The week gone by had plenty of action and drama and also a Wednesday. Markets went berserk with BSESENSEX gaining 1,022 points and NIFTY gaining 320 points. This mind you was the beginning of December futures as well. The driver for the rally was the ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia which was expected but as usual turned out to be another damp squib. Markets gained on two of the five trading sessions and lost on three. At the end of it all, BSESENSEX gained 474.75 points or 0.56% to close at 85,706.67 points while NIFTY gained 134.80 points or 0.52% to close at 26,202.95 points. BANKNIFTY gained 885 points or 1.50% to close at 59,752.70 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 0.63%, 0.64% and 0.60% respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 1.19% while BSESMALLCAP gained 0.08%.

The Indian Rupee gained 15 paisa or 0.17% to close at Rs 89.49 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on all four trading sessions and was up 1,470.86 points or 3.18% to close at 47,716.42 points. 

November futures expired with minor losses and the series has recovered ground in the last couple of weeks. NIFTY ended with losses of 51.40 points or 0.20% to close the series at 25,884.80 points. 

Monsoons are behind us but as far as primary markets are concerned, it appears as if the rains or the deluge has just begun. A couple of roadshows on the main board in a single day and about four five issues during the week is par for the course. We have as many as three issues which would be opening and closing during the week ahead, with many roadshows lined up as well. The first is from Meesho Limited which would open on Wednesday the 3rd of December and close on Friday the 5th of December. The issue consists of a fresh component of Rs 4,250 crores and an offer for sale of 10.55 crore shares in a price band of Rs 105-111. The company is an online market place for sellers and customers and does not charge commission to its sellers. 

The second issue is from Aequs Limited which is into aerospace, consumer goods and toys. The issue would open on Wednesday the 3rd of December and close on Friday the 5th of December. The issue consists of a fresh issue of Rs 670 crores and an offer for sale of 2.03 crore shares in a price band of Rs 118-124 per share. 

The third issue is from Vidya Wires Limited which would also open on Wednesday the 3rd of December and close on Friday the 5th of December. The issue consists of a fresh issue of Rs 274 crores and an offer for sale of 50 lakh shares in a price band of Rs 48-52. 

Coming to the markets in the week ahead, it will be driven by news and news alone. GDP numbers declared over the weekend showed growth. The possibility of Ukraine-Russia war ending could be a trigger once again. Incidentally Wednesday mania was on that account. The India-USA trade deal seems round the corner, but the corner doesn’t seem to get any closer. All of these have the potential to drive the markets, but the question today, is when it will happen. Till then markets will remain in an extended trading zone. 

While on the support side, NIFTY has good support at around 26,000 points and lower down at 25,700 points, on the upper side there is an open pathway currently. The only catch is news flow. Play the markets by the ear. Have the other ear firmly on the ground to catch the distant roar as it comes. 

The strategy would be to buy on dips. Make small churns and await the major wave to ride it. 

Apologies to my readers for missing the last two newsletters.

Trade cautiously.

It was a subdued week on expected lines at the bourses. With a mid-week holiday on Wednesday, markets made a small uptick on Monday, then lost pre-holiday and continued to lose post the holiday as well. There were gains on one of the four trading sessions and losses on three. BSESENSEX lost 722.43 points or 0.86% to close at 83,216.28 points while NIFTY lost 229.80 points or 0.89% to close at 25,492.30 points. BANKNIFTY gained 100.45 points or 0.17%. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200, BSE500 lose 0.85%, 0.77% and 0.84% respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 0.59% while BSESMALLCAP was down 1.53%. The top sectorial gainer was BSEBANKEX which was up 0.12% while the top loser was BSEPOWER down 3.44%. , 

The Indian Rupee gained 9 paisa or 0.10% to close at Rs 88.68 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on two of the five trading sessions and lost on three. It was down 575.77 points or 1.21% to close at 46,987.10 points. 

New IPO listings have continued their negative trend on listing day. Orkla India was yet another example of a company doing well during roadshows, having a positive premium throughout issue subscription and just before listing, and yet failing the last test. Against the issue price of Rs 730, the share opened at Rs 751.50, made a high of Rs 755, low of Rs 693.35 and closed at Rs 713.40 a loss of Rs 16.60. All prices are of BSE.  On Friday, the share lost further ground and closed at Rs 706.75, a loss of Rs 23.25 or 3.18%. 

The other share to list on the main board was Studds Accessories Limited which had issued shares at Rs 585. The share opened at Rs 570, made a high at Rs 585, low at Rs 555.80 and closed at Rs 560.45. The loss was Rs 24.55 or 4.20%. Clearly showing that there is a big fatigue factor in the markets as far as primary issuances are concerned. 

Shares of Lenskart Solutions Limited which had issued shares at Rs 402 will list on the bourses today. GMP has been quite wild in the share and has fallen from around Rs 135 levels to as low as Rs 2. Currently it trades at Rs 10. Irrespective of where the issue opens, this was a hotly debated issue in terms of valuations, promoter greed and various market participants commenting on their subscribing and not subscribing to the issue. Reasons were offered for both cases. These types of comments are new to the market place and tantamount to influencing investor participation.  Not sure how the regulator would look at this new trend as it seems a little tough to digest. 

The IPO rush continues with Pine Labs Limited having opened on Friday.  EMMVEE Photovoltaic Power Limited would open on Tuesday and would be followed by Physicswallah Limited following and alsoopening on Tuesday. The rush to launch IPO just never seems to end. 

USA seems to continue to have problems with tariffs. Supreme Court which is hearing the matter on the same seems to be caught in a bind with judges from both political parties seeming not to agree with the rational of Trump in imposing the tariffs and bringing world trade to a big mess. God knows, what the final outcome would be but things have become messy. The whole tariff situation is work in progress and extremely fluid. 

Friday, results for Bihar elections would be announced and the exit poll outcome would be declared on Tuesday evening. There would be repercussions post these announcements.

The last week of results reporting has begun and would end on 15th of November. Bharti Airtel declared an excellent set of results, yet the price fell. Wonder whether the impact of primary markets is also being felt on secondary markets. 

Coming to levels in the week ahead, expect markets to look for triggers which seem missing. Support exists at levels of 25,200-25,300 and lower down at levels of 24,600-24,800 points. On resistance, 26,000-26,150 is a tough nut to crack. God willing if it does happen we could see levels of around 26,500 points. The strategy would be continue intra-day trades as markets are currently looking for direction and clarity on the trade front. Until that happens it makes sense to lie low. 

Trade cautiously.