The last week saw markets gaining on all five trading sessions after a very long time. The last time it happened was almost six months ago in the week of 16th March 20 21st March when the indices gained a massive 3,076 points or 4.17% on BSESENSEX and an impressive 953.20 points or 4.26% on NIFTY. This week the gains were not so impressive but nonetheless it was a clean sweep. BSESENSEX gained 1,193.94 points or 1.48% to close at 81,904.70 points while NIFTY gained 373 points or 1.51% BANK NIFTY was up 694.74 points or 1.28% to close at 54,809.50 points. The broader indices like BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 saw them gain 1.59%, 1.62% and 1.61% respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 1.59% while BSESMALLCAP gained 1.51%. The top sectorial gainer was BSECAPITAL GOODS, up 4.25% while the only loser was BSECONSUMER GOODS, down 1.19%. 

The Indian rupee was unchanged at Rs 88.27 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on three of the five trading sessions and lost on two. It was up 433.36 points or 0.95% to close at 45,834.22 points. 

Infosys announced its largest ever buyback of shares. The price would be at Rs 1,800 per share and the amount kept aside is a staggering Rs 18,000 crores. This effectively means that 10 crore shares would be accepted in the buyback. Shares of the company rose from Rs 1,444 to Rs 1,526 on this count last week. They were up Rs 82 or 5.67% and were a decent contributor to the rally last week. The premium compared to Friday’s close is Rs 274 or 17.95%. 

Gold prices are boiling. They are at new all-time highs and closed the week at $ 3,643 per ounce and Rs 1.08,980 for 10 grams of 24K. On a year to date basis gold is up 27% and it appears the present rally has legs. Global turmoil and the way Central Banks the world over are buying gold, is fuelling the rally. 

The key factor supporting markets is hope and expectation that the Trump retaliatory tariffs issue would be amicably resolved. While there is hope there is a possibility. The fact also remains that all his claims of resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict have fallen flat. So much so that its eight months since he became the President of the United States of America and we haven’t moved any closer. Further, the de-dollarization is making things worse for the American economy. Diverse nations seem to be teaming up and making new pacts to remove the dependency on the mighty dollar for their business and economic deals. In such a situation it would be time for the US to think about its ever mounting debt and the fact that it is a currency which is not backed by gold reserves, to the extent of currency in circulation. 

The US Fed would be considering an interest rate cut in its upcoming meeting. There is another meeting happening on Tuesday and Wednesday in the coming week of the FED where there would be lot of data coming out. Depending on what the US does, there would be expectation that interest rates in India could see yet another cut post the GST rejig and benign inflation rates. The monsoon has also been good and at many places excess as well. 

Coming to the week ahead, support would exist at levels of 24,800 points and lower down at 24,300 points. On resistance front, the immediate target is 25,300 points. If this is taken out and sustained, next level would be at 25,550 points. Is the same doable or not depends on news flow. 

The strategy would be to keep positions light on an intraday basis and await clarity before jumping in. Remember that FPIs have been sellers and till date have sold Rs 1.43 lakh crores approximately in eight and a half months. Add to this the spate of public issues, OFS and PE selling that markets is witnessing. There is enough paper available for everyone. With Indian trade delegation visiting the US for trade talks, hopefully by the time Navratri is done and dusted, we should have clarity.

Trade cautiously. 

The week gone by had plenty of action and drama not only in the markets but also on the geo-political front. For the first time since India was singled out for buying Russian crude oil, USA now seems to be wanting to tread a middle path and come to level playing field. Trump who uses social media to say things, said that Modi is a friend to which the Prime Minister for the first time in six weeks responded by saying that India and the US share a “very positive and forward-looking” global strategic partnership. Does this mean things will be normalised? Not sure, but it’s better than what it was. There is hope. 

Getting back to the markets we saw them gain on three of the five trading sessions and lost on two. BSESENSEX gained 901.11 points or 1.13% to close at 80,710.76 points while NIFTY gained 314.15 points or 1.29% to close at 24,741 points. NIFTY gained on four of the five sessions and lost on one as it managed to close in the black on Friday, gaining seven points while BSESENSEX lost 8 points. Suffice to say that Friday was a flat day. BANK NIFTY gained 448.90 points or 0.84% to close at 54,114.55 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.36%, 1.44% and 1.57% respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 1.83% while BSESMALLCAP was up 2.53%. 

The GST council announced the new rates of GST on Wednesday evening and markets reacted to them on Thursday. They opened gap-up but left a lot to be desired thereafter. The open was the high on both exchanges and they closed substantially lower. The open on BSESENSEX was at 81,456.67 points against the previous day’s close of 80,567.71 points. The close was at 80,716.01 points. A gap up open of 888.96 points ended at a net gain of 150.3 points. Similarly the open on NIFTY was at 24,980.75 points against the previous day’s close of 24,715.05 points. The close was at 24,734.30 points. A gap up open of 265.70 points ended at a net gain of a mere 19.25 points. Such a big news was digested instantly. The top sectorial gainers were BSEMETAL and BSEAUTO which gained 5.84% and 5.22%. One can expect the auto sales to improve in the upcoming festive season post the new price announcements by the OEM’s. 

The Indian Rupee lost 8 paisa or 0.09% to close at Rs 88.27 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones was in range bound territory and lost on three of the four trading sessions, gaining on just one. It lost 143.62 points or 0.32% to close at 45,400.86 points.

India Inc. results for Q1 as a whole were disappointing as per various reports. Revenues grew by 3.4% on a year on year basis which is the lowest over the previous seven quarters. IT sector grew the lowest in five quarters. On the positive side, companies like Reliance and Indian Oil outperformed with higher refining margins. 

The overall performance does put pressure on markets going forward. 

Coming to the primary markets, we had one listing in the previous week. Shares of Vikran Engineering saw a muted listing with its shares closing day one at Rs 95.64, against an issue price of Rs 97. It clearly was a muted start. Over the remaining part of the week, the share did not do much and closed at Rs 95.02, a loss of Rs 1.98 or 2.04%. 

There are three mainboard IPO’s happening in the week ahead. The first of them is Urban Company Limited which is tapping the markets with its issue size totalling Rs 1,900 crores in a price band of Rs 98-103. The issue comprises of a fresh issue of Rs 472 crores and an offer for sale of Rs 1,428 crores. The company is a technology driven, full stack online service market place providing services and solutions across home and beauty categories. The company has turned profitable in FY25. It seems an interesting option and has seen good growth in services offered and executed. Importantly it appears that there is no competitor currently. 

The second issue is from Shringar House of Mangalsutra Limited which is tapping the markets with its fresh issue of 2.43 crore shares in a price band of Rs 155-165. The company is a manufacturer of Mangalsutra and it is the only item of jewellery that it manufactures. Its revenues for FY25 were at Rs 1,429 crores. The company has a 6% market share in the organised Mangalsutra market. The company reported an EPS of Rs 8.57 for the year ended March 25. 

The third company is Dev Accelerator Limited which is tapping the markets with its fresh issue of 2.35 crore shares in a price band of Rs 56-61. The company is a managed space operator in Tier 2 markets and has a substantial space in them. The object of the issue is for growth and the company would be doubling its present space with handover to begin in the next four to six months for half of the new space and the balance to begin in 12-16 months. The addition of these two spaces would make the company have a total space of approximately 1.6 million square feet with more in the pipeline. 

The above three IPO’s would all open on Wednesday the 10th of September and close on Friday the 12th of September. 

The markets in the week ahead would continue to be choppy and volatile. Geo-political developments would be closely watched after the successful SCO meeting held in China where China, Russia and India presented a good photo-op, close cooperation and enough signs to shake the West about new developments happening. The fact that Donald Trump is now trying to salvage relations is an indication that bullying is now a thing of the past. Trump and his tariff tantrums continue with little or no clarity available. The worst for India as of now is more or less decided, unless he now turns vindictive and decides to come after software and IT.  

Expect markets to find strong support at levels of 24,300 around on NIFTY and resistance at levels of 25,150-25,200 points. There are no immediate news flow expected other than trade agreements which will keep on happening over the next few months. USA and their tariffs will take a backseat as people are quite fed up with bickering and wavering of what Trump does. The strategy would be to refrain from taking large overnight positions for the time being and restrict to intra-day positions only. Portfolio building should be kept aside for the time being till geo-political clarity emerges. 

Trade cautiously.