The first week of calendar year 2024 was a tough one for the markets with they undecided which way to go. Markets gained on three of the five sessions and lost on two. After an eventful week where bulls and bears both tried to take control of proceedings and failed, the week saw BSESENSEX lose 214.11 points or 0.30% to close at 72,026.15 points, while NIFTY lost 20.60 points or 0.09% to close at 21,710.80 points. The broader markets behaved differently and one saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 0.26%, 0.60% and 0.82% respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 2.35% while BSESMALLCAP was up 2.68%. 

The Indian Rupee gained 6 paisa or 0.07% to close at Rs 83.15 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on three of the four sessions and lost on just one. Yet Dow was at the receiving end and closed lower with losses of 223.43 points or 0.59% to close at 37,466.11 points. 

The big players traditionally used to be the FPIs and their course of action would determine the trend on Dalal Street. This seems to have changed over time. While what they do is significant, it no longer controls the market. Domestic retail investors through SIPs and mutual funds have given these mutual funds enough power to take on the might of FPIs. 

We saw through the earlier part of 2023, that even though FPIs were big sellers, our markets remained resilient and were at most of the time sideways or continued to trend upwards. This new found strength over the last year or so has held markets in good stead and is forcing FPIs to relook at India. The fact that the economy is resilient in the face of adversities is another big positive. This is adding strength to markets and changing the outlook that people have about our markets. 

The week ahead sees three major IT companies declare results on Thursday the 11th of January. The companies are TCS, Infosys and Wipro. The sector has been under pressure for some time and we saw a strong rearguard action in the sector during the last week of calendar year 2023. Whether the action was a mere rearguard action or based on fundamentals, would be known on Thursday evening. Suffice to say that IT pack has the potential to be a game changer next week. 

FPIs were net buyers of equity in the cash market to the extent of approximately Rs 32,000 crs in the month of December while Domestic institutions were buyers of roughly Rs 13,000 crs. In the first week of January, FPIs were buyers of Rs 3,300 crs while domestic institutions were sellers of Rs 7,300 crs. While its early days as yet, one needs to see what are the alternatives for investment that global funds have. Currently India is a hot destination and being one of the outperformers is becoming a must invest choice for all. 

Coming to the week ahead, we will see a volatile market which will continue to look for directions. There is no trend and markets are trying to find their base and rhythm. Results season for the October -December 23 quarter would start kicking in, and that would hold the key for the trend that markets move on. The strategy would be to play safe and sell on strong rallies and buy on sharp dips. Intra-day trading opportunities would be the order of the day across sectors.  A good strategy could be to play in stocks whose results are to be declared as they tend to become super volatile around that time. Based on any strong trends in the sector leaders, one could expect the peer group to take cues from the front runners. This should be a good trend setter for the coming weeks. 

In terms of levels of resistance and support, markets after their sharp spurt in December 23 are still trying to find a trading zone. I believe this could take a couple of weeks to be determined. Till such time that a new trading zone is established, markets will remain volatile, range bound and fairly unpredictable. Importantly, the low volumes currently being witnessed need to pick up before a trend can be found. 

Trade cautiously.

The week has come to end and this week becomes special because the calendar year 2023 ends at the stroke of midnight as well. The week was a four-day affair with it beginning with a trading holiday on account of Christmas. Markets contrary to expectation gained on three of the four sessions and had a small dip on the very last day of the year. Nothing to be read into but purely coincidental. The week saw BSESENSWEX gain 1,133.30 points or 1.59% to close at 72,240.26 points while NIFTY gained 382.00 points or 1.79% to close at 21,731.40 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.86%, 1.97% and 1.98% respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 2.67% while BSESMALLCAP was up 1.60%. 

Dow Jones gained on three of the four sessions. It has had a great year and for calendar year 2023 gained 4,484.59 points or 13.53% to close at 37,631.87 points. In contrast, the Indian benchmark indices have had a great performance and have outperformed Dow. On a yearly basis, BSESENSEX gained 11,399.52 points or 18.74% to close at 72,240.26 points. Similarly, NIFTY gained 3,626.10 points or 20.03% to close at 21,731.40 points. For the week, Dow was up 303.57 points or 0.81% to close at 37,689.54 points. The rally last year in the markets has been skewed and the bulk of the rally happened in the last couple of months. 

The rally in BSESENSEX was 18.74% of which 26.62% was in the first 10 months and the balance 73.38% in the remaining two months. In the case of NIFTY, the rally in the first 10 months was 26.85% while it was 73.15% in the remaining two months. 

Coming to the last week of the calendar year, we saw December futures expire on a positive note. The series fared very well for the bulls and gained 1,645.55 points or 8.17% t0 close at 21,778.70 points. 

The week gone by was the week of new listings and as many as eight listings happened during the four trading sessions. There were three listings each on Tuesday and Wednesday followed by one on Thursday and Friday. There are no IPOs pending as of date on the main board either to open or list. 

The first to list was Motisons Jewellers Limited which had issued shares at Rs 55. The discovered price on BSE on Tuesday was Rs103.90 and at end of day it closed at Rs 101.18, a gain of Rs 46.18 or 83.96%. By the end of the week, the share had lost further ground and closed at Rs 95.89, a gain of Rs 40.89 or 74.35%. 

The second share to list was Muthoot Microfin Limited which had issued shares at Rs 291. The discovered price was Rs 278, a loss of Rs 13 or 4.46%. Shares closed day one at Rs 266.20, a loss of Rs 24.80 or 8.52%. By the end of the week, the share had slipped further to close at Rs 251.20, a loss of Rs 39.80 or 13.67%. 

The third share to list was Suraj Estate Developers Limited which had issued shares at Rs 360. The discovered price was Rs 343.80, a loss of Rs 16.20 or 4.5%. The share closed day one at Rs 334.30, a loss of Rs 25.70 or 7.13%. By the end of the week, the share lost further to close at Rs 330.60, a loss of Rs 29.40 or 8.17%. 

The fourth share to list was on Wednesday the 27th of December. Shares of Credo Brands Marketing Limited which were issued at Rs 280 listed at Rs 282, a gain of Rs 2 or 0.71%. By end of day, they had gained further to close at Rs 312.50, a gain of Rs 32.50 or 11.60%. By the end of the week, the share lost some ground and closed at Rs 292.40, a gain of Rs 12.40 or 4.43%. 

The fifth share to list was RBZ Jewellers Limited. The share debuted day one at Rs 100 and closed at Rs 104.99. By the end of the week, the share had gained further and closed at Rs 115.74, a gain of Rs 15.74 or 15.74%. 

The sixth share to list was Happy Forgings Limited which had issued shares at Rs 850. The discovered price was Rs 1001.25, a gain of Rs 151.25 or 17.79%. By the end of the week, the share closed at Rs 1,029.10, a gain of Rs 179.10 or 21.07%. 

The seventh share to list was from Azad Engineering Limited which had issued shares at Rs 524. The discovered price was Rs 710, a gain of Rs 186 or 35.49%. Share closed day one at Rs 677.10, a gain of Rs 153.10 or 29.21%. share closed the week at Rs 692.40, a gain of Rs 168.40 or 32.13%. 

The eight and final share to list was Innova Cap tab Limited which had issued shares at Rs 448. The discovered price was Rs 456.10, a gain of Rs 8.10 or 1.80%. Share closed day one at Rs 545.15, a gain of Rs 97.15 or of 21.68%. 

It appears that investors who do intraday trading in newly listed shares have got caught on the wrong foot in Innova Cap Tab. Further in some of the listings, the grey market premiums have just disappeared post the issue getting subscribed. Probably its time to take a fresh look at grey market premiums and on their reliability. Of the eight listings last week, 2 of them are trading at a discount to the issue price. 

Coming to the year, month and week ahead, expect markets to trade in a more circumspect manner. We have seen the best of the markets in the short term and one should expect that January would be a month of sideways movement and correction. There would be no budget on 1st February as this is the election year and there would be a vote on account to take care of government expenditure. The biggest driver for markets would be the quarterly corporate results for the October -December quarter which would begin in the second week of January. Market men are also hoping that FPI buying will continue. 

The strategy would be to look to take some money of the table particularly from the Smallcap and midcap space. Sell into rallies and wait for really deep cuts to re-enter.  Trade cautiously. 

Wishing all readers, a happy, prosperous new year 2024.