RBI Meeting to Decide Trend

Markets continued to gain strength and rose for the third consecutive week. BSESENSEX was up 298.61 points or 0.85% to close at 35,457.16 points. NIFTY was up 97 points or 0.92% up at 10,682.20 points. Broder markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 0.69%, 0.61% and 0.45% respectively. Markets gained on three of the five trading days, were down on one day and remained flat on the fifth day.

Dow Jones was under pressure and lost 576.08 points or 2.22% to close at 25,413.22 points. The Indian Rupee continued to gain strength and was up 57 paisa or 0.79% to close at 71.92. Expiry is still 9 trading sessions away and the bulls have an upper hand with the series up 557.30 points or 5.50% higher.

RBI has its board meeting on Monday and the fireworks which were being expected seem to have fizzled out, at least for the time being. The thorny issues between RBI and the government seem to have been sorted out in the meetings between RBI Governor and the PM and the FM. All is well that ends well should be what is the outcome of the Monday meeting. One hopes that both sides use caution as one doesn’t want the regulator fighting when the economy is passing through tough times. Keeping fingers crossed however.

14th November which was to see a large roll over of commercial paper passed off peacefully and there were no untoward incidents. The only fall out is that investors in mutual fund instruments have become choosy in selecting funds and are avoiding those with investments in some of these so called risky NBFC’s.

Crude prices continued to be under pressure and to expect some bounce back would be in place. Further OPEC is to meet to introduce further cuts in production. Whenever such things happen and are intended to hurt global economies, some one does not follow the diktat. Let’s hope something of this sort happens this time around as well.

Tata Sons is in preliminary talks with Jet Airways. While this is just the first-round meeting markets have jumped into the same thinking the final contours of the deal would be announced shortly. Tatas have always been cherishing the idea of having a dominating role to play in aviation and already have two joint ventures in Vistara and Air Asia. When Jet does happen, they would catapult into a dominant player though not the largest. Keep watching this space for further updates.

Pressure on the economy has eased with crude prices softening and the rupee recovering. This would make things a little easier for the deficit to be kept under control.

The week ahead would see consolidation and make attempts to reach higher levels. The overall range would however be narrow and there would be an upward bias. Use rallied to sell and dips to buy as mentioned in the previous week as well.

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