Ruchi Soya to be debt free after FPO

Ruchi Soya Industries Ltd is tapping the capital markets with its follow-on public offer (FPO). The issue would raise Rs4,300 crores in a price band of Rs615-650. The issue would open on Thursday the 24th of March and close on Monday the 28th of March. The current market price as of today (22nd March is Rs914 on BSE, implying a steep discount of Rs264 or 28.9 per cent to the current price. The 52-week high and low on BSE is Rs1,377-619. This means that the issue is being priced closer to its 52-week low and offers investors an opportunity to be part of a growth story.

The present promoter holding in the company is 98.90 per cent. The dilution at the top end of the price band would be about 18.19 per cent and make the public float about 19.30 per cent post the issue. The company would have till the end of the current calendar year to bring the public shareholding to 25 per cent.

The company is into the business of edible oils, oil palm plantation, edible soya flour and textured soya products, oleochemicals, honey and atta, noodles and breakfast cereals, biscuits, cookies and rusk, nutraceuticals and wellness and also renewable energy. During the last two years, the company has added the FMCG business and FMHG business to its portfolio.

Ruchi Soya Industries Limited was acquired by the Patanjali group through the ‘IBC’ process. The acquisition was a clean company without any baggage or past liabilities. The company has been turned around completely and is a profit-making company. The company is an Indian MNC with products across the FMCG and FMHG business verticals. There is a certain amount of overlap between what Patanjali does and what Ruchi Soya does. To get rid of these issues, the management has taken a conscious decision to bring all food business under the Ruchi Soya brand and management. To this end, the biscuits, breakfast cereals and noodles business was transferred to Ruchi Soya from Patanjali as a slump sale in May-June of 2021 at a cost of Rs60 crores. Going forward the remaining food business would also be transferred on similar lines.

The nutraceutical business is a new addition to the Ruchi Soya stable. They are into three types of products catering to general, medical and sports needs. Ruchi Soya outsources/contract manufactures from various vendors including Patanjali. Currently they have about 20 products and the same would increase steadily to double in the next six months. This is a big segment and would see robust growth in the coming quarters. A great USP of these products is that they are 100% vegetarian.

The palm cultivation is another thrust area for Ruchi. They have been allotted almost 3 lac hectares to do palm farming. Currently 57,000 hectares bear fruit and the company is producing about 75,000-80,000 tons of palm fruit annually which is further processed into oil and other by-products. This activity is highly profitable and is beneficial to the company and also the farmer who grows and cultivates palm plantations. This is an asset light model with no investment by Ruchi in the cultivation business.

The first part of the food business transfer plan already completed involved biscuits, noodles and breakfast cereals. The run rate of these three products put together has already crossed Rs100 crores per month and is a profitable business for the company. The products compete with the best in the category available in the country. Coming to the performance of the company, revenues reported for the six months ended September 2021 were Rs11,306.98 crores, EBITDA was Rs706.54 crores while Profit before Tax was Rs459.08 crores. If one looks at the three months ended December 2021 as the company is a listed company, these numbers show revenues at Rs6,280 crores, EBITDA at Rs352.75 crores and Profit before tax at Rs319.61 crores. The company earned an EPS of Rs23.02 for the year ended March 2021 which is Rs 11.42 in the period April to September 21 and has improved to Rs19.33 in the nine-month period ended December 2021. The PE for the company based on March 21 earnings is 26.72- 28.24 times. This compares very favourably with the peer group as mentioned by the company in the RHP. The NAV of the company as of 30th September was Rs148.82 which would improve to Rs237.95 – 240.43 depending upon the allotment price.

Coming to the prospects of the company, it is very well poised to take advantage of the niche segments it operates in. Considering the focus on palm plantation, food products and nutraceuticals, it would be fair to assume that their would-be significant growth in the top line and improvement in margins at the EBITDA and net levels. The object of the issue consists of a large part of repayment of debt of the company and it becoming a net debt-free company post the FPO. This would reflect in a saving of around Rs280-300 crores in interest in the coming year which would flow to the bottom line. While this is a fresh issue and would result in dilution of roughly 18% of equity, the earnings would get more than compensated with the increased earnings on account of interest saving. For the sake of simplicity, one is not considering the growth in the acquired businesses from the food segment, nutraceuticals which is a new vertical and so on.

The company offers investors ample opportunities for growth and returns on listing and for those looking to invest for the medium to long term.

Markets trading higher than Ukraine war beginning – Allow consolidation to happen

The week gone by was a short week with just four trading sessions. Markets saw gains on three of the four trading sessions and gained substantially. BSESENSEX was up 2,313.60 points or 4.16% to close at 57,863.93 points while NIFTY gained 656.60 points or 3.95% to close at 17,287.05 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 3.78%, 3.56% and 3.41% respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 2.21% while BSESMALLCAP was up 2.08%.

The Indian Rupee gained 79 paisa or 1.03% to close at Rs 75.80 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones had a great showing and was up 1,810.74 points or 5.50% to close at 34,754.93 points.

The Russia-Ukraine war will complete one month in another three days. The attack had begun on Thursday the 24th of February. The level of BSESENSEX and NIFTY on the previous day (23rd February) was at 57,232.06 points and 17,063.25 points. The low was made on 8th March at 52,260.82 points and 15,671.45 points. The closing levels on Thursday were 57,863.93 points and 17,287.05 points respectively. The effect of the war on Indian markets lasted a mere seven days with the bottom being established on the eight-trading day. (8th March). Thereafter in another seven days markets have overtaken the levels from where they began to fall. As of the weekly closing, we are up about 650 points on BSESENSEX and about 220 points on NIFTY.

No effect of supply constraints, disruption, runaway rise in commodity prices, edible crude oil, crude oil prices, which have now come down. Sanctions imposed on Russia and people who would trade with them. Looking at the markets in their current state it appears as if there was no war.

The US FED has raised interest rates for the first time since 2018 and kept the rate at 0.25%-0.50%. The tone of the press conference was extremely hawkish and experts believe that going forward one would see 4-5 rate hikes in the coming 12 months or earlier. The US government is concerned at inflation which is ruling at a 42 year high since 1980.

Russia is alleging that US has financed the setting up and running of biological warfare labs in Ukraine which has become a matter of serious concern. While aggression, bombing and surrounding of key cities and towns in Ukraine continues, talks are also being contemplated with little or no result. When the two parties will thrash out a solution is anybody’s guess.

In economic news in India, gross tax collections for the current financial year have been extremely robust at Rs 13.63 lac crs against 9.18 lac crs in the previous year at the same time. A buoyant stock market has also helped matters and the collections on the STT front are an indication of this where the revised estimate which was increased has been crossed as well.

The follow-on public offer from Ruchi Soya of Rs 4,300 crs would open on Thursday the 24th of March and close on Monday the 28th of March. The price band as announced on the stock exchanges today, is a very attractive Rs 615-650. If one looks at the closing price as of 17th March of Rs 1,004.45, the discount is around 35% at the top end. Even if one considers the price prevailing one week ago when the issue dates were announced of Rs 804, the discount at the top end is more than decent amount of 20%. Very clearly the intention of the company is to give a sweet deal to new investors who would become a part of the company post this follow-on offer.

Indian oil companies have been buying Russian crude at deep discounts and the overall share of Russian crude in the oil basket has gone up substantially. With the lifting of sanctions on Iran, Iran has offered to supply crude to India by reviving the Rupee-Rial trade as well. These two steps would help reduce the pressure on the Indian government on account of rising crude price worries.

Geo political tensions will continue to dominate the world markets in the coming weeks. The fact that losses on account of war have been wiped out from Indian markets and also the US markets, its time to look at the risk-reward profile from hereon. All the risks have disappeared as far as market level or stock price is concerned. What remains is the head winds on all those fronts. One does not know the impact of war because there seems no time frame in which this could be resolved. The impact of interest rate hike in US has to be understood by markets and digested. Corporate results are just a fortnight away and it would be interesting to see how corporates have fared.

Coming to the markets in the week ahead, it seems war impact has been felt and more than neutralised in just 7+7 trading days. In 15 days, it’s all over as if Russia-Ukraine never happened. The possibility of timing the bottom and the sharp rally has also been felt. Going forward it would be business as usual. The strategy would be to sell on any rallies and wait for meaningful corrections before re-entering the markets. The chances of sharp rallies would also reduce from hereon as we enter the phase where markets look for consolidation more than anything else. A safe strategy would be to restrict oneself to the large cap space only. Trade cautiously and allow markets to consolidate.

Performance of Newly Listed Shares as on 17th March 2022

Name Date of Listing Issue Price Closing Price Closing Price % Gain Loss % Change Over
      170322 110322 Over Week lssue Price
Tarsons Products Limited 26th November 662.00 687.80 674.45 1.98 3.90
Go Fashion (India) Limited 30th November 690.00 949.25 885.45 7.21 37.57
Star Health and Allied Insurance 10th December 900.00 637.60 636.75 0.13 -29.16
Tega Industries 13th December 453.00 472.75 457.80 3.27 4.36
Anand Rathi Wealth Limited 14th December 550.00 570.00 574.55 -0.79 3.64
Rate gain Travel Technologies Limited 17th December 425.00 334.30 305.40 9.46 -21.34
Shriram Properties Limited 20th December 118.00 78.70 80.80 -2.60 -33.31
C.E.Info Systems Limited 21st December 1033.00 1533.80 1509.30 1.62 48.48
Metro Brands Limited 22nd December 500.00 573.55 547.50 4.76 14.71
Medplus Health Services Limited 23rd December 796.00 998.25 1005.25 -0.70 25.41
Data Patterns Limited 24th December 585.00 670.85 661.80 1.37 14.68
H P Adhesives Limited 27th December 274.00 383.75 391.90 -2.08 40.05
Supriya Life Science Limited 28th December 274.00 465.35 449.20 3.60 69.84
CMS Info Sytem Limited 31st December 216.00 263.05 258.60 1.72 21.78
AGS Transact Technologies Limited 31st January 175.00 103.40 107.40 -3.72 -40.91
Adani Wilmar Limited 8th February 230.00 379.70 344.45 10.23 65.09
Vedant Fashions Limited 16th February 866.00 899.90 876.60 2.66 3.91
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