D Day – Brace for Volatility

D Day is finally here when votes for Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh state assemblies will be counted. It would be all over in a few hours after counting begins today morning. Half the suspense is over when exit polls predicted that the BJP will continue to hold Gujrat and will wrest Himachal Pradesh from Congress. The margin of victory in Gujarat is crucial and the exit polls suggest the number to be around 110 plus/minus 5 seats. The BJP had 115 out of 182 in the last assembly.

This time around the Congress has put all at stake in the state and have finally appointed Rahul Gandhi as the Congress President. The election has been fought on a no holds barred basis and the Congress is looking upon it as the resurrection of the party.

Looking at the election results from the market perspective one sees that the same has become an event and could cause markets to make intermediate top or be the cause of the last leg of the euphoric rally. As mentioned two weeks ago, a result better than expected could cause a sharp rally and a new top surpassing the 7th November high is likely. Euphoria or panic typically last for three days. Therefore, a better result would lead to a new high, euphoria and then profit taking. A worse off result would lead to a sell off and then consolidation. In either case correction or profit taking are a maximum of three or four days away. One must use this opportunity wisely.

Coming to the markets last week, they were under pressure and only the exit poll rally helped markets which were in negative territory till then to become positive and close with weekly gains. BSESENSEX gained 212.67 points or 0.64% to close at 33,462.97 points. NIFTY gained 67.60 points or 0.65% to close at 10,333.25 points.

Shares of Shalby Limited, the hospital chain and were a disappointment. The effect of the exit poll just did not matter and shares closed with losses of about 3.53% at Rs 239.25. Shares were issued at Rs 248 and the company had raised Rs 480 crs by way of a fresh issue and an offer for sale of 10 lakh shares.

Today would be a high volume and volatile day. Make the best use of the same.

Shalby Limited – Listing Day Subdued, Closes 3.5% down On Debut Day

Shalby Limited which had tapped the capital markets with its simultaneous offer listed on the bourses and had a tepid listing. The issue comprised of a fresh issue to raise Rs 480 crs and an offer for sale of 10 lakh shares. The price band was Rs 245-248. The company had allotted 60,70,150 equity shares to 11 anchor investors comprising of 13 entities. The highest allocation was done to Goldman Sachs who was allotted 9,67,740 shares which was 15.94% of the equity issue.

The issue was subscribed 2.82 times overall with QIB portion subscribed 4.34 times. HNI portion remained undersubscribed at 0.42 times while retail was subscribed 2.98 times. Employee quota was subscribed 1.44 times. There were 3.19 lakh applications which meant the retail portion on basis of number of lots was subscribed 2.71 times.

The discovered price on the BSE was Rs 237 while on the NSE it was Rs 237.90. From there the share rose to touch a high of Rs 254.65 on the BSE and Rs 254.80 on the NSE. The share traded lower from the highs and was fairly range bound between Rs 244-248. In the last hour or so some sort of selling pressure emerged and the share made its low of Rs 236.15 on the BSE and Rs 236.45 on the NSE.

Exchange Open High Low Close Net Change % Gain/ Loss Wt.Avg Volume Delivery Del %age
BSE 237.00 254.65 236.15 239.25 -8.75 -3.53 245.88 1805266 324874 18.00
NSE 239.70 254.80 236.45 239.60 -8.40 -3.39 246.13 10353180 2107094 20.35
Total 12158446 2431968 20.00

The closing price for the day was Rs 239.25 a loss of Rs 8.75 or 3.53% on the BSE. The closing price on NSE was Rs 239.60, a loss of Rs 8.40 or 3.39%. The traded volume was 121.58 lakh shares which was 59.73% of the IPO size of 203.54 lakh shares. Delivery volume was 24.31 lakh shares which was 20% of the traded volume and 11.95% of the IPO size. The weighted average of the day’s trade was Rs 245.88 on the BSE and Rs 246.13 on the NSE. This clearly shows that those investors who wanted to do so on day one got a chance to exit with minor losses of under one percent. There were no institutional trades reported.

Decent company but because HNI’s were confident that this issue could not get oversubscribed 100 times chose to ignore the issue as the margin for funding would be high. Its high time the regulator looked into the issue and banned HNI’s for applying for the QIB portion which in any case is not fungible for them. This itself will make the magical 100 figure oversubscribed that much difficult as they would need 30 people to subscribe to half the issue size to get that number.

One hopes the regulator looks into the issue and realises that there is hardly a case where retail has undersubscribed their portion and the shortage has been met by HNI’s. The reverse has happened in quite many issues. One more issue which would go down as listed below issue price on day one.

Performance of Newly Listed Shares as on 15th December 2017

Name Date of Listing Issue Price Closing Price Closing Price % Gain Loss % Change Over
8th December 8st December Over Week lssue Price
SBI Life Insurance Company Limited 3rd October 700.00 688.65 684.25 0.63 -1.62
Prataap Snacks Limited 5th October 938.00 1331.95 1228.25 11.06 42.00
Godrej Agrovet Limited 16th October 460.00 550.40 546.70 0.80 19.65
MAS Financial Services Limited 18th October 459.00 638.60 638.50 0.02 39.13
IEX Limited 23rd October 1650.00 1573.70 1533.55 2.43 -4.62
General Insurance Company Limited 25th October 912.00 779.90 801.60 -2.38 -14.48
Reliance Nippon Life Asset Mng Limited 7th November 252.00 253.05 252.50 0.22 0.42
Mahindra Logistics Limited 10th Novemeber 429.00 437.00 442.90 -1.38 1.86
Khadim India Limited 14th November 750.00 675.50 686.20 -1.43 -9.93
HDFC Standard Life 17th Novmber 290.00 381.10 388.05 -2.40 31.41
Shalby Limited 15th December 248.00 239.25 NA -3.53 -3.53
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