Performance of Newly Listed Shares as on 2nd March 2012

These IPO’s were listed during the October December 2011 Quarter

Name Date of Listing Issue Price Closing  Price Closing Price % Gain Loss  Change Over Lifetime   Fall from  Fall as % of
2nd Mar 24th Feb Over Week  lssue Price High High in Rs issue price
Prakash Constrowell 4th Oct 138.00 84.50 90.10 -6.22 -38.77 311.70 -227.20 -164.64
RDB Rasayans 7th Oct 79.00 8.30 8.69 -4.49 -89.49 93.15 -84.85 -107.41
Tijaria Polypipes 14th Oct 60.00 8.61 8.77 -1.82 -85.65 67.80 -59.19 -98.65
Onelife Capital Advisors 17th Oct 110.00 283.60 315.80 -10.20 157.82 309.35 -25.75 -23.41
Flexituff International 19th Oct 155.00 239.05 240.10 -0.44 54.23 301.95 -62.90 -40.58
Taksheel Solutions 19th Oct 150.00 14.10 14.47 -2.56 -90.60 185.00 -170.90 -113.93
M&B Switchgear 20th Oct 186.00 71.90 71.80 0.14 -61.34 390.00 -318.10 -171.02
Vaswani Industries 24th Oct 39.20 9.92 11.15 -11.03 -74.69 35.40 -25.48 -65.00
Indo – Thai Securities 2nd Nov 74.00 11.95 12.32 -3.00 -83.85 99.10 -87.15 *-117.77

* I have received lot of queries about the last column “fall as % from lifetime high” and the fact that it is more than 100%. The fact is that many of these poor fundamental shares have gone up sharply on the day of listing or for a brief period and then have fallen sharply. The base of all issues is the issue price and because a share cannot trade at negative value it can never fall more than 99%.

This column highlights the extent of fall from the lifetime high and depicts the same as a percentage of the issue price.

For example in the case of Birla Medspa the high is Rs 30.70 which is a gain of 307% on the issue price and the share has fallen below the issue price of Rs 10 to now trade at Rs 6.78. This translates into the loss of 239.20% from the lifetime high.

ONGC: Offer for Sale turns out to be a fiasco

Issue subscribed by friendly investors to the extent of 98.27% in last ten minutes

ONGC which was expected to be the big ticket divestment turned out to be a big dampener. The issue which was for 5% of the company’s equity was an offer for sale by the largest shareholder the Government of India. The issue was for 42,77,74,504 shares and was at a floor price of Rs 290. The floor price fixed was at a premium of Rs 6.45 or 2.27% to the closing price of Rs 283.55 on the 28th of February. It was quite strange for a premium to be fixed for a follow on offer of a listed security.

It appears from the kind of news flow that India’s largest insurance company LIC has bailed out the issue with support from SBI, India’s largest PSU bank and a host of other PSU banks. This puts the entire process of divestment under a cloud and one wonders that the feedback that the company had received from overseas investors is based on what premise. It appears that these investors have shied away from the auction looking at the floor price and also the fact that no one in the company or the government is clear on the subsidy sharing formula for oil pool deficit. These issues need to be addressed for the growth of this company and if meaningful divestment is to happen.

Coming to the auction itself which was during the course of the normal trading day saw bids for amere 1,43,85,097 shares at 3.20 pm with just about 10 minutes to go for the auction to conclude. Thereafter the systems refused to update and there was no communication or information available on the websites of BSE or NSE. News channels kept on giving all sorts of updates quoting sources from the Exchanges. One wonders when there is a public auction how selective information can be given.

The next one heard was that the two exchanges were updated to show that the issue was closed having received final bids for 42,04,16,170 shares which was 98.27% of the issue on offer. The two exchanges released a joint press release at the end of the day or almost midnight which is quite intriguing. The text of the press release is reproduced below.

Joint Media Release
BSE / NSE

“ONGC Offer for Sale (OFS) was completed today using the secondary market mechanism created by BSE and NSE.

The final demand was for 42.03 crore shares against an offer for 42.77 crore shares.

While the buy orders at both exchanges reflected a demand of 29.22 crore shares around the market close, there were certain buy orders which were not immediately confirmed or were erroneously rejected by custodians due to a mismatch at the custodian end, even though, the orders were funded.

These orders were not reflected in the demand of 29.22 crore shares as specified above. After rectification of these errors, the final demand was for 42.03 crore shares as stated above. Monies and orders received after normal market close have not been considered by the exchanges in the offer for sale.

Exchange systems operated normally and smoothly and there were no glitches.”

The questions that arise from this press release are as to why the figure of 29.22 cr shares was not available on any exchange publicly and only available to media channels? Are the exchanges supposed to disseminate information publicly or selectively? When there were no system glitches why an announcement to that effect could not be made? By not doing so it has created speculation as to the cause of delay and apprehension of manipulation being done to bail out the issue? Clearly things have been done in very poor taste and the Capital Market regulator SEBI must take to task the persons involved in this goof up. The merchant bankers and the stock exchanges are clearly at fault for all the mess that has been created and for keeping things under wrap without keeping people posted about the same.

One other feeling or theory being talked about after the conclusion of the ONGC issue is that there was a standby arrangement created for the issue with support from LIC and the PSU banks. This support was to be used after the investors whether retail, HNI, or Foreign have put in their bids. The response was so poor that it took some time for the standby arrangement to have the funds credited as this auction was a fully funded offer and had to be bid with supported funds. This is why the exchanges in their joint press release had to specifically mention that no bids after the normal market close were considered.

It is also pertinent to note that though the quantum of shares bid have been mentioned, till this morning details about the price and or break up of buyers in terms of institutional investors etc. is still not available. The equity price of ONGC closed at Rs 288.20 while the futures of ONGC were trading lower at Rs 287.45. There would be volatility in the stock price movement of ONGC today. and the way the issue has been handled is clearly a cause for concern.

One hopes that like the investigation ordered in the IPO scam where action was taken against 7 companies and their merchant bankers, this case is also similarly investigated.

MCX IPO Subscribed: Huge Response

Overall subscription 53.89 times

The first IPO of the calendar year 2011 has created a storm and was subscribed a staggering 54 times. The issue received great response from all categories of investors whether QIB, HNI or retail. The IPO which was priced in a band of Rs 860-1032 was an offer for sale and there was no fresh issue. The issue size was 64,27,378 shares and there was a reservation of 2.5 lac shares from employees reducing the issue size for the public to 61,77,378 shares. The company had also done an allocation to Anchor investors of 9,26,607 shares which was done at the top end of the price band of Rs 1032. The issue had opened on Wednesday the 22nd of February and closed on Friday the 24th of February.

The details of the subscription level in various categories are given below: –

Category Shares Offered Shares Subscribed Times
QIB 2162083 106192932 49.12
NII 926607 139313544 150.35
Retail 2162082 52190634 24.14
Employee 250000 44034 0.18
Overall 5500772  297741144 54.13

The cost of funding for the leveraged HNI varies from 9% to 11%. Depending on the rate of interest the per time funding cost varies from Rs 2.035 per time to Rs 2.488 per time. The issue is subscribed 150.35 times or 150 times which makes the cost of interest Rs 305.25 at 9% and Rs 373.20. The grey market premium currently at close of the bidding was Rs 375 and has to go up if the HNI investor has to make money in the issue.

MCX has proved a point once again that if issues are reasonably priced leaving something on the table for the investor, there is appetite for primary issues. One hopes promoters of companies and merchant bankers take this as a learning experience and implement the same when bringing issues to the market.The issue has created substantial interest in the primary market and it would be interesting to see whether the pipeline of IPO’s get activated with this issue or not?

Subscribe to RSS Feed Follow me on Twitter!