The outgoing FM Pranab Mukherjee was to give a parting gift to the stock market and we were all prepared that there would be something in it for us mere mortals. Well nothing happened. Our Honourable PM Manmohan Singh who is also the acting FM announced that he would press the button to fast forward the economy and introduce the much needed reforms. So far all we have seen is dates being given like a case pending in India’s various courts. First it was the President’s election. Then it was the swearing in of the President. Then the election of the Vice President which happens on the 7th of August and Parliament begins its monsoon session on the 8th of August. The acting FM has also given another date that by Independence Day reforms should be announced.
One believes that very clearly the intent and will power needed to take tough measures is gone. General elections are due in May 2014 which gives the present government a mere 8-9 months to take decisions for the 38-40 months that they have virtually done nothing. This government has been plagued by SCAMS of varying degrees and in almost all spheres. The current situation is such that no politician or minister wants to take any decision, no bureaucrat wants to do the same and Delhi is like a quagmire. Everything is simply stuck. It’s a horrible situation. The allies are busy making money and one would bill the 13th Presidential elections as the costliest the country has ever seen.
Should we believe what the government says when it announces dates? No. There past record is simply poor and there is virtually no track record to go by to feel otherwise. The fiscal deficit which is looming large and is likely to push the country into a major slowdown is no concern at all. Diesel prices continue to remain at levels last changed in June 2010. Just last week some rationalisation of petrol and diesel prices was done across the country where prices were raised and lowered in roughly half the states. Why along with this rationalisation could prices not be raised for diesel? To expect the government to do so in the period when parliament is in session is ridiculous. It has never happened and our government simply does not have the ‘guts’ to do it.
The monsoon has hit the nation badly and in many parts there is an issue with water for drinking purposes being deficient and therefore sowing of crops has been affected. Inflation in the country is running high and with food prices shooting up in the last few days, inflation numbers would rise further showing no respite. The levels could indeed be damaging. The present rural schemes of the government would need further allocations increasing our fiscal deficit further.
My sincere advice to readers is that simply ignore any such date given by the government as it is meaningless. If one wants to act there is no need to consult an astrologer and then announce that they would intimate something on the ‘ShubhMuhurat’ day. In any case when they build up expectations there is always a crash landing.
Invest and trade in the market on your understanding and do not get carried away by these never ending and meaningless dates.