The week has come to end and this week becomes special because the calendar year 2023 ends at the stroke of midnight as well. The week was a four-day affair with it beginning with a trading holiday on account of Christmas. Markets contrary to expectation gained on three of the four sessions and had a small dip on the very last day of the year. Nothing to be read into but purely coincidental. The week saw BSESENSWEX gain 1,133.30 points or 1.59% to close at 72,240.26 points while NIFTY gained 382.00 points or 1.79% to close at 21,731.40 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.86%, 1.97% and 1.98% respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 2.67% while BSESMALLCAP was up 1.60%. 

Dow Jones gained on three of the four sessions. It has had a great year and for calendar year 2023 gained 4,484.59 points or 13.53% to close at 37,631.87 points. In contrast, the Indian benchmark indices have had a great performance and have outperformed Dow. On a yearly basis, BSESENSEX gained 11,399.52 points or 18.74% to close at 72,240.26 points. Similarly, NIFTY gained 3,626.10 points or 20.03% to close at 21,731.40 points. For the week, Dow was up 303.57 points or 0.81% to close at 37,689.54 points. The rally last year in the markets has been skewed and the bulk of the rally happened in the last couple of months. 

The rally in BSESENSEX was 18.74% of which 26.62% was in the first 10 months and the balance 73.38% in the remaining two months. In the case of NIFTY, the rally in the first 10 months was 26.85% while it was 73.15% in the remaining two months. 

Coming to the last week of the calendar year, we saw December futures expire on a positive note. The series fared very well for the bulls and gained 1,645.55 points or 8.17% t0 close at 21,778.70 points. 

The week gone by was the week of new listings and as many as eight listings happened during the four trading sessions. There were three listings each on Tuesday and Wednesday followed by one on Thursday and Friday. There are no IPOs pending as of date on the main board either to open or list. 

The first to list was Motisons Jewellers Limited which had issued shares at Rs 55. The discovered price on BSE on Tuesday was Rs103.90 and at end of day it closed at Rs 101.18, a gain of Rs 46.18 or 83.96%. By the end of the week, the share had lost further ground and closed at Rs 95.89, a gain of Rs 40.89 or 74.35%. 

The second share to list was Muthoot Microfin Limited which had issued shares at Rs 291. The discovered price was Rs 278, a loss of Rs 13 or 4.46%. Shares closed day one at Rs 266.20, a loss of Rs 24.80 or 8.52%. By the end of the week, the share had slipped further to close at Rs 251.20, a loss of Rs 39.80 or 13.67%. 

The third share to list was Suraj Estate Developers Limited which had issued shares at Rs 360. The discovered price was Rs 343.80, a loss of Rs 16.20 or 4.5%. The share closed day one at Rs 334.30, a loss of Rs 25.70 or 7.13%. By the end of the week, the share lost further to close at Rs 330.60, a loss of Rs 29.40 or 8.17%. 

The fourth share to list was on Wednesday the 27th of December. Shares of Credo Brands Marketing Limited which were issued at Rs 280 listed at Rs 282, a gain of Rs 2 or 0.71%. By end of day, they had gained further to close at Rs 312.50, a gain of Rs 32.50 or 11.60%. By the end of the week, the share lost some ground and closed at Rs 292.40, a gain of Rs 12.40 or 4.43%. 

The fifth share to list was RBZ Jewellers Limited. The share debuted day one at Rs 100 and closed at Rs 104.99. By the end of the week, the share had gained further and closed at Rs 115.74, a gain of Rs 15.74 or 15.74%. 

The sixth share to list was Happy Forgings Limited which had issued shares at Rs 850. The discovered price was Rs 1001.25, a gain of Rs 151.25 or 17.79%. By the end of the week, the share closed at Rs 1,029.10, a gain of Rs 179.10 or 21.07%. 

The seventh share to list was from Azad Engineering Limited which had issued shares at Rs 524. The discovered price was Rs 710, a gain of Rs 186 or 35.49%. Share closed day one at Rs 677.10, a gain of Rs 153.10 or 29.21%. share closed the week at Rs 692.40, a gain of Rs 168.40 or 32.13%. 

The eight and final share to list was Innova Cap tab Limited which had issued shares at Rs 448. The discovered price was Rs 456.10, a gain of Rs 8.10 or 1.80%. Share closed day one at Rs 545.15, a gain of Rs 97.15 or of 21.68%. 

It appears that investors who do intraday trading in newly listed shares have got caught on the wrong foot in Innova Cap Tab. Further in some of the listings, the grey market premiums have just disappeared post the issue getting subscribed. Probably its time to take a fresh look at grey market premiums and on their reliability. Of the eight listings last week, 2 of them are trading at a discount to the issue price. 

Coming to the year, month and week ahead, expect markets to trade in a more circumspect manner. We have seen the best of the markets in the short term and one should expect that January would be a month of sideways movement and correction. There would be no budget on 1st February as this is the election year and there would be a vote on account to take care of government expenditure. The biggest driver for markets would be the quarterly corporate results for the October -December quarter which would begin in the second week of January. Market men are also hoping that FPI buying will continue. 

The strategy would be to look to take some money of the table particularly from the Smallcap and midcap space. Sell into rallies and wait for really deep cuts to re-enter.  Trade cautiously. 

Wishing all readers, a happy, prosperous new year 2024.

Markets were on a smooth course during the last week until a tsunami hit them on Wednesday. Even two trading sessions later what happened on that day remains a mystery. On that fateful day, markets made new highs with BSESENSEX touching 71,913.07 points while NIFTY touched 21,593.00 points and thereafter just gave way. They seemed to have a free fall and lost about 2.00% on an intraday basis and about 1.35% for the day. This broke the momentum of the markets and though they gained over the next two days, the optimism for the time being seems to have faded. BSESENSEX in a week which saw markets gain on three of the five trading sessions lost 376.79 points or 0.53% to close at 71,106.96 points while NIFTY lost 107.25 points or 0.50% to close at 21,349.40 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 0.46%, 0.52% and 0.47% respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 0.87% while BSESMALLCAP was down 0.19%. 

The Indian Rupee lost 14 paisa or 0.17% to close at Rs 83.14 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on two of the five sessions and lost on three sessions. It gained 80.81 points or 0.22% to close at 37,385.97 points.

There were three IPOs which listed during the week. The first to list was Doms Industries Limited which had issued shares at Rs 790. The share closed day one at Rs 1,330.85, a gain of 540.85 or 68.46%. In the next two days, the share lost a tad and closed at Rs 1,305.05, a gain of Rs 515.05 or 65.19%. 

The second share to list was India Shelter Finance Corporation Limited which had issued shares at Rs 493. It closed on listing day at Rs 543.50, a gain of 50.50 or 10.24%. It gained marginally to close the week at Rs 550.25, a gain of Rs 57.25 or 11.61%. 

The third share to list was Inox India Limited which had issued shares at Rs 660. It closed listing day at Rs 939.90, a gain of Rs 279.90 or 42.40%. It lost some ground to close at Rs 910.35, a gain of Rs 250.35 or 37.93%. 

The week ahead begins with a holiday on Monday for Christmas. It is almost a global holiday and most markets are closed. This would be followed by December futures expiring on Thursday the 28th of December. The current value of Dec ember futures at 21,349.40 points shows that the series gain currently is a massive 1,216.25 points or 6.04%. It’s almost impossible for the bears to fight back. They at best could eat into some of the lead and fight back. 

The market has lost its momentum for the time being. The technical indicators too are not in favour of the bulls as FPIs who were at the beginning of the month were net short, have covered them and are long. Further daily cash market purchases in December have now started to alternate between buying and selling. To add to all of this is the fact that markets are overbought. In such a scenario it is expected that markets would be in a sideways manner and would alternate between positive and negative, suffice to say that they would move in a sideways manner and remain in a broad range. The intraday highs made on Wednesday would be a resistance for the near term. 

The strategy for the week would be to buy into sharp dips and sell on rallies as the ensuing week or weeks would be a traders delight with markets moving in a similar broad zone. Trade cautiously.