Post listing performance key for primary market buoyancy

Primary market is buzzing with high profile issues but will that revive the primary market is the moot question. Coffee Day Enterprises Limited the holding company of Café Coffee Day or what is probably better known as CCD has just completed its IPO to raise Rs 1,150 crs. The company had appointed quite a few as merchant bankers and one can now see that the whole idea was to have the subscription tied up from overseas. The company and its merchant bankers have been able to do just that. The price band which was Rs 316-328 saw that the anchor investors were allotted shares at the midway price of Rs 322. The QIB portion thereafter was subscribed 4.39 times or effectively of the total book including anchor the QIB’s subscribed for 1.22 times the book at the top end of the price band. It appears imminent that the allotment price would be lower. The overall book was subscribed (including anchor) 1.64 times with HNI plus retail subscribing to 41.92% of the book. However both categories of HNI and retail remained undersubscribed which indicates that the issue did not go down well with these categories. Reasons are many with valuations being one of them and not too active a grey market being the primary reason for HNI’s. An Ahmedabad associate of a merchant banker was active in buying retail application forms and that was the reason why the average subscription per form was higher at 2.2 lots against the normal 1.2 lots.

Interglobe Aviation Limited the owner of popular low cost carrier Indigo would be tapping the capital markets next week. Earlier this week he would be having a road show and the company has set new standards in declaration of dividends. The company had given a dividend just short of Rs 1000 crs for the year ended March 2015 and then bettered it by a length by declaring an interim dividend for the current year ending on March 2016. Very clearly there must be a stated policy as regards dividends which the company has. Probably being in an industry where crude oil prices are a key to the success or failure of the industry, they could be in good years distributing a large portion of profits to shareholders and thereby creating goodwill amongst them. In bad years they would of course be skipping the same completely. It could also be yet another case that the dividend has been given before they go public as hereon the company would have public shareholding as well and the largesse of the first quarter and last year becomes a thing of the past. Hopefully clarity on this subject would be there at the roadshow of the company.

The third issue is from S.H.Kelkar and Company which is in the business of “F&F” or flavours and fragrances. This company supplies its products which are used by FMCG companies. Manufacturers of hair oil, agarbattis, soaps and detergents, personal care are amongst some of the end users of this company. On the other side dairy industry, cold drink manufacturers and so on are also users. The company looks interesting and is likely to be the dark horse in the trio as the products of this company are largely B TO B and not seen by a lay man other than its Cobra brand which is a retail product forming under 10% of its annual revenues.
The success of these three issues post listing will determine the fate of those issues planning to hit the market around Diwali time and mid-December. If these issues do well pricing of the latter issues will be aggressive and if they don’t there will be some money left on the table left by promoters. It is a tricky situation and we need to face it.

Markets have gained during the week on the reverse logic that the US Fed is unlikely to raise rates in the immediate future.

Coffee Day Enterprises Limited –Issue subscribed by QIB’s

Coffee Day Enterprises Limited the holding company of CCD or Café Coffee Day was subscribed but not without its share of hiccups. The company had launched its fresh issue to raise Rs 1,150 crs in a price band of Rs 316-328. Considering the fact that this is a holding company structure and the company has investments in a listed company which is valued at market rates of roughly Rs 2,500 crs, the issue was considered expensive. Readers would be aware that well known holding companies like Tata Investments and Pilani investments trade at a discount of 45-50%. Further this company on a consolidated basis is yet to make profits.

The company had allotted shares to anchor investors at a midway price of Rs 322. Considering this as a benchmark and the fact that two out of three categories remained under subscribed, or half the issue was under subscribed, the anchor investor’s allocation price becomes the ceiling price for the company. Shares would be allotted no higher than this price.

The retail portion was subscribed 90% and this has been achieved after active grey market where application forms were purchased. The local term for application forms is “Koshtak” and forms for one lot and for 2 lacs were purchased. The average application size moved up substantially because of this form purchase and the same was at 98.81 shares or 2.19 lots which is substantially higher than 1.2 average in recent issues. This means considering the buyback and therefore no price risk people have applied for the maximum in the retail category.

This means that all those who have applied in the retail category would be sellers on day one and the shares would get transferred to those whom the application forms were sold. This means there would be huge volume on day one when CCD is listed and there would be huge delivery based trades as well.

The other category which remained undersubscribed was HNI and here a mere 54% of the bucket size was subscribed. Besides the usual ‘being expensive’ issue the margin for loan against application was in double digits which made the funding cost higher and a not too active grey market ensured no easy exit for the HNI. This made the issue unattractive for the leveraged investor.

Details of the subscription are given below:-

Bucket Size Shares Applied for Times oversubscribed
QIB 7380654 32384880 4.39
HNI 5387658 2920050 0.54
Retail 12571203 11363220 0.90
Employees 474683 407655 0.86
Total 25814198 47075805 1.82

From the table above it is more than clear that QIB’s have saved the day and they would need to be more than willing to buy more on listing day as well.

The first of the mega issues in the festive season has come and gone and the issue had a torrid time. Let’s hope the two which open in about ten days’ time have a smoother passage.

Performance of Newly Listed Shares as on 16th October 2015

Name Date of listing Issue Price closing price closing price % gain loss change over
16th October 9th October Over week lssue price
Syngene International Limited 11th August 250.00 363.30 344.10 7.68 45.32
Power Mech Engineers Limited 26th August 640.00 614.50 587.50 4.22 -3.98
Navkar Corporation Limited 9th September 155.00 158.90 157.00 1.23 2.52
Pennar Engineered Building Systems Ltd 10th September 178.00 170.00 168.80 0.67 -4.49
Shree Pushkar Chem & Fert Ltd 10th September 65.00 80.40 73.50 10.62 23.69
Sadbhav Infrastructure Project Limited 16th September 103.00 100.35 101.25 -0.87 -2.57
Prabhat Dairy Limited 21st September 115.00 125.00 118.70 5.48 8.70
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