The week gone by had many events rolled into one. It saw the expiry of December futures series, the end of trading for calendar year 2025 and a new all-time high on the benchmark indices. Let us evaluate and discuss each of them later in the article. BSESENSEX gained 720.56 points or 0.85% to close at 85,762.01 points while NIFTY gained 286.25 points or 1.10% to close at 26,328.55 points. BANKNIFTY gained 1,139.60 points or 1.93% to close at 60,150.95 points. It was a broad based rally and across the board. BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gained 1.25%, 1.38% and 1.35% respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 1.75% while BSESMALLCAP gained 1.17%. BSESENSEX gained on two of the five trading sessions, while NIFTYY gained on three sessions. The gain or loss on Thursday was quite small and it could actually be termed as sideways. The top sectorial performer was BSEMETAL which gained 5.60%. 

The Indian Rupee lost 33 paisa or 0.37% to close at Rs 90.13 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones lost 328.58 points or 0.67% to close at 48,382.39 points. Dow gained on one of the four sessions and lost on three. 

Coming first to December futures expiry which happened on Tuesday the 30th of December, it was a quiet affair. For the series, NIFTY gained 54.05 points or 0.21% to close at 48,382.39 points. It closed at 25,938.85 points. The series had begun at 25,884.80 points. 

Friday the 2nd of January saw fresh new all-time high indices being made on the NIFTY and BANK NIFTY on an intraday and closing basis while BSESENSEX made only a closing high. The intraday high remains at 86,159.02 points which was made on 1st of December. The intraday highs on NIFTY and BANKNIFTY are at 26,240 and at 60,203.75 respectively. 

BSESENSEX was impacted by ITC which bore the brunt of selling over the last two days on account of a new central excise announced which would come into effect from 1st of February. This would be over and above the GST which already exists.  ITC lost Rs 54.15 or 13.39% to close at Rs 350.15. The impact of this fall would translate to about 450 points on BSESENSEX. If one were to take this into account, even BSESENSEX would have made a new intraday high. 

There was one mainboard IPO which listed during the week. Shares of Gujarat Kidney Hospital Limited which were issued at Rs 114 listed on Tuesday the 30th of December. The discovered price on BSE was Rs 120.75. They closed at Rs 104.65 on day one and lost marginally to close at Rs 102.90 on Friday, a loss of Rs 11.10 or 9.74%. 

The issue from Coal India Limited subsidiary, Bharat Coking Coal Limited would open at the end of the coming week. Price band and roadshow would be held in Mumbai on Friday. 

Markets have made a new high finally and this is even though there has been no news on geo-political side or trade deal between US and India. The most important news that can impact markets immediately is the coming to an end of the Russia-Ukraine war. This would automatically see tariffs on India halving from 50% to 25%. This would take care of a lot of uncertainty present in the markets. How soon can this happen? Your guess is as good as mine. On a more realistic note, the situation on the ground indicate that hostilities are likely to cease in the next 15 days or so as all the sponsors of Ukraine are now fed up of funding it. This could be a big trigger for the markets. Besides this, Union Budget is around four weeks away. 

With last week’s market moves, the trading zone has moved upwards. Support exists at levels of 26,000 and lower down at 25,800 points. Resistance is around 26,800 points and further up at levels of 27,000 points. Markets are not going to run away from these levels but they are going to have a grind upwards. The strategy would be to build on a portfolio with stocks which have performed on the financial front in the last few quarters. The government has signaled its intent with levying excise duty on tobacco and cigarettes with a one month notice that they would ensure growth post the budget. 

With the new high on indices, behind us, it’s time to concentrate on stocks in the market place. Trade cautiously.

Markets have a mind of their own and they moved in a listless manner over the last week drifting down. They however took technical support at levels which were mentioned last week and recovered. Whether the recovery is short lived or meaningful, only time will tell. For the week they have survived. BSESENSEX gained on one of the five trading sessions and lost on four. It was down 338.30 points or 0.40% to close at 84,929.36 points while NIFTY lost 80.55 points or 0.31% to close at 25,966.40 points. BANK NIFTY lost 320.75 points or 0.54% to close at 59,069.20 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 AND BSE500 lose 0.26%, 0.22% and 0.23% respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained a tad at 0.15% while BSESMALLCAP lost 0.18%. The lows from where markets turned on Thursday were at 84,238.43 points on BSESENSEX and at 25,726.30 points on NIFTY.

The Indian Rupee which has been under pressure managed to hold on and gained 9 paisa or 0.10% to close at Rs 90.43 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on two of the five sessions and lost on three. It lost 323.16 points or 0.67% to close at 48,134.89 points. 

Coming to primary markets, we had five listings last week. While there were two listings on Monday and Wednesday each, the fifth and final listing was on Friday. There is IPO fatigue and of the five listings we had two closing below issue price on day one. Yet another slipped during the week. Only two had great debuts. The first was Corona Remedies which against an issue price of Rs 1,062 closed day one at Rs 1,437.20. The share lost ground during the week and closed at Rs 1,374.85, a gain of Rs 312.85 or 29.86%. 

The other star performer was the issue from ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co Ltd which had issued shares at Rs 2,165. The share listed at Rs 2,606.20 on BSE and at Rs 2,600 on NSE. The share closed at Rs 2,586.70, a gain of Rs 421.70, or 19.48%. The gains were impressive because this was a mega issue of over Rs 10,600 crores. Further the delivery volume on day one was a massive 2.22 crore shares which was 70.82% of the traded volume of 3.14 crore shares. The issue size was 4.89 crore shares and if one were to consider it without the anchor position, this would reduce to 2.93 crore shares. This means that on day one, as much as 75.57% of the non-anchor position has changed hands. This augurs well for the share and signals fresh upsides in the short to medium term for the share. With the company becoming the new market benchmark for listed AMC stocks, one would follow this for trends in the mutual fund industry. 

The shares to trade lower on listing day were Wakefit Innovations and Park Medi World. The one that after listing positive on day one slipped into negative territory was Nephrocare Health Services Limited. 

There is one issue opening in the week ahead from Gujarat Kidney and Super Specialty Limited. The issue consists of a fresh issue of 2.2 crore shares in a price band of Rs 108-114. The issue would open on Monday the 22nd of December and close on Wednesday the 24th of December. The objects of the offer include two acquisitions. The first is of Parekhs Hospital Pvt Limited and the second is of Ashwini Medical Centre, both of which are operating hospitals in Gujarat. Further, the company since filing the DRHP has acquired another hospital, Harmony Medicare in the current first half of FY26. Considering these three facts the present PE multiple of 58.38-61.62 does not take into account the same. If one had an insight into the working of these three hospitals and their past performance it would have helped in better evaluation of the same. In any case, considering the business model of growing through acquisitions, acquiring hospital which are mid-sized, located in Gujarat, where promoters and people running the hospital are doctors, is a great business model. Investments are warranted for the long term considering the upside with the acquisitions mentioned. 

It appears that post this issue, primary markets on the main board are likely to take a short holiday hopefully. It would be a good time to look at the over 103 issues listed in the year so far and final number of 105 that would complete the tally for 2025.

Coming back to the markets in the week ahead, we still await news. Till now it was news on the Ukraine-Russia war and the India US trade deal. To that, we will now add news on Q3 results which will be upcoming in January. Even small positive news would be big for markets, while no news would be bad news. We have solid support at levels of 25,700 on NIFTY and last Thursday was an example of the same. On the upside, resistance zone currently exists at 26,250 points. 

The strategy would be to refrain from large positions. Also remember we celebrate Christmas on Thursday the 25th of December which is a global holiday for major markets. It breaks any momentum which may build in the market and reverse trends. I believe with the year end a mere 7 trading sessions away, time to look at start preparing for your portfolio balancing and reshuffle for 2026. 

Merry Christmas in advance and trade cautiously.