NHPC listed on the 1st of September 2009 and has been under pressure from day one. The table annexed below indicates the pressure the stock has been under and also the selling for delivery that has been witnessed in the stock. On day one 35 cr shares were delivered and the stock managed to hold on in positive territory. Today the pressure increased considerably and the stock tanked touching a low of Ra 34.30 on both the exchanges. The stock recovered from the lows and closed at Rs 35.25 on both the exchanges.
The selling pressure saw the volumes increasing on the counter. The total delivery since listing or in the four days of trading is 49.23 cr shares or roughly 29.5 % of the IPO. Considering the issue size this is a huge number and confirms the fact that probably the share was overpriced and the hype created during the road show increased the interest of all the various segments concerned leading to an overall subscription of over 23 times and the HNI category of roughly 55-56 times.
| BSE | Open | High | Low | Close | Net Change | Traded Volume | Delivery | Wt Average | Del % age |
| 1st Sept | 39.00 | 39.75 | 36.60 | 36.70 | 0.60 | 193593717 | 82387998 | 37.37 | 42.56 |
| 2nd Sept | 36.60 | 37.60 | 35.75 | 36.40 | -0.30 | 33883764 | 10573827 | 36.75 | 31.21 |
| 3rd Sept | 36.85 | 37.15 | 36.05 | 36.10 | -0.30 | 21385214 | 8480007 | 36.40 | 39.65 |
| 4th Sept | 36.90 | 36.90 | 34.30 | 35.25 | -0.85 | 37588516 | 12325035 | 35.18 | 32.79 |
| Total | 286451211 | 113766867 | 39.72 | ||||||
| NSE | |||||||||
| 1st Sept | 42.00 | 42.00 | 36.65 | 36.75 | 0.75 | 508832326 | 270162234 | 37.38 | 53.09 |
| 2nd Sept | 36.45 | 37.60 | 35.75 | 36.35 | -0.40 | 93326373 | 42247261 | 36.76 | 45.27 |
| 3rd Sept | 36.50 | 37.20 | 36.00 | 36.10 | -0.25 | 56420302 | 28628071 | 36.37 | 50.74 |
| 4th Sept | 36.75 | 36.75 | 34.30 | 35.25 | -0.85 | 85231353 | 37520051 | 35.18 | 44.02 |
| Total | 743810354 | 378557617 | 50.89 | ||||||
| Total of BSE and NSE | 1030261565 | 492324484 | 47.79 | ||||||
Subscription to OIL India opens from Monday the 7th of September and remains open till the 10th of September. The response to NHPC post listing has been weak and led many people in the retail category who have not yet sold their shares to suffer a notional loss. The sentiment is affected and has become negative to a certain extent as regards new issues.
IOC has announced that its board of Directors would consider an issue of bonus shares on Sunday the 13th of September. The government is also considering the increase in price of gas being supplied by ONGC. This would help ONGC improve its margins as at the proposed rates there would be no loss suffered by ONGC on the gas front. This would be positive for ONGC and also for Oil India. These measures maybe unrelated but do give a sense that the OIL India issue needs to be supported and the present sentiment is not the best.
Adani power also saw huge selling pressure, with the share going below the issue price and closing below the issue price as well. This is for the first time since listing on 20th August that Adani Power has closed below Rs 100. The closing price was Rs 98.60.
There are two objectives to be achieved in the next four trading sessions. The first is to ensure that OIL India issue receives the proper response and the issue does well for itself befitting the size and stature. The second objective is to ensure that sentiment does not get further affected on account of the price fall in the shares of NHPC. I believe it would be interesting to see how NHPC performs and also the interest that is generated in the oil stocks such as ONGC, IOC, HPCL and BPCL in the next three days.
In conclusion NHPC is weak and would be under pressure during the next week. The stock is likely to see strong support around the 30-31 levels.
