Friend’s year end is time for stock taking and for a performance review. Your website has not completed its first year as yet but the end of the year is a good time to look at how the performance has been. An attempt has been made to look at all the recommendations made during the year about IPO’s, FPO’s and NCD. In all a total of 34 issues were reviewed during the year which included 30 IPO’s, 3 FPO’s and one NCD. The success rate has been quite good as can be seen from the table given below.

						Listing Week			2009-10
Sr No	Company	Price Band	Discovered Price	Listing Date	Recommendation Made	High	Low	Close	High	Low	close
1	Adani Power	90-100	100	20th Aug	A bird in hand is better than two in the bush (avoid)	107.90	98.50	105.10	117.80	90.25	115.95
2	NHPC	30-36	36	1st Sept	Stiffly Priced – Apply if you can sell in grey market	39.75	34.30	34.60	39.75	29.85	30.50
3	Jindal Cotex	70-75	75	22nd Sept	Subscribe only if you have patience	94.25	82.05	84.85	120.50	75.00	81.15
4	Globus Spirits	90-100	100	23rd Sept	Attractively priced issue – for the medium term	111.30	84.55	85.40	142.00	74.05	135.55
5	Oil India	950-1050	1050	30th Sept	Subscribe at Bata price (999) or mid price band	1173.30	1019.00	1141.00	1374.80	1019.00	1150.55
6	Pipavav Shipyard	55-60	58	9th October	Very Expensive currently – invest only if long term investor	64.70	53.60	56.90	72.60	47.65	70.40
7	Euro Multivision	70-75	75	15th October	Sunshine sometime away	80.90	37.35	41.25	80.90	23.55	24.14
8	Thinksoft Global	120-130	125	26th October	Exit for PE investor at cost of new investor (avoid)	231.40	100.00	226.70	544.00	100.00	187.80
9	Indiabulls Power	40-45	45	30th October	Subcribe for short and medium term gains	45.50	31.75	34.65	45.50	28.65	30.75
10	Den Networks	195-205	195	24th November	Extremely Expensive – Avoid	197.00	151.00	160.20	208.00	151.00	195.30
11	Astec Lifesciences	77-82	82	25th November	Subscribe	90.70	80.00	83.40	96.10	44.00	49.00
12	Cox and Kings	316-330	330	11th December	Subscribe – Make money when people holiday	475.00	304.10	414.95	504.90	304.10	481.65
13	JSW Energy	100-115	100	4th January	Good Company, good business but bad price	118.00	99.90	112.75	123.90	99.90	111.80
14	Godrej Properties	490-530	490	5th January	Subscribe for medium term gains	586.70	446.90	509.45	586.70	446.90	513.10
15	DB Corp	185-212	212	6th January	Subscribe for decent medium term gains	274.60	207.40	254.90	274.60	207.40	239.15
16	MBL Infrastructure	165-180	180	8th January	Expensive compared to peers – Avoid	218.00	182.20	186.55	247.60	182.20	225.65
17	Infinite Computer	155-165	165	3rd February	Subscribe for listing gains	217.85	178.35	203.30	222.90	178.35	190.85
18	Jubilant Foodworks	135-145	145	8th February	First of its kind in the listed space but Expensive Apply only if you are a big risk taker	253.10	161.60	229.90	361.80	161.60	313.65
19	Syncom Healthcare	65-75	75	15th February	Pricing is extraordinarily expensive	107.25	79.50	80.00	162.40	70.65	119.95
20	Vascon Engineers	165-185	165	15th February	Good business but demanding steep valuations – Stay away	173.45	130.60	132.15	173.45	119.00	155.30
21	Thangamayil Jewellery	70-75	75	19th February	22K –Subscribe	72.80	62.00	65.20	82.40	62.00	81.35
22	Aqua Logistics	220-230	220	23rd February	Extremely expensive – Simply AVOID	255.95	219.40	239.30	286.40	219.40	271.15
23	DB Realty	468-486	468	24th February	Nothing on the table for investors -AVOID	473.00	407.00	445.05	540.10	407.00	458.50
24	Emmbi Polyarns	40-45	45	24th February	Expensive  – AVOID	48.35	25.45	26.20	48.35	20.10	20.75
25	Hathway Cable	240-265	240	25th February	Nothing on the table – Profitability long way off	246.00	189.10	212.65	246.00	189.10	207.20
26	ARSS Infrastructure	410-450	450	3rd March	Must Subscribe	838.65	640.00	797.00	998.00	640.00	928.50
27	Texmo Pipes	85-90	90	10th March	Expensive – If looking at listing gains may take risk	160.65	101.5	159.75	162.80	90.20	92.35
28	Man Infrastructure	243-252	252	11th March	Attractive Valuations – Subscribe	379	322.5	371.55	408.45	322.50	360.10
29	DQ Entertainment	75-80	80	29th March	Great Future – Subscribe	140.00	103.00	112.25	140.00	103.00	112.25
30	IL&FS Transportation	242-258	258	30th March	Subscribe for the medium term	295.00	270.10	278.45	295.00	270.10	278.45
	FPO
1	NTPC	Floor price	201	19th February	A great opportunity to invest in – Subscribe	205.5	198.65	200.2	241.7	196.1	207
2	REC	Floor price	203	8th March	Attractive offer – Must subscibe	246.5	225.05	242.85	274.5	205.15	249.9
3	NMDC	300-350	300	29th March	Price leaves nothing for investor – Avoid the issue	301	283.5	294.15	571.8	283.5	294.15
4	L&T Finance NCD	1000	1000	24th September	Subscribe for listing gains	1088	1026	1087.34	1199.65	1015	1036

– All prices are from BSE except L&T Finance NCD which is from NSE.
– Listing week means first five trading days of year.
– Closing price for 2009-10 is close of 31st March 2010.

Two issues of the 34 reviewed remained unsubscribed at the end of the subscription period and their closing had to be extended. This website stuck to its decision of avoiding these issues and what happened in one of them after the stock moved to trade to trade is history. The other one is in the midst of controversy and what next will happen is anybody’s guess. Barring these two issues, this website has had a decent first year performance calling 28 recommendations of the 32 as correct. The two issues were recommended as avoid and have closed the year as positive.

We wish to thank all our readers and we wish to commit ourselves to providing unbiased views on the primary markets irrespective of various pulls and pressures which are a part of this market place. It will be our endeavour to present a perspective on the issues with the retail investor in mind and we would welcome comments, feedback and suggestions from our esteemed readers.

We wish all our readers a great year ahead.

During the financial year 2009-2010 a total of 35 IPO’s listed. Their performance is enumerated in the table below. Of the 35 issues as many as 24 or 68.57% ended in positive territory. Closing in the negative were 11 or 31.4% of the issues. The top gainer was Jubilant Foodworks Limited which gained 116.31%. The issue was priced at Rs 145 and closed at Rs 313.65, an absolute gain of Rs 168.65. The second top performer was yet another century maker ARSS Infrastructure Limited which issued shares at Rs 450, and gained Rs 478.50 or 106.33% to close at Rs 928.50.

The biggest loser was Euro Multivision which lost 67.81% of its issue price of Rs 75. The stock closed at Rs 24.14 down Rs 50.86. The second biggest loser was Rishabdev Technocables which lost 66.76%. The issue was priced at Rs 33, lost Rs 22.03 and is currently quoting at Rs 10.97.

The performance of the 35 IPO’s is as follows.
2 stocks gained 100% or more
1 stock gained 80% or more but less than 100%
2 stocks gained more than 50% but less than 60%
3 stocks gained more than 40% but less than 50%
2 stocks gained more than 25% but less than 40%
6 stocks gained more than 10% but less than 25%
4 stocks gained more than 5% but less than 10%
4 stocks gained less than 5%

On the negative side 4 stocks lost less than 25%
2 stocks lost more than 25% but less than 50%
5 stocks lost more than 50% but less than 67%   

FPO
There were three follow on offers and all were from the government. They were from NTPC, REC and NMDC. The success story was REC which returned excellent returns to investors. The share gave returns of almost 15% on day one of the share being available for trading and has given returns of 23% till date.

NTPC has given very small returns of a mere 3% but the disappointment has been NMDC which is down 2% but the stock has fallen from a high of Rs 572 to below Rs 300, a fall of more than 47%.

It has been interesting during the year that pricing has been the key factor throughout the year. Wherever promoters have priced the issue reasonably and left money on the table for investors, there has been excellent response. However where pricing has been expensive, they have received poor response. I believe this should be a key factor to watch in future issues.

In conclusion let me repeat a statement which I had made about the full form of IPO – It’s Probably Overpriced.