Performance of NIFTY on monthly basis

The March series futures expired on Thursday 26th March and it sure was not a good day. The NIFTY fell over 200 points and the series expired at 8,342.15 a monthly loss of 344.70 points or 3.97%. What this data does not capture is the fact that intra month the loss was much more as the lifetime high in the NIFTY of 9,119.20 points was made on the 4th of March or in this very expiry. The fall from there to expiry is 777 points more than double the actual fall.

The ride through the year 2014-15 which was riding the Modi wave has by and large been positive with eight of the 12 months registering gains and 4 months registering losses. What is significant is the fact that the first loss came only in September in the sixth month. The second loss was in December and then we have seen losses in February and March with the loss in March being the biggest. The year ended with gains of 25%, decent by all standards.

Month Current Value Previous Month Net Change % Change
of Expiry Value
Apr-14 6840.80 6641.75 199.05 3.00
May-14 7235.65 6840.80 394.85 5.77
Jun-14 7493.20 7235.65 257.55 3.56
Jul-14 7721.30 7493.20 228.10 3.04
Aug-14 7954.35 7721.30 233.05 3.02
Sep-14 7911.85 7954.35 -42.50 -0.53
Oct-14 8169.20 7911.85 257.35 3.25
Nov-14 8494.20 8169.20 325.00 3.98
Dec-14 8174.20 8494.20 -320.00 -3.77
Jan-15 8952.35 8174.20 778.15 9.52
Feb-15 8686.85 8952.35 -265.50 -2.97
Mar-15 8342.15 8686.85 -344.70 -3.97
2014-15 8342.15 6641.75 1700.40 25.60

The year ahead would be more difficult than the previous year and one would have to wait for corporate performance to catch up with market prices which have run up and also the reforms which are surely but steadily kicking in. The coal mines bill and the mining and minerals bill have been passed. The insurance bill was passed even earlier and the land acquisition bill would be promulgated after Rajya Sabha is prorogued. The bill is on course and would see the light of day sooner than later. The message to industry loud and clear is this government means business and will clear impediments preventing smooth functioning and growth.

Performance of Newly Listed Shares as on 27th March 2015

Name Date of listing Issue Price closing price closing price % gain loss change over
27th March 20th March over week lssue price
Sharda Cropchem Limited 23rd September 156.00 285.30 293.85 -5.48 82.88
Shemaroo Entertainment Limited 1st October 170.00 175.50 203.90 -16.71 3.24
Monte Carlo Fashion Limited 19th December 645.00 476.00 479.00 -0.47 -26.20
Otel Communications Limited 19th March 181.00 140.00 163.40 -12.93 -22.65

 

A tale of three IPO’s

During the month of March there were three IPO’s, where one has listed and the remaining two are still some time away from listing. The three IPO’s under discussion are Ortel Communications Limited, Adlabs Entertainment Limited and Inox Wind Limited.

Details of the issues are given below.

  Ortel Communications Adlabs Entertainment Inox Wind
       
Price Band 181-200 221-230 315-325
    Revised to 180-215  
Issue Size Fresh 60 lac shares 183.26227 lac shares Rs 700 crs
Issue size offer for sale 60 lac shares 20 lac shares 1 cr shares
QIB Portion 75% 75% 50%
Anchor investor bucket Upto 60% of QIB Upto 60% of QIB Upto 60% of QIB
Anchor investor allotment 28.40% of QIB 17.85% of QIB 60% of QIB
Anchor Price lower price band 181 lower price band 221 higher price band 325
Subscription      
QIB 1.01 1.17 35.68
HNI 0.09 0.49 35.38
Retail 0.39 1.37 2.15
Total 0.75 1.11 18.6
Listing 171.95 down 5% Yet To list yet to list

In the case of Ortel Communications the merchant banker has invested in the form of two entities namely Kotak Mahindra Bank 26.7375 lac shares and Kotak Mahindra Old Mutual 6.075 lac shares. The total from Kotak is therefore 32.8125 lac shares from a final allotment size of just about 96.80 lac shares including the anchor investor portion. Whether one would call this a bail out or by any other name is for you to choose.

The case of Adlabs Entertainment had a price band of Rs 221-230 and everybody felt that the pricing was very aggressive. As is the usual comment by esteemed and experienced merchant bankers they had done extensive marketing and the feedback received decided the price. We saw the response from anchor investors and the public whether they are institutional or non-institutional. The price band was reduced from Rs 221-230 to Rs 180-215. The issue would be priced at the lower band of Rs 180 at which price the discount is Rs 41 or 18.55% from the lower price band of Rs 221-230. Clearly it’s a tough bargaining game and one only hopes there is wisdom and learning from these experiences.

Looking at the varying levels or degree of success or failure of each of the issues is a learning curve for all concerned. Investors are wary of business model where existing players are not making money or the business seems faulty. Secondly pricing is the key and the days where anything new was more valuable than an existing old company does not hold well currently. Thirdly retail investors will take a risk and at best invest in one lot if there is a discount and the issue would trade in continuous trade mode and not trade to trade.

Its time our merchant bankers took heed of the ground realty and refrain from very aggressive pricing and make the same affordable so that there is a reasonable chance that investors may make some money taking a risk and investing in primary market.

The financial year 2014-15 is coming to an end and one hopes and prays that the primary markets remain buoyant in the coming year. The nation needs capital building and raising for its ambitious projects and if we all as intermediaries, associates and whatever name we choose to call ourselves provide the right inputs, things will not only happen but happen well.

The proof of the pudding is in the eating and the success or failure of the three issues is in front of you.

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