Monday Factor in July 2017 gains

There were five Mondays in the month of July and call it coincidence or purely incidental markets gained on each of the five Mondays. That by itself was not a big achievement but the fact that 85% of the monthly gains on the SENSEX and 65% on the NIFTY came on these five Mondays cumulatively. Looking at it another way on 16 days cumulatively SENSEX gained a mere 15% while on five days it gained 85%. In the case of NIFTY it was 35% on 16 days and 65% on five days.

Not too sure what it is but in any month where there are five days of a particular day of the week and on which the market trades on all five they tend to become crucial and invariably they account for the bulk of the movement irrespective of whether it is a gain or a loss. Couple of year’s back it happened with Tuesdays.

The full table for the SENSEX and NIFTY is given below.

Monday Value Value Prev Friday Change % change
03rd July 31221.62 30921.61 30th June 300.01 0.96
10th July 31715.64 31360.63 07th July 355.01 1.12
17th July 32074.78 32020.75 14th July 54.03 0.17
24th July 32245.87 32028.89 21st July 216.98 0.67
31st July 32514.94 32309.88 28th July 205.06 0.63
1131.09 3.66
Gains in July
31st July 32309.88 30921.61 30th June 1388.27 4.30
Percentage gains on Monday cumulatively 0.85
Monday Value Value Prev Friday Change % change
03rd July 9615 9520.9 30th June 94.10 0.98
10th July 9771.05 9665.8 07th July 105.25 1.08
17th July 9915.95 9886.35 14th July 29.60 0.30
24th July 9966.40 9915.25 21st July 51.15 0.51
31st July 10077.10 10014.5 28th July 62.60 0.62
342.70 3.60
Gains in July
31st July 1077.1 9520.9 30th June 556.2 5.52
Percentage gains on Monday cumulatively 0.65

Performance of Newly Listed Shares as on 4th August 2017

Name Date of listing Issue Price closing price closing price % gain loss change over
04th August 28th July over week lssue price
IRB INVIT 18th May 102.00 97.89 98.04 -0.15 -4.03
HUDCO Limited 19th May 60.00 80.05 83.40 -5.58 33.42
PSP Projects Limited 29th May 210.00 329.60 302.55 12.88 56.95
India Grid 6th June 100.00 97.50 97.03 0.47 -2.50
Tejas Networks Limited 27th June 257.00 349.55 333.35 6.30 36.01
Eris Lifesciences Limted 29th June 603.00 568.40 609.45 -6.81 -5.74
CDSL 30th June 149.00 311.70 373.55 -41.51 109.19
GTPL Hathway Limited 4th July 170.00 142.30 156.35 -8.26 -16.29
AU Small Fianance Bank Limited 10th July 358.00 553.60 587.85 -9.57 54.64

Cochin Shipyard records subscription while markets survive rate cut

Markets have a mind of their own there is no doubt. After RBI announced a rate cut of 25 basis points on expected lines and with a 5-1 verdict, markets began to correct. The correction lasted a mere couple of days and by weekend on Friday they were back to their winning ways scoring gains all over again. The markets are richly valued no doubt but the excess liquidity ensures that at every correction there are enough buyers.

The IPO from Cochin Shipyard had huge success and received subscription which is very noteworthy. This time of fund mobilisation has happened only after Coal India which was an issue over ten times in size of Cochin Shipyard. While Coal India was to raise Rs 15,500 crs, Cochin Shipyard was for a mere Rs 1,468 crs. The total amount raised was a staggering Rs 1.11 lac crs. The issue saw the QIB portion subscribed 63.52 times, HNI portion subscribed 288.87 times and Retail portion subscribed 8.51 times. The company received a total of 20.75 lac applications which is a new record bettering the previous one also from a PSU company, HUDCO which received 20.13 lakh applications.

Seeing the kind of subscriptions from the retail which is really taking to the markets through primary issues and also mutual funds, it’s time to revisit the various buckets that the IPO has been divided into.

It is now an open secret which even the chaiwala on Dalal Street knows that the HNI applies only through borrowed money. Why should he be allowed to bid for one time the whole issue when oversubscription in his category is not allowed to be shifted to the QIB category? He is only interested in doing this large an application so that unless the issue is subscribed in the HNI category by over 100 times the margin at which money is lent does not reduce. Without that comfort he is not interested in the issue. When one sees the total subscription by HNI’s and the number of people who have applied it invariably is less than the number of times that the issue is subscribed.

Further it is this category of people who play the grey or premium market and are not conducive for a healthy state in the primary market. With the regulator cracking down on the contentious P-Note market, why action is not taken here beats me. By not allowing the HNI to bid for more than the bucket size almost all problems would be solved. The regulator must attempt giving this a try and solve the problems of this hyped demand and rampant price rigging in the primary market which is not justifiable and sustainable.

Markets are looking tired but refuse to correct or consolidate. Who blinks first the markets or the investor only time will tell.

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