX and NIFTY were at 75,608.02 points and 23,645.35 points, and 73,318.94 points and 23,070.15 points respectively. The lows were made on Monday while the highs were made on Friday. In what is significant is that markets were negative at the end of Thursday and it is Friday’s rally of 1,695 points on BSESENSEX and 461 points on NIFTY on Friday, which actually turned the tide. 

The Indian Rupee rallied strongly on the fall in the price of crude and gained 12 paisa or 0.13% to close at Rs 94.83 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on three of the five trading sessions and lost on two. It was up 335.48 points or 0.66% up to close at 51,202.26 points.   

There were two mainboard listings during the week gone by. The first was from CMR Green Technologies Limited which had allotted shares at Rs 192. Shares listed on Wednesday and opened at Rs 275.40 on BSE and Rs 268 on NSE. They closed at the lower circuit of the day at Rs 247.90 on BSE and Rs 241.20 on NSE. While the share gained Rs 55.90 on BSE and Rs 49.20 on NSE, the record book will say that shares closed at lower circuit. By the end of the week, the shares gained further to close at Rs 252, a gain of Rs 60 or 31.25%. 

The second share to list was Hexagon Nutrition Limited which had issued shares at Rs 45. The share listed on Friday and closed at upper circuit of Rs 50.39, a gain of Rs 5.39 or 9.54%. 

Markets were week during the opening of the week, yet levels of 23,000 points held strong and were not violated. The support for next week therefore exists at the levels of 23,000 points and lower at 22,800 points. With NIFTY making a high of 23,645 points and closing at 23,622 points, first resistance comes at levels of 23,800 and further higher at 24,250 points. 

Coming to the markets, G-7 will be held between 15th and 17th June in Evian in France. Donald Trump has to talk about how great his diplomacy is and therefore he will do everything in his power to prove that the Iran-US war is resolved. This is probably an agreement to be finalized over the next 60 days. The key factor is that oil prices have begun to soften and that would be a relief to world markets. In news of market relevance, USA has become the world’s top exporter of crude for the 3rd consecutive month in a row. They have sold oil from their strategic reserves and have timed the same to perfection with the Iran deal. 

Iran and the US have agreed to a ceasefire and would sign an accord on the 19th of June. The stumbling block could be Israel and its continued aggression on Lebanon. While Trump will have something to talk about at the G-7, it is not a signed deal as yet.  

While Monday morning is likely to see fireworks, Trump being Trump, one needs to hold your horses. The strategy would be to continue with intraday trades and avoid large overnight positions for the coming week. G-7 summit will be crucial and important. 

Trade cautiously.

Performance of Newly Listed Shares as on 12th June

Name Date of Listing Issue Price Closing Price Closing Price % Gain/Loss % Change Over
120626 50626 Over Week Issue Price
Amagi Media Labs Limimited 21st January 361.00 424.25 418.25 1.43 17.52
Shadowfax Technologies Limited 28th January 124.00 218.15 200.90 8.59 75.93
Fractal Analytics Limited 16th February 900.00 950.85 1003.80 -5.27 5.65
Aye Finance Limited 16th February 129.00 150.00 147.15 1.94 16.28
Gaudiumn IVF & Women Health Limited 27th February 79.00 99.15 105.35 -5.89 25.51
Clean Max Enviro Energy Solutions Limited 2nd March 1053.00 1253.70 1219.40 2.81 19.06
Shree Ram Twistex Limited 2nd March 104.00 40.91 41.76 -2.04 -60.66
PNGS Reva Diamond Jewellery Limited 4th March 386.00 379.05 381.75 -0.71 -1.80
Sedemac Mechatronics Limited 11th March 1352.00 2771.10 2367.40 17.05 104.96
Rajputana Stainless Limited 19th March 122.00 131.05 130.50 0.42 7.42
Innovision Limited 23rd March 519.00 289.25 295.55 -2.13 -44.27
GSP Crop Science Limited 24th March 320.00 449.30 441.10 1.86 40.41
Raaj Marg Infra Limited 24th March 100.00 112.00 111.09 0.82 12.00
CMPDI Limited 30th March 172.00 238.40 237.40 0.42 38.60
Powerica Limited 3rd April 395.00 459.65 499.50 -7.98 16.37
Sai Parenteral Limited 3rd April 392.00 567.15 545.80 3.91 44.68
AmirChand Jagdishkumar (Exports) Limited 3rd April 212.00 123.50 120.70 2.32 -41.75
Om Power Transmission Limited 17th April 175.00 177.85 182.50 -2.55 1.63
Citius Transnet Investment Trust 29th April 100.00 106.29 106.60 -0.29 6.29
OnEMI Technology Solutions Limited 8th May 171.00 270.95 269.80 0.43 58.45
Bagmane Prime Office Reit 14th May 100.00 103.34 103.35 -0.01 3.34
CMR Green Technologies Limited 10th June 192.00 252.00 N A 31.25 31.25
Hexagon Nutrition Limited 12th June 46.00 50.39 N A 9.54 9.54

Biggest stumbling block to Middle East peace is Israel’s continuing attacks on Lebanon

Markets went through the motions and five days were over, with nothing achieved. The sad part of the current geo-political mess is that the so called aggressor or peace maker is not sure how he can quit the war. We are almost a 100 day old war now and it seems like it started just the other day. When will it be over, ‘Only Trump Knows’. Hopefully!

Our markets fell on three of the five trading sessions and gained on two. BSESENSEX lost 532.40 points or 0.71% to close at 74,243.34 points while NIFTY lost 181.05 points or 0.77% to close at 23,366.70 points. BANKNIFTY gained 257.05 points or 0.47% to close at 54,496.25 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 0.84%, 0.90% and 0.78% respectively. BSEMIDCAP was down 2.17% while BSESMALLCAP lost 0.14%. The top sectorial gainer was BSECONSUMER DURABLE which gained 1.68% while the top loser was BSEPOWER which lost 2.96%. 

The Indian Rupee gained 19 paisa or 0.20% to close at Rs 94.95 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on three of the five trading sessions and lost on two. It was down 165.68 points or 0.32% to close at 50,866.78 points. 

RBI had its MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meet during the 3rd to 5th of June. At the end of the same it decided unanimously to keep interest rates unchanged. Repo rate would remain unchanged at 5.25%. This also reflects the ‘neutral’ stance of the committee. Looking at the geopolitical conditions on the Middle East crisis, RBI lowered the Real GDP growth projection from 6.9% to 6.6%. It also revised upwards CPI inflation for FY27 to 5.1%. 

The IPO from CMR Green Technologies Limited received excellent response. The entirely offer for sale was open from Wednesday the 3rd of June to Friday the 5th of June. The price band was Rs 182-192. The issue was well received and had excellent response. It was subscribed a massive 127.04 times and received 33.30 lakh applications. QIB portion was subscribed 270.46 times, HNI portion 172.35 times and Retail portion 27.03 times. 

The highs and lows for the week on BSESENSEX and NIFTY were at 75,367.93 and 23,733.70 respectively while the lows were at 73,492.60 and 23,161.50 points. While the highs were made on the opening day of the week, the lows were made midweek on Wednesday. 

Coming to the week ahead in our markets, one doesn’t get a nice feeling sitting just before trading for the week actually happens. The events unfolding in the Middle East point to a badly cornered and confused US President who is not able to find an honorable exit. Already Iran has given an option even about the contentious enriched uranium that it is willing to give it to China, something that I have been talking about a couple of weeks ago. What this does for the ongoing war is that it strengthens Iran’s position and puts USA and Israel in a bigger spot than ever before with their once issue of Nuclear capability. 

Surpassing levels of 23,600 points on NIFTY will be a challenge and the resistance would be the top of last week at 23,733 and more broadly speaking around 23,800 points. On the support side we have support at levels of 23,150 points which happens to be the low of last week and even lower at 22,800 points. One gets an uncanny feeling with FPI’s continuing to be aggressive sellers we could see markets under pressure in the coming week. RBI has made investments in some securities attractive for FPI’s. They have abolished tax on G-Sec and also long term capital gains tax beyond 12 months for this category. There would be positive news because of this but it may take some time for inflows to begin. 

The strategy for the week would be to restrict trading to intraday and avoid large overnight positions. The Middle East crisis seems to be never ending and is becoming more complex with each passing day. Trade cautiously.

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