The markets made new intraday and closing highs on both the SENSEX and the NIFTY, but profit taking or correction or a sell off saw the gains being given up. The week ended flat with the SENSEX closing at 22,359 points a weekly gain of 19 points, while the NIFTY closed at 6,776, a weekly loss of 1.55 points. The crucial point was that the broader indices like the BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 all gained between 0.41% and 0.75%. What is even more heartening is the fact that the BSEMIDCAP and BSESMALLCAP gained handsomely at 2.67% and 3.80%.
Results season is almost there and would begin in full earnest in the following week beginning 14th April. There are four trading holidays on the 8th (Tuesday), 14th (Monday), 18th (Friday) and 24th (Thursday) in the current month. This makes trading till expiry which would happen on Wednesday the 23rd April as a mere 10 trading sessions. This would make markets highly volatile and there could be sharp intraday moves.
Election scene is picking up and the first round of voting happens on Monday the 7th of April. The entry of religious heads does not augur well for democracy and would lead to polarisation of voters on the basis of religion. The Congress is known to resort to all sorts of tricks when the chips are down and probably this is one of those desperate acts at the 11th hour. It has already led to criticism from within the family of the religious head and would in all probability lead to consolidation of the anti-congress vote, something which is being decried by other parties mainly from UP.
The markets have seen strong buying by FII’s who invested as much as Rs 22,350 crs or 3.7 billion dollars in the month of March. Historically there best investment is around 19-21 billion in a calendar year. The first quarter has begun well with March being the key change.
The rally is turning into a broader one and augurs well for the sustainability of the same. It’s now a matter of time before retail returns to the market, not to buy but to sell because their prices have come. Its only after they have sold some shares, made some money will they venture to make fresh purchases.
Exit polls are slowly but steadily veering to the magical figure of 272 plus for the BJP led NDA. What would be the final outcome and tally would be known only on the 16th May and that is a good 6 weeks away and there would be many a drama before that.
The week ahead would be one of consolidation and be a quiet one in comparison to what we have seen in the previous weeks. While the benchmark indices would take a break or a breather the momentum in the rest of the market would continue.
Enjoy the markets, the election drama and the summer heat.
