Stray thoughts on a Monday morning

Markets have been weak on Friday and it is on the back of global markets. The Dow in the last two days has lost about 500 points and 3.59% in the week. This is the worst week since November 2011. The SENSEX has made a new closing high on Thursday when it closed at 21,373.66 points against the closing of 21,326.42 points made on 9th December 2013 when the SENSEX made an all-time high. There is interest in the market but scepticism currently is fairly high. Results so far have been good but these are from the larger companies and predominantly from the IT and pharma space. Here also treasury income has helped in the overall picture while there is pressure on margins.

The week ahead would see RBI governor RR declaring his policy review on Tuesday followed by a two day US FED meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday would see the January series futures expire. These three events would keep the markets active and give plenty of opportunity to move. It is important to note that markets are still range bound and are trading in a roughly 700-800 points range on the SENSEX and 200-220 points on the NIFTY. For there to be a meaningful move we need to get out of this range and it does not look like this would happen any time soon.

The Delhi experiment seems to be turning out into a bigger mess with every passing day and it appears that the time when voters of this experiment will revert to the normal political party are not too far away. When this clarity will hit Dalal Street we are likely to see new highs surpassing the 21,500 mark and crossing 22K as well.

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