Performance of NIFTY on monthly basis

The March series futures expired on Thursday 26th March and it sure was not a good day. The NIFTY fell over 200 points and the series expired at 8,342.15 a monthly loss of 344.70 points or 3.97%. What this data does not capture is the fact that intra month the loss was much more as the lifetime high in the NIFTY of 9,119.20 points was made on the 4th of March or in this very expiry. The fall from there to expiry is 777 points more than double the actual fall.

The ride through the year 2014-15 which was riding the Modi wave has by and large been positive with eight of the 12 months registering gains and 4 months registering losses. What is significant is the fact that the first loss came only in September in the sixth month. The second loss was in December and then we have seen losses in February and March with the loss in March being the biggest. The year ended with gains of 25%, decent by all standards.

Month Current Value Previous Month Net Change % Change
of Expiry Value
Apr-14 6840.80 6641.75 199.05 3.00
May-14 7235.65 6840.80 394.85 5.77
Jun-14 7493.20 7235.65 257.55 3.56
Jul-14 7721.30 7493.20 228.10 3.04
Aug-14 7954.35 7721.30 233.05 3.02
Sep-14 7911.85 7954.35 -42.50 -0.53
Oct-14 8169.20 7911.85 257.35 3.25
Nov-14 8494.20 8169.20 325.00 3.98
Dec-14 8174.20 8494.20 -320.00 -3.77
Jan-15 8952.35 8174.20 778.15 9.52
Feb-15 8686.85 8952.35 -265.50 -2.97
Mar-15 8342.15 8686.85 -344.70 -3.97
2014-15 8342.15 6641.75 1700.40 25.60

The year ahead would be more difficult than the previous year and one would have to wait for corporate performance to catch up with market prices which have run up and also the reforms which are surely but steadily kicking in. The coal mines bill and the mining and minerals bill have been passed. The insurance bill was passed even earlier and the land acquisition bill would be promulgated after Rajya Sabha is prorogued. The bill is on course and would see the light of day sooner than later. The message to industry loud and clear is this government means business and will clear impediments preventing smooth functioning and growth.

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