Markets to remain volatile in Uncertain times

It was a short four-day week identical to the previous one, with a mid-week holiday on Wednesday. Markets were under pressure and lost on three of the four trading days. The BSESENSEX lost 953.58 points or 1.95% to close at 47,878.45 points while NIFTY lost 276.50 points or 1.89% to close at 14,341.35 points. The broader market saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 1.86%, 1.71% and 1.58% respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 1.01% wile BSESMALLCAP lost a mere 0.06%. The top performing sector was BSEHEALTHCARE which gained 1.36% while the worst was BSEREALTY which was down 3.45%.

Dow Jones lost 174.41 points or 0.51% to close at 34,043.49 points. There seems to be confusion in the US markets and they seem to be alternating between losses and gains on alternate days as was witnessed last week. Markets on a daily basis saw negative 123 points on Monday, negative 256 points on Tuesday, positive 316 points on Wednesday, negative 321 points on Thursday and positive 228 points on Friday. The lifetime high was 34,257 points. Concern at this point of time is the imposition of capital gains tax by the Biden administration of a steep 43% which is likely in the coming days. The Indian Rupee lost 66 paisa or 0.89% to close at Rs 75.01 to the US Dollar.

Results season continue to throw up impressive results so far. ICICI Bank reported more than doubling of its net profit for the full year 2020-2021, even as the fourth quarter saw the profits move up more than 2.6 times. Profit for the year was at Rs 16,192 crs versus 7,930 crs. Similarly for the fourth quarter it was at Rs 4,402 crs versus 1,221 crs.

Reliance Industries Limited would announce its results on Friday the 30th of April. This week would see the top companies of the benchmark indices almost completing announcing their results and then the results from the next bunch of companies which would also include the not so good results would begin to be announced.

Shares of Macrotech Developers Limited listed on the bourses on Monday the 19th of April. With mayhem on the streets, the share was quite resilient and closed with minor losses of Rs 22.85 or 4.70%. They gained during the remaining part of the week and closed at Rs 530.55, a gain of Rs 44.55 or 9.17%.

The situation on the covd-19 front which had turned worrisome continues to dominate news across India. Maharashtra which was one of the worst affected states, seems to be improving with the number of daily cases dropping or not showing any further signs of increasing. While one cannot say with certainty that the worst is behind us, it can be said that things could get better going forward as individual states peak in the next seven to fifteen days. Secondly with the awareness now becoming clear to all, there seems to be better following of protocols and procedures. The world saw 14,77,83,379 patients, 31,22,538 deaths and 12,53,20,873 patients recovering. In India we saw 1,73,06,300 patients, 1,95,116 deaths and 1,42,96,640 patients recovering. Compared to the previous week the world saw, 57,83,425 new patients, 89,673 deaths and 47,89,188 people recovering. In India we saw, 22,48,533 new patients, 16,323 deaths and 13,47,792 patients recovering.

The week ahead sees April futures expiring on Thursday the 29th of April. Currently the series is ahead by a mere 16.45 or 0.11% points and could go in either direction. The week would see trading on all five days this week. This series could go in either direction at this point of time but looking at the market technical and sentiment, it appears that the bears would have an upper hand.

Readers would recall that over the last couple of weeks I was taking of a band of 48250-50500 on the BSESENSEX and 14250-14900 on the NIFTY. This band has now changed with lower values to read as 46500-49200 on BSESENSEX and 13750-14500 on NIFTY. This implies that markets would continue to be range bound but the range has moved down with markets losing their momentum and shifting their base downwards. It could also be said that their ability to hold on to gains has diminished and they are trading with a negative bias.

The week ahead would continue to be volatile and market movement would be influenced by global cues, results from companies and the covid situation in India. Foreign institutional investors seem to be churning their portfolio and they no longer seem to be one-way buyers. In such a scenario it makes sense to be patient in the market place, sell on rallies and wait for sharp dips before cherry picking stocks. Be patient and bide your time for a bad day as markets are unlikely to run away anytime soon.

Performance of Newly Listed Shares as on 23rd April

Name Date of Listing Issue Price Closing Price Closing Price % Gain Loss % Change Over
      230421 160421 Over Week lssue Price
Indian Railway Finance Corporation Ltd 29th January 26.00 21.10 21.75 -2.99 -18.85
Indigo Paints Limited 2nd February 1490.00 2314.85 2318.15 -0.14 -55.36
Home First Finance Limited 3rd February 518.00 468.70 477.10 -1.76 -9.52
Stovekraft Limited 5th February 385.00 466.15 482.45 -3.38 21.08
Brookfield REIT 16th February 275.00 241.55 241.21 0.14 -12.16
Nureca Limited 25th February 400.00 1279.50 1004.90 27.33 219.88
RailTel Corporation Limited 26th February 94.00 123.20 114.95 7.18 31.06
Heranba Industries Limited 5th March 627.00 659.75 646.40 2.07 5.22
MTAR Technologies Limited 15th March 575.00 959.35 949.20 1.07 66.84
Easy Trip Planners Limited 19th March 187.00 177.85 173.50 2.51 -4.89
Anupam Rasayan Limited 24th March 555.00 588.70 579.80 1.54 6.07
Craftsman Automation Limited 25th March 1490.00 1283.55 1338.55 -4.11 -13.86
Laxmi Organics Limited 25th March 130.00 179.30 191.00 -6.13 37.92
Kalyan Jewellers Limited 26th March 87.00 65.55 68.90 -4.86 -24.66
Suryoday Small Finance Bank Limited 26th March 305.00 249.05 255.70 -2.60 -18.34
Nazara Technologies Limited 30th March 1101.00 1690.30 1618.00 4.47 53.52
Barbeque Nation Hospitality Limited 7th April 500.00 640.60 669.70 -4.35 28.12
Macrotech Developers Limited 19th April 486.00 530.55 N A 9.17 9.17

Macrotech Developers Limited – Muted Listing, closes 4.70% lower on debut

Shares pf Macrotech Developers Limited listed on the bourses and had a muted listing. The company had tapped the capital markets with its fresh issue for Rs 2,500 crs, in a price band of Rs 483-486. The share had a pre-discovery price of Rs 439 on BSE and Rs 436 on NSE. The share closed at Rs 463.15 on BSE and Rs 465.25 on NSE.

The issue was subscribed 1.37 times. The QIB portion was subscribed 3.06 times, HNI portion was subscribed 1.45 times, Retail portion was subscribed 0.40 times and Employee portion was subscribed 0.17 times. There were 1.67 lac applications. Earlier the company had completed allocation to anchor investors. The company allotted 1,52,46,913 shares to 14 anchor investors comprising of 21 entities at Rs 486. The highest allocation was made to Nomura and Ivanhoe OP who were allotted 23.85 lac shares a piece or 15.64% of the anchor allocation. Smallcap World Fund along with American Funds was also allotted 23.85 lac shares or 15.64% of the anchor book. This was followed by Wellington Trust who was allotted 13.41% along with two other funds. The top four anchors were allotted 60.33% of the anchor book.

The issue had opened on Wednesday the 7th of April and closed on Friday the 9th of April.

The discovered price was Rs 439 on BSE at which price, 9,836 shares were traded. The high of the day on BSE was Rs 477.90, low was Rs 421.15 and the close was Rs 463.15, a loss of Rs 22.85 or 4.70%. On NSE, the discovered price was Rs 436 at which price, 8,30,980 shares were traded. The high was Rs 478, low was Rs 422.60 and the close was Rs 465.25, a loss of Rs 20.75 or 4.27%.

Exchange Open High Low Close Net Change % Gain/ Loss Wt.Avg Volume Delivery Del %age
BSE 439.00 477.90 421.15 463.15 -22.85 -4.70 462.96 332874 106550 32.01
NSE 436.00 478.00 422.60 465.25 -20.75 -4.27 464.15 11051365 6643235 60.11
Total 11384239 6749785 59.29

The traded volume on the two exchanges combined was 113.84 lac shares which was 22% of the IPO size of 514.40 lac shares. It was 31% of the non-anchor portion which was 361.93 lac shares. Delivery volume was 67.49 lac shares which was 59.29% of the traded volume. It was 13.12% of the IPO size and 18.65% of the non-anchor portion. Weighted average of the day was Rs 462.96 on BSE and Rs 464.16 on NSE. There were no institutional trades reported on either the buy or the sell side on either of the two exchanges.

Considering the fact that markets fell sharply on Monday on the back of sharp rise in covid-19 cases, the share performance on listing day could be considered as reasonable. With hardly any pressure from retail investors or HNI’s as there was no leveraging, the share could breathe easy going forward. It would be interesting to see how the share fares going further.

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