An eventful week passed on the bourses. Monday the 20th of October was the last day of Samvat 2081. Tuesday was just one hour of ‘Muhurat’ trading for the beginning of Samvat 2082. This was the first time since I remember (over 35 years) that Muhurat trading was conducted in the afternoon, between 1.45 pm and 2.45pm. Typically since time immemorial this was always conducted in the evening between various times of 5pm to 7pm for one hour. One should hope and pray to Goddess Laxmi that this new change brings prosperity to all. This was followed by a holiday on Wednesday. When markets were to reopen on Thursday the 23rd of October, GIFTNIFTY had gone crazy on expectations that the US-India Trade deal would be signed right away and gains indicated that we were at an all-time high. Nothing of that sort happened. Neither the trade deal, nor the new high and we are still awaiting the trade deal. Will it happen this week? Your guess is as good as mine. Suffice to say that Trump loves to be on front page all the time in not only the USA but all other countries as well. 

One stark highlight of last week’s trading was the attempt markets made every trading day to simply run away, and failing to do so on even one of the four trading sessions. Markets corrected from the intraday highs on all the four sessions and were under pressure. Results season is on, but early indications do not point to a block buster results season. 

BSESENSEX gained 259.69 points or 0.31% to close at 84,211.88 points while NIFTY gained 85.30 points or 0.33% to close at 25,795.15 points. BANKNIFTY lost 13.75 points or 0.02% to close at 57,699.60 points. BSEMIDCAP was up 0.51% while BSESMALLCAP gained 0.90%. The broader indices saw the BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 0.33%, 0.32% and 0.36% respectively. Indian Markets gained on three of the four trading sessions and lost on one. 

The Indian Rupee gained 19 paisa or 0.22% to close at Rs 87.76 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on four of the five trading sessions and lost on one. It was up 1,016.51 points or 2.20% to close at 47,207.12 points. Dow has been making new highs and the latest intraday high is at 47,326.73 points. 

The IPO season after a brief lull of under a week is back. We have three IPOs slated to open next week as of date with Orkla India Limited looking to raise through an OFS in a price band of Rs 695-730, approximately Rs 1,665 crores. The PE multiple of the issue is 37.2-39 based on the EPS of Rs 18.7 for the year ended March 25. The company had earned an EPS of Rs 18.7 for the year ended March 25. The issue would open on Wednesday the 29th of October and close on Friday the 31st of October. 

The second issue is from Studds Accessories Limited which is looking to tap the markets with its IPO which would open on Thursday the 30th of October and close on Monday the 3rd of November. The issue is entirely an offer for sale and there would be 77, 86,120 shares on offer. The price band of the issue is Rs 557-585. The PE band is 31.47-33.05 based on the EPS of Rs 17.7 for the year ended March 25. At the top end of the band, the issue would raise Rs 585 crores. 

The third issue is from Lenskart Solutions Limited. The issue is slated to open on Friday the 31st of October and close on Tuesday the 4th of November. The issue consists of a fresh issue of Rs 2,150 crores and an offer for sale of 13.22 crore shares in a price band of Rs 382-402. The total issue would be approximately Rs 7,500 crores at the top end of the price band. The PE multiple for the issue is a staggering 217.05-228.41 times the EPS of Rs 1.76.

The week ahead has October futures expiring on Tuesday the 28th of October. The current level of NIFTY at 25,795.15 points is 1,184.05 points or 4.81% higher than the start of the series at 24,611.10 points. The bulls have the series completely under their grip and there is no way that markets could see a loss of 1,200 points in 2 days. This series would be a bull’s story and while it was choppy and volatile, the series has seen the bulls adding to their kitty as the month progressed.  

It’s high time that the India-USA trade deal gets finalized. A lot is at stake and it appears the US President is hell bent on using this tariff tool as a ploy to remain on center stage globally. So far he is succeeding and to add to his theatrics, he seems to be travelling all over the world as well. Currently he is on a tour to Malaysia and would be visiting Japan and South Korea thereafter. His visit to South Korea would hopefully see some resolution on the contentious tariff issue with China. Russian oil has been sanctioned and India appears to have slowed down its purchases as seen optically. Final impact would be known only after Trump visits South Korea and meets the Chinese counterpart. 

Coming to our markets in the week ahead, we made a valiant attempt to make a new all-time high but failed to do so. The news flow anticipated just did not materialize. When it would happen is actually a million dollar question. What it has however done is opened up the markets with the range expanding. The intraday NIFTY high for the week was at 26,104.20 points while the close was at 25,795 points, a difference of 300 points which considering the Diwali week was huge. Resistance levels would now be at 26,150-26,250 points on NIFTY and support at 25,300-25,400 points. Levels of 25,500-25,550 would act as a pivot with sharp two sided moves in either direction taking place. 

The strategy would be to keep overnight positions light as the trade talks could be near completion and with Trump in Asia, he may announce them. If the policy is announced it has to be positive for India as without that being so, expect the government of the day not to sign. The biggest negative currently is the waiting pangs. 

Trade cautiously. 

The week prior to Diwali had the expected fireworks and indications are now available that we would be moving into new territory. Trump continues on his own and seems determined to bid for his Nobel Peace Prize all over again in 2026. Wishing him and the world all the best. This would certainly mean that new fronts of confrontation would be opened before they are resolved. 

BSESENSEX gained on three of the five trading sessions and was up 1,451.37 points or 1.76% to close at 83,952.19 points. NIFTY gained 424.50 points or 1.68% to close at 25,709.85 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.54%, 1.31% and 1.12% respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 2.01 points and was flat while BSESMALLCAP was down 337.61 points or 0.63%. The top sectorial gainer was BSEREALTY, up 4.12% while the top loser was last week’s gainer, BSEIT. It lost 2.30%. 

The Indian Rupee gained 69 paisa or 0.78% to close at Rs 87.95 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on three of the five trading sessions and lost on two. It was up 711.01 points or 1.56% to close at 46,190.61 points. Trump’s whimsical statements have begun to hurt the country and it seems to be losing its bargaining power as the top economy. It is forcing the world to come together and embark on a path of ‘de-dollarization’ which is gaining momentum and traction. This is certainly not in the interest of the USA, but no one in the country has the guts to say so to ‘POTUS’. 

Two of the biggies, Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank have declared quarterly results which have been good and augur well for the markets. Auto numbers are good and the impact of the massive GST reduction is reflecting in the buoyancy in the sector and others which are seeing similar traction. While the auto giants are yet to declare results, they would include a mere 9 days of sales under new GST regime in the results to be included. Further, after announcement of GST cut in the last week of August, auto sales and sales of other products being positively impacted had got deferred for the month. 

The primary market has definitely seen fatigue setting in. As of date in the current calendar year we have already seen more than 84 mainboard IPOs list with quite a few more waiting to launch. Easily one of the best in terms of number of issues and fund raised. This of course does not include the many OFS done on the exchanges, QIP issues and rights issues as well. Fund raising at its best. Have not spoken on the SME segment as that is difficult to understand and explain. 

Coming to SAMVAT 2081 which would be ending on Monday the 21st of October, it was a wild and choppy year. We began the year on 1st of November 2024 at levels of 79,389.06 points on BSESENSEX and 24,205.35 points on NIFTY. The lows made were during April 25 when levels of 71,425 and 21,743 points respectively were made. From there we have travelled a long way and closed at levels of 83,952 and 25,709, marginally lower than the highs of 84,172 and 25,781, both made on Friday the 17th of October. We have one more day to go before Samvat 2081 comes to an end. The year could be surmised as a below average year at the markets with returns of 5.75% on BSESENSEX and at 6.22% on NIFTY. 

‘MUHURAT’ trading would be held on Tuesday the 21st of October in the afternoon between 1.45 pm and 2.45 pm. This is the first time in over four decades that I remember that Muhurat trading would be held in the afternoon. Strange as it may sound, it’s an auspicious hour of trading and would like to wish all my readers, “A Happy Diwali and Prosperous Samvat 2082”. Wednesday would be a trading holiday for markets.

With last week’s up move and definite break upwards of resistance at 25,500-25,600 points, the levels shift upwards. New levels would now be at 26,100-26,200 points on NIFTY and support at 25,100-25,200 points. 

Trade cautiously.