The markets have been on a roll and one is not sure what fundamental factors have brought about these changes. Look at how things have moved. On the 28th of August the SENSEX made a low of 17,448 which is the low for the current calendar year as well. On Thursday the 19th of September we made a high of 20,739 which is also the high of the year. What is the difference between these 15 trading sessions that the markets gained over 3000 points or 17%? Similar levels for the NIFTY are 5,118 the low and the high 6,142.50 points, the gain 1,024 points or 20%.

Nothing has changed, the rupee has been depreciating, but call it the conspiracy theory it seems to hold water. Let us look at FII flows. Between the 28th and the end of August they were net sellers of equity of Rs 1,085 crs. In the entire month of August net sales of Rs 6,200 crs. In September as of 20th September they have bought equities worth Rs 8,500 crs, which can be termed as decent but not enough to move the NIFTY by 20%. The rupee has appreciated from a low of just about Rs 69 to levels of Rs 62.23. The entire move seems a little fishy and on unexplainable.

The FED decides not to taper the quantitative easing and we gain 700 points on the SENSEX. The new governor Raghuram Rajan raises repo rates by 25 basis points and after crashing over 600 points we settle with losses of 383 points. To put things in perspective we are a global economy and in the same period 28th August to 20th September the Dow Jones has moved from 14,824 to 15,451 a gain of 627 points or 4.22%.

I do not have enough evidence to make a point about the conspiracy theory but with elections round the corner, the rupee moving so swiftly, the market movement does leave pointers. I hope it is food fort thought.