Stray thoughts this Monday morning

A lot is happening all around us including the markets, unfortunately the markets are negative and are losing ground. The climate deal has been signed in Paris, India and Japan have signed many deals including the civil nuclear agreement and of course the bullet train will ply between Mumbai and Ahmedabad. While parliament not functioning has become a norm, the only variant is the reason for stalling of the same by the leading opposition party. While about ten days ago we were all told that the stalling was on account of vendetta on the herald case, we are now told that it is not so and it is back to the two CM’s of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. How long is the nation to suffer on account of these politicians?

The markets fell on four of the five trading sessions during the week and in the course of the fall briefly on Friday fell below the psychological levels of 25,000 on the SENSEX and 7,600 on the NIFTY. The BSESENSEX lost 593 points or 2.32% while NIFTY lost 171 points or 2.20%. The broader market lost more and BSEMIDCAP was down 3.28% and BSESMALLCAP 2.98%.

The Dow Jones reversed gains of last week and lost 582 points or 3.26%. The Fed meets this Tuesday and Wednesday and it is widely believed that a 25 basis rate increase would happen. This would be an event after about 9 years. The event is discounted and in all probability markets should make a bottom in the immediate short term post the event.

In primary markets, both the issues which opened and closed last week did well and were well received. Dr Lal PathLabs was subscribed 33.41 times with HNI portion subscribed 61.28 times. In the case of Alkem Laboratories the issue was subscribed 44.29 times with HNI portion a staggering 129.96 times. The cost of funding was higher than normal at 8% for 8 days and coupled with the fact that the tax free bond issue from IRFC had opened at the same time made finance that much costlier. The third instalment of advance tax is also due by the 15th of December making money markets tighter. The last of the tax free bonds issue and the largest from NHAI opens this week. The issue from Narayana Hrudayalaya also opens this Thursday. The company runs hospitals and is headed by the well-known heart surgeon Dr Devi Shetty. The company plans to raise in an all secondary offering between Rs 600 crs and 613 crs. The price band is Rs 245-250.

FII’s in about eleven and a half months of the current calendar year have bought equity worth under Rs 10,000 crs while domestic institutions have been buyers of close to Rs 68,000 crs in the same period.

Tough times ahead for the markets and one needs to use dips to accumulate stock. Parliament would function one fine day and important bills like GST see the light of day.

Performance of Newly Listed Shares as on 11th December 2015

Name Date of listing Issue Price closing price closing price % gain loss change over
11th December 4th December Over week lssue price
Navkar Corporation Limited 9th September 155.00 209.60 195.60 9.03 35.23
Pennar Engineered Building Systems Ltd 10th September 178.00 159.00 161.10 -1.18 -10.67
Shree Pushkar Chem & Fert Ltd 10th September 65.00 91.60 100.00 -12.92 40.92
Sadbhav Infrastructure Project Limited 16th September 103.00 97.50 101.80 -4.17 -5.34
Prabhat Dairy Limited 21st September 115.00 138.00 153.80 -13.74 20.00
Coffee Day Enterprises Limited 2nd November 328.00 256.40 255.00 0.43 -21.83
Interglobe Aviation Limited 10th November 765.00 1035.75 1077.35 -5.44 35.39
S H Kelkar & Company Limited 16th November 180.00 216.00 211.70 2.39 20.00

Alkem Laboratories Limited – Issue subscribed 44 times overall

The offer for sale from the promoter and promoter group of Alkem Laboratories limited received excellent response from the investing public. The issue which comprised of 128.53 lac shares in a price band of Rs 1020-1050 by way of offer for sale was subscribed 44.29 times overall. The anchor book had received excellent response and there were 25 anchor investors comprising of 47 entitites which were allotted 37,66,358 shares at the top end of the band of Rs 1,050.
The retail portion was subscribed 3.17 times and there were in all 6.26 lac applications received. This in fact means that the retail portion on the basis of lot size was subscribed about two times and every alternate investor would be allotted shares. The HNI portion was subscribed 129.96 times and the cost of funding at an average of 8% for 8 days would mean a cost of RsRs 239 per share. This becomes the safety net for retail investors and if the price of Alkem Laboratories falls below Rs 1,290 on listing day which is the issue price and cost of leverage, there could be pressure in the share.
Full details of the subscription are given below: –

Bucket Size Shares Applied for Times oversubscribed
QIB 2510906 143606680 57.19
HNI 1883179 244745480 129.96
Retail 4394086 13910148 3.17
Employees 298913 199290 0.67
Total 9087084 402461598 44.29

From the above table one can see the levels of subscription in various categories. The only surprise was the employee quota which remained undersubscribed even though there was a substantial Rs 100 per share discount to the employees. In any case it was a well-received IPO.

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