It was an eventful and extremely volatile week where one saw wild gyrations in both directions. At the end of it, it left the weak hearted gasping for breath and waiting to recover their composure. The net price movement does not reflect the extent of wild swings that one saw. The exit polls on Saturday indicated a sweeping majority for the BJP led NDA but final results showed that the BJP fell short of absolute majority by a good 32 seats. With the allies they were able to go past the number of 272 and the Prime Minister along with his cabinet would be sworn in on Sunday the 9th of June for a third term. 

The BSESENSEX gained 2,732.05 points or 3.69% to close at 76,693.36 points while NIFTY gained 759.45 points or 3.37% to close at 23,290.15 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 3.50%, 3.12% and 3.17% respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 2.94% while BSESMALLCAP was up 3.11%. Let us look at the intraweek movements on the benchmark indices. Post exit polls, BSESENSEX gained 2,487 points while NIFTY gained 808 points. On Tuesday post results, markets saw BSESENSEX lose 6,234 points intraday while NIFTY lost 2,057 points. Over the next three days markets saw BSESENSEX gain 6,561 points while NIFTY gained 2,039 points. At the end of it all, the BSESENSEX saw a movement of intraweek 15,282 points while in the case of NIFTY it was 4,904 points. Markets gained on four of the five trading sessions and lost on one. 

Coming to retail investors and what they did in the markets, contrary to perception about them, they were net sellers when markets rose on Monday and big buyers when markets fell on Tuesday. They bought small on Wednesday when markets recovered. The data from the exchanges shows that retail investors bought directly. To this one must add what retail investors put in through SIPs in mutual funds which have now crossed Rs 25,000 crores monthly.  

The rally on Friday post RBI meeting saw auto stocks, FMCG and IT companies stage a super rally. The top sectoral gainers for the week were BSEIT 8.17%, BSEFMCG 6.93% and BSEAUTO 6.78%. The biggest loser was BSEPSU which was down 1.84%. 

RBI in its bi-monthly review meeting kept interest rates unchanged on expected lines. They expect GDP to grow at 7.2% in the year 2025. 

The Indian Rupee gained 9 paisa or 0.11% to close at Rs 83.37 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on three of the five sessions and lost on two. At the end of the week, Dow gained 112.67 points or 0.29% to close at 37,798.99 points. 

In primary market news, Le Travenues Technology Limited, the owners of the online travel company ‘IXIGO’ tap the capital markets. The issue consists of a fresh issue of Rupees 120 crores and an offer for sale of 6,66,77,674 shares in a price band of Rs 88-93. The issue would open on Monday the 10th of June and close on Wednesday the 12th of June. The company is present in all the three verticals such as airline tickets, rail tickets and bus tickets. The company reported an EPS of Rs 0.57 for the year ended March 23. The same has improved significantly to Rs 1.75 for the nine months ended December 23. Revenues for the year ended March 23 were at Rs 517.5 crores which are now in the nine month period at Rs 378.7 crores. Based on the EPS for the full year the PE multiple comes at an exorbitant 154.39-163.16 times. Considering the nine months earnings this is more comparable with its peer set. Looking at the current market mood, investors may apply for the above share. 

Coming to the markets in the week ahead, expect them to remain volatile and witness two-sided moves. While FPIs have not turned bullish on India as yet, they seem to be confused more than bearish as they were till the end of the last month. They, bought on Monday and Friday and sold on the remaining three days. With a new high on intraday basis made on BSESENSEX on Friday and closing basis on both BSESENSEX and NIFTY on Friday, expect markets to rally further in the early part of the week. As government formation and the ensuing budget is likely to be presented in the first fortnight of July, composition of the cabinet and how the government settles down will be the focus of attention. Post new highs in the earlier part of the week, expect markets to witness profit taking and settling down from the new levels it has attained. In terms of support, the levels witnessed on Tuesday at the lower levels of 70,234 and 21,281 points will act as strong supports while we could see levels of 24,000-24,200 on NIFTY and 78,800-79,400 on BSESENSEX as ultimate targets in the near term. 

The strategy for the week would be to allow markets to run their course and resort to profit taking only when the fall starts. It’s not necessary that the upside targets have to be made in this week itself. They could happen when the budget is announced as their would-be various expectations from them this time around. The key mantra to making money would be to trade as volatility and trading opportunities galore would exist. 

Trade cautiously.

It was a volatile week and a complete reversal of the previous week. Markets lost on four of the five trading sessions and kept its prestige by gaining on the fifth day, Friday, which happened to be the first day of a new June series. Was the shining star during the week. BSESENSEX lost 1,449.08 points or 1.92% to close at 73,961.31 points while NIFTY lost 426.40 points or 1.86% to close at 22,530.70 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 1.09%, 1.83% and 1.73% respectively. BSEMIDCAP was down 1.53% and so was BSESMALLCAP a similar 1.53%. It may be mentioned here that in the previous week from 20th May to 24th May, BSESENSEX had gained 1,404.45 points or 1.90% while NIFTY gained 455.10 points or 2.02%. Effectively the two weeks scored out.  

The Indian Rupee was under pressure and lost 36 paisa or 0.43% to close at Rs 83.46 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on Friday after a continuous losing streak. For the week it lost 383.27 points or 0.98% to close at 38,686.32 points. Dow lost on three of the four trading sessions and gained on one. 

The week saw May futures expire on Thursday. At the end of the previous week the series was up 386.75 points or 1.71%. NIFTY surrendered all of this and closed with losses of 81.70 points or 0.36% to close at 22,488.65 points. 

In economic data released over the weekend, there was great news from the GDP front, economic front and GST tax collection front. GDP for the 4th quarter was at 7.8% which brings FY24 GDP at 8.2%. The fiscal deficit at 5.6% of GDP has bettered the government’s estimate. GST collection for May 24 is at 1.71 lac crores and continues the strong showing. 

The week ahead has RBI meet for its first policy meeting of FY24-25. It is widely expected that there would be no change in stance or interest rates as inflation is easing off. 

Shares of Awfis Space Solutions which had issued shares at Rs 383 listed on the bourses on Thursday the 30th of May. Shares closed day one at Rs 419.10, a gain of Rs 36.10 or 9.42%. On Friday, the share corrected sharply and closed at Rs 402.50, a reduced gain of Rs 19.50 or 5.09%. 

The seventh and final phase of voting concluded on Saturday the 1st of June. The exit polls at the end of the same indicate a strong performance of the ruling BJP and NDA led alliance across the country. While numbers suggest that they would have a more than comfortable majority on their own and may touch the magical number of 400 if the exit polls are to be believed. Well Tuesday would be another day and things would become clear. As of now it appears that things favor the incumbent and they should get through comfortably. 

Coming to the markets in the week ahead, while exit polls are in favor of NDA, one would like to be cautious for that one more day before celebrating wholeheartedly. By Tuesday midday, results would be clear which way the wind is blowing. What should be the strategy for the week ahead?

Looking at exit polls, a rally on Monday is almost certain. What may also happen is that post this rally there could be some profit taking and volatility. Tuesday would see volatility as the election trend in the morning is sketchy and skewed. Post this initial hiccup if exit polls hold good, markets should see a blast. FPIs have been aggressive sellers and a bout of short covering could give the needed ammunition to bulls to charge the market. It makes sense therefore to hold out your bets till markets stabilize post Tuesday results and allow the euphoria as exit polls indicate to kick in. New highs on NIFTY and BSESENSEX are on the cards and one should not be surprised if we see levels of about 79,000 on BSESENSEX and 23,800 on NIFTY in the coming week. All of this is subject to the fact that exit polls or even better the poll of polls is taken as a benchmark. 

The strategy would be to ride the rally and allow markets to savor the victory. Allow the euphoria to kick in and do not be in a hurry to book profits. Exercise caution in buying stocks where one is not comfortable on fundamentals. In conclusion, be cautious and allow exit polls to convert to results. 

Trade cautiously.