Blood on Dalal Street – Bulls badly mauled

The bulls of Dalal Street were badly mauled last week. The BSESENSEX lost 800 points on Thursday and ended the week with losses of 1,630 points or 6.62% on the BSESENSEX. NIFTY too lost 508 points or 6.79% for the week. The market lost across the board and it was difficult to find exceptions. All the sectors were losers with BSEREALTY down 11.35% and BSECONDURABLE the least at 4%.

Since the beginning of the calendar year it’s been six weeks now and the BSESENSEX is down 3,174 points or 12.13%. Interestingly the markets lost in one week what it lost in five earlier weeks combined. On the NIFTY the year to date loss is 983 points or 12.34% and the story hereto is almost similar. Such was the magnitude of the fall that it spared no one. Even IT stocks which are normally solid when the rupee is weak were falling as well.

All this happened when China was celebrating their new year- The year of the monkey. What the new Chinese New Year has in store only the monkey knows and he sure knows how to somersault. Results season for the quarter October-December 2015 has come to an end and left a lot to be desired. There were hardly any turnaround signs that one could have spotted and the PSU banks NPA’s have hit the ceiling. Results because of NPA’s have been terrible and if this is leading to a complete cleansing of the system it would be more than welcome. With some of the private banks cleaning up as well it should be time for the remaining to follow suit in the last quarter of FY2016.

The week ahead would be dominated by extreme volatility and there could be some initial gains after the sharp fall last week. I however expect these gains to be short lived as any sustainable gains can only emerge after some real money comes into the markets. In the short run a rally would be on account of short covering more than anything else.

In such a fluid and volatile situation it’s a place for just the nimble footed and not the faint at heart.

Performance of Newly Listed Shares as on 12th February 2016

Name Date of listing Issue Price closing price closing price % gain loss change over
12th February 5th February Over week lssue price
Coffee Day Enterprises Limited 2nd November 328.00 222.00 246.10 -7.35 -32.32
Interglobe Aviation Limited 10th November 765.00 777.5 837.25 -7.81 1.63
S H Kelkar & Company Limited 16th November 180.00 216.30 254.80 -21.39 20.17
Alkem Laboratories Limited 23rd December 1050.00 1319.00 1336.50 -1.67 25.62
Dr Lal Pathlabs Limited 23rd December 550.00 797.50 799.00 -0.27 45.00
Narayana Hrudayalaya 6th January 250.00 286.10 318.60 -13.00 14.44
Precision Camshaft Limited 8th February 186.00 158.05 N A -15.03 -15.03
Teamlease Services Limited 12th February 850.00 1021.95 N A 20.23 20.23

Teamlease Services Limited – Gains 20% on debut- Discovered price is manipulated

Teamlease Services Limited which had tapped the capital markets with its primary issue for Rs 150 crs and an offer for sale of 32,19,733 shares in a price band of Rs 785-850 made a decent debut gaining 20%. These gains were not without hiccups as the discovered price at Rs 860 against the issue price of Rs 850 was manipulated. The traded volume at the discovered price was ridiculously low with a mere 13,044 shares traded on the BSE and 69,678 shares on the NSE. Who manipulated and what was the purpose will remain unclear until the exchanges and SEBI investigate who sold shares at a price of Rs 860 when the grey market was trading at a comfortable Rs 200 plus even a couple of days before the issue listed.

The only logical explanation was that a group of persons was interested in cornering shares and therefore with the discovered price of Rs 860 ensured two things. Firstly there would be willing sellers from the HNI category as the issue which was subscribed 185 times in the HNI category cost Rs 211-215 per share for the leveraged investor. Here the upper circuit at Rs 860 plus 20% would mean Rs 1032, a discount to the leveraged investor’s cost price. Secondly with mayhem one day before listing on the bourses where the SENSEX lost 800 points, investors would be more than willing to sell.

The first half hour of trade after price discovery resulted in an average traded price of Rs906.40 on the BSE with 8.53 lac shares being traded while on NSE it was Rs 906.40 with 32 lac shares traded. Clearly the discovered price was manipulated and the regulators need to see how and why the same happened.

Exchange Open High Low Close Net Change % Gain/loss Wt. Avg Volume Delivery Del %age
BSE 860.00 1032.00 805.90 1021.90 171.90 20.22 942.94 1315394 281220 21.38
NSE 860.00 1032.00 806.65 1022.85 172.85 20.34 948.98 5498099 1643152 29.89
Total               6813493 1924372 28.24

Traded volume on the BSE was 13.15 lacs while it was 54.98 lac shares on the NSE. When looked at the discovered price volume it indeed confirms the doubt of manipulation. One needs to see the volume in other issues to get a sense. The delivery percentage was 21.38% on the BSE and a significantly higher 29.89% on the NSE. A combined total of 19.24 lac shares were delivered which is 28.24% of the traded volume. Significantly this is 38.61% of the issue size and 705 of the non-anchor issue size. Anchors allotment is locked in for 30 days. The weighted average for the day’s trade was Rs 942.94 on the BSE and Rs 948.98 on the NSE. Even at the average price there was a gain of between Rs 90-100 on the issue price of Rs 850.

The closing price was almost at the day’s high at Rs 1021.90 on the BSE and Rs 1022.85 on the NSE. There was delivery based buying on both exchanges with Nomura buying 1,16,397 shares at Rs 932.22 on the BSE and 3,96,220 shares at Rs 936.11 on the NSE. Further Goldman Sachs bought 2,37,182 shares at Rs 1004.85 on the NSE. This effectively means that a total of 7,49,799 shares were bought by institutions on day one. Their buying quantity was 39% of the delivery on day one. This purchase definitely helped the share and part of the strength could be attributed to buying interest.

End of the day good ending to a poor story on account of a high degree of manipulation. Fit case for investigation and findings if unhealthy must be made public with the guilty being punished for the future good of the capital markets.

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