Markets were in s super-duper mood last week and gained substantial ground with the BSESENSEX gaining 847.96 points or 3.14% and NIFTY 291.90 points or 3.50%. The gains were across the board and none of the sectors lost ground with the one to gain the least was BSEIT at a mere 0.53%.
January series futures expired with gains of 499.15 points or 6.16% to close at 8,602.75 points. The performance for the month was good and 250 points were gained in the last three days of the month.
In primary market news the CPSE-ETF would be listing on Tuesday. The issue had received excellent response and was oversubscribed. Allotment to retail investors would be in full and pension funds would get the rest. There would be no allotment to HNI’s or QIB’s in this follow on fund offer. The gains made by the market would certainly help investors as the NAV would have risen during the week.
The offer for sale from BSE Limited was highly successful and oversubscribed 51.22 times. This issue has created a new record in terms of number of applications received at 11.95 lakhs bettering the previous one of 10.90 lacs in the case of L&T Infotech last year. Talking of listing there is speculation whether BSE would trade on BSE. If one goes back in time when NSE began trading there were no companies listed on the NSE. They traded in the ‘permitted to trade category’ which meant that they were trading without onus of any obligations to the exchange. They paid no listing fees and were not obliged to be regulated, answerable or mandated to provide information. Some time ago when MCX-SX began they too had large number of scrips listed under the permitted to trade segment. I believe the same would happen in the case of BSE Limited as well where it would list on NSE and also trade in the permitted to trade segment on the BSE. This is convention and the past practice. Any changes this time around are neither known nor expected.
The union budget would be presented on Wednesday the 1st of February. This time would mark the beginning of there being no separate rail budget and it would be part of the Union Budget. With elections to be held immediately after the budget, it is expected to be populist. Up Until that point there is no concern of the market, but if populism comes at the cost of crushing industry or taxing the producers, markets would not like it.
Markets expect that the budget would lower tax rates and raise the slabs so that effectively people would have to pay lower tax. It is very important that going forward it makes sense to be tax compliant rather than being a tax evader and cost of tax avoidance increases sharply. It is also expected that rates of STT on trading and derivatives would be increased and that on delivery based trade be reduced to encourage deliveries and therefore investment into the market whether it be direct or through mutual funds.
Markets would be super volatile in the coming week with two days of trading before the budget. The economic survey would be presented on Tuesday followed by the budget on Wednesday. Trade cautiously in the coming week.
