The week was bad as bad can be. Markets lost on all five days of the week and ended on a very bearish note. It seems India is caught in the crosshairs of Donald Trump and has now become the sacrificial pawn between two mighty nations Russia and China on one side and USA on the other. Geopolitics is taking its toll on our markets which are still expensive. Add to it the constant supply of new paper, consistent selling by FPI’s and promoters and PE indulging in offer for sale every week. We have a situation where the plate even after being full, offers multiple choices and tempts you. It’s confusing and tempting at the same time. 

BSESENSEX lost 2,199.77 points or 2.66% to close at 80,426.46 points while NIFTY lost 672.35 points or 2.65% to close at 24,654.70 points. BANKNIFTY lost 1,069.50 points or 1.93% to close at 54,389.35 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE299 and BSE500 lose 2.93%, 3.09% and 3.27% respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 4.52% while BSESMALLCAP was down 4.29%. There were no sectorial gainers but the one to lose the least was BSEMETAL down 1.29%. The top loser was BSEIT down 7.34%. Things were bad and losses were suffered across the board. USA has imposed 100% tariff on branded and patented pharmaceutical products imported into USA from India. Generics have been left out from the levy. It appears his anger is not only against India but also against American citizens as they would have to pay the brunt of these increased costs indirectly when health insurance premiums rise. 

Let’s Make America Great Again ‘MAGA’, not sure, whether the path on which he is treading will lead to it or not, but currently he has ensured that economies worldwide are caught in Trump tariffs turbulence. 

The Indian Rupee lost 62 paisa or 0.70% to close at Rs 88.72 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones lost on three of the five trading sessions and was up on two. It lost 67.28 points or 0.15% to close at 46,247.29 points. 

September futures would be expiring on Tuesday the 30th of September. This is the first monthly expiry to happen on Tuesday after NSE changed the expiry dates. The current state of the series is that it is up 153.80 points or 0.63% higher than the series open of 24,500.90 points. Considering the volatility in the market currently where we lost 672 points last week, indicating an average daily loss of 135 points and Friday’s loss of 236 points, anything could happen. Momentum is with the bears but there could be a technical bounce as well. One would have to play by the ear. However, markets are in a state of flux. 

Primary issues on the main board are happening thick and fast and are becoming worrisome. There is a huge fundraising that will happen with roadshows during the coming short four day week. Tata Capital Limited would kick off its road show in Mumbai today (29th September) for its offer for sale of 47.58 crore shares in a price band of Rs 310-326. The company had declared an EPS of Rs 9.3 for the year ended March 25. The PE band for the company is 33.3-35.1. The shares of Tata Finance were traded on the unlisted market and were in the range of 735-810 in recent months. The high of the share in calendar year 2025 to date was Rs 1,125. This would be the third time that investors through the unlisted space would face a reality check after the recent issues of HDB Financial and NSDL. How would markets react to this during the day, am little unsure. From a prospective investor’s perspective, its great news while shareholder’s perspective it’s a disaster. 

Talking of IPO’s, Wework India Management Limited is also having its road show today for its upcoming IPO which would raise Rs 3,000 crores through an OFS in a price band of Rs 615-648. This would be followed by the long awaited issue from L G Electronics which would happen on Wednesday the 1st of October. Market expectations are that the issue size would be Rs 10, 000 crores bringing this total of three issues to a staggering Rs 28,000 crores in a span of seven days. There are of course other issues which would now wait for the refund of these shares waiting on the sidelines for their turn. Interesting times depending on which way you want to look at things. 

RBI’s MPC or monetary policy committee meeting would be held from September 29 to October 1 and the outcome would be announced on 1st October. There is a great possibility that rates could be cut by 25 basis points. However, the uncertainty on the tariff front will be on RBI’s mind when considering whether to do or not. 

Coming to the markets in the four day week which has a holiday on Thursday the 2nd of October for Gandhi Jayanti and Dusshera and is preceded by NIFTY futures expiry on Tuesday, it would be choppy, volatile and should see significant movements in both directions. Level of 24,300 on NIFTY is a significant support and there should be some upward movement from these levels even if the same is short lived. Further down, support exists in a band of 23,600-23,800. On the upside, resistance is at 24,800-24,900 levels. What can be a big trigger is finalization of USA-India trade deals. Currently what we are seeing is an administration hell bent on causing undue harm to India on some reason or the other, simply because the same could not be done to China or Russia. 

The strategy would be to lie low and indulge in intraday trading and do research for portfolio building. July-September results will start kicking in in the next seven days and they will give a fair indication of where corporate India stands. Portfolio building would be great this time around end October when most of the unknowns and results would be behind us. Further, the markets being expensive would also have corrected itself largely, making it that much more attractive. 

Trade very cautiously.

The last week saw markets gaining on all five trading sessions after a very long time. The last time it happened was almost six months ago in the week of 16th March 20 21st March when the indices gained a massive 3,076 points or 4.17% on BSESENSEX and an impressive 953.20 points or 4.26% on NIFTY. This week the gains were not so impressive but nonetheless it was a clean sweep. BSESENSEX gained 1,193.94 points or 1.48% to close at 81,904.70 points while NIFTY gained 373 points or 1.51% BANK NIFTY was up 694.74 points or 1.28% to close at 54,809.50 points. The broader indices like BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 saw them gain 1.59%, 1.62% and 1.61% respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 1.59% while BSESMALLCAP gained 1.51%. The top sectorial gainer was BSECAPITAL GOODS, up 4.25% while the only loser was BSECONSUMER GOODS, down 1.19%. 

The Indian rupee was unchanged at Rs 88.27 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on three of the five trading sessions and lost on two. It was up 433.36 points or 0.95% to close at 45,834.22 points. 

Infosys announced its largest ever buyback of shares. The price would be at Rs 1,800 per share and the amount kept aside is a staggering Rs 18,000 crores. This effectively means that 10 crore shares would be accepted in the buyback. Shares of the company rose from Rs 1,444 to Rs 1,526 on this count last week. They were up Rs 82 or 5.67% and were a decent contributor to the rally last week. The premium compared to Friday’s close is Rs 274 or 17.95%. 

Gold prices are boiling. They are at new all-time highs and closed the week at $ 3,643 per ounce and Rs 1.08,980 for 10 grams of 24K. On a year to date basis gold is up 27% and it appears the present rally has legs. Global turmoil and the way Central Banks the world over are buying gold, is fuelling the rally. 

The key factor supporting markets is hope and expectation that the Trump retaliatory tariffs issue would be amicably resolved. While there is hope there is a possibility. The fact also remains that all his claims of resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict have fallen flat. So much so that its eight months since he became the President of the United States of America and we haven’t moved any closer. Further, the de-dollarization is making things worse for the American economy. Diverse nations seem to be teaming up and making new pacts to remove the dependency on the mighty dollar for their business and economic deals. In such a situation it would be time for the US to think about its ever mounting debt and the fact that it is a currency which is not backed by gold reserves, to the extent of currency in circulation. 

The US Fed would be considering an interest rate cut in its upcoming meeting. There is another meeting happening on Tuesday and Wednesday in the coming week of the FED where there would be lot of data coming out. Depending on what the US does, there would be expectation that interest rates in India could see yet another cut post the GST rejig and benign inflation rates. The monsoon has also been good and at many places excess as well. 

Coming to the week ahead, support would exist at levels of 24,800 points and lower down at 24,300 points. On resistance front, the immediate target is 25,300 points. If this is taken out and sustained, next level would be at 25,550 points. Is the same doable or not depends on news flow. 

The strategy would be to keep positions light on an intraday basis and await clarity before jumping in. Remember that FPIs have been sellers and till date have sold Rs 1.43 lakh crores approximately in eight and a half months. Add to this the spate of public issues, OFS and PE selling that markets is witnessing. There is enough paper available for everyone. With Indian trade delegation visiting the US for trade talks, hopefully by the time Navratri is done and dusted, we should have clarity.

Trade cautiously.