Will RBI Cut Rates?

The May series expired on a quiet note but ended with gains of 137.50 points or 1.68%. It surrendered half the lead that it had in the four days of trading in the last week. Friday was the beginning of a new account and June series which began with a bang. Markets recovered sharply and ended on a positive note.

GDP numbers for the 4th quarter came in post the market and they were at an impressive 7.5% for the quarter. This makes the full year GDP for 2014-2015 at 7.3%. Impressive yet needs improvement and agriculture and industry are the two areas which this can happen.

RBI meets on Tuesday the 2nd of June for its monetary review and with inflation softening and GDP on the road to progress, it is more than certain that rates will be cut this time. The expectation is that there would be cuts in CRR so that rates soften and because there is no issue of liquidity allow banks to borrow and lend to RBI also cheaper. Therefore cut in repo and reverse repo is also expected. The silver lining to the policy could be if SLR is reduced which will actually free money into the banking system.

The mood going into June ism optimistic and buoyant and if RR delivers as the street wants, we could see a sharp rally in the coming days. Ride the rally as it unfolds.

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