The week gone by had a holiday on Thursday and also had NIFTY monthly futures expiring on Tuesday instead of the traditional Thursday that we have always come to associate the product with. Markets in India gained on two of the four trading sessions and lost on two. At the end of it all, BSESENSEX gained 780.71 points or 0.97% to close at 81,207.17 points, while NIFTY gained 239.55 points or 0.97% to close at 24,894.25 points. BANKNIFTY gained 1,199.90 points or 2.21% to close at 55,589.25 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.11%, 1.26% and 1.38%. BSEMIDCAP gained 2.08% while BSESMALLCAP gained 2.09%. Almost the entire weekly gains came on Wednesday, the 1st October when the new monthly futures series began with BSESENSEX gaining 714 points and NIFTY gaining 225 points. 

The Indian Rupee lost 5 paisa or 0.06% to close at Rs 88.77 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on all five trading sessions of the week. It was up 510.99 points or 1.10%. The Nobel Peace Prize for which Donald Trump has staked his claim and has put at stake geo-political stability will be announced on Friday the 10th of October. While Trump is nowhere in the picture, hopefully after being in a sour mood on losing out, things should start improving. Currently the US government is in a shutdown having exceeded its borrowing limits. How long the shutdown would last is anybody’s guess but what is happening is ugly. USA citizens are beginning to face the brunt of tariffs introduced. 

September futures expired on a slightly negative note in the expiry week. On an overall basis, the bulls just managed to pull of the series with gains of 110.20 points or 0.45% to close at 24,611.10 points. The series had begun at 24,500.90 points. 

The primary market mad rush of IPOs continues unabated. We had as many as 11 listings in four days last week. What shows fatigue factor is that of these 11 issues, five closed in negative within the first week. Of the six that closed positive, two of them were up less than 1% at 0.50% and 0.64% respectively. Very clearly, the going is getting tougher and tougher. One more very important factor is the so called ‘GMP’ or grey market premium which is referred to by investors before applying is failing them. Premiums of 35-40% disappear post closure of issue. Time to become cautious.

In terms of present issues which are open, we have one from Wework India Management Limited which opened last Friday and would close on Tuesday the 7th of October. The company is looking to raise Rs 3,000 crores from an offer for sale of 4.62 crore shares in a price band of Rs 615-648. The company is into the co-working and shared office space, of which we have seen as many as three issues over the last couple of months. 

The second issue is from Tata Capital Limited which comprises of a fresh issue of 21 crore shares and an offer for sale of 26.58 crore shares in a price band of Rs 310-326. This price came way below the unlisted price which traded as high as 1,100+ at the beginning of the year. Its high time investors become cautious as this is the third consecutive offering in recent times on the main board where the issue price is way below the unlisted price. The two other issues were NSDL and HDB Financial Services Limited. Tata Finance is an NBFC and a decent name in the lending space present across verticals. It would be the third largest AUM at 2.33 lakh crore after Bajaj Finance and Shriram Finance. The present NAV of the company is at Rs 82 as of 30th June which would improve to Rs 96.4 post the issue happening at the top end of the price band. 

The third and final issue is from LG Electronics India Limited which is tapping the markets with its offer for sale of 10.18 crore shares in a price band of Rs 1,080-1,140. The issue would open on Tuesday the 7th of October and close on Thursday the 9th of October. This would be the second South Korean company to list on the Indian bourses. Earlier, Hyundai Motors had listed on 22nd October 2024. This listing would happen on 14th of October, roughly eight days before the first anniversary of Hyundai’s listing. 

RBI in its monetary policy meeting held in the beginning of the week decided to keep interest rates unchanged. GST collection for September25 was at Rs 1, 89,000 crores, higher than the Rs 1, 86,000 crores in August 25. There has been a substantial reduction in GST rates from 22nd September and ever since the rate cut was announced in August, there was a destocking witnessed. Actual numbers to see for impact would be for October when it would reflect the growth in consumption post GST rate cut. 

Coming to the markets in the week ahead, expect them to remain volatile. It is still awaiting direction and news flow which could come from quarterly results. On the tariff front, it appears USA has drawn itself into a corner and is stuck with its stand. It will have to find a serious way out of this mess it finds itself in. Probably the weekend would see realization once the Nobel awards are announced. The strategy would be to lie low, await results and then look at rebuilding one’s portfolio. Results this time could be interesting as prudent managements are expected to talk about not only tariffs, but also GST impact. Levels of 24,900 on the upside mentioned last week held and acted as resistance. For this week they would move upwards to 25,100-200 levels and immediate support at 24,500. Choppy markets and tough volatile conditions is what should be the undertone. 

Trade cautiously.

The week was bad as bad can be. Markets lost on all five days of the week and ended on a very bearish note. It seems India is caught in the crosshairs of Donald Trump and has now become the sacrificial pawn between two mighty nations Russia and China on one side and USA on the other. Geopolitics is taking its toll on our markets which are still expensive. Add to it the constant supply of new paper, consistent selling by FPI’s and promoters and PE indulging in offer for sale every week. We have a situation where the plate even after being full, offers multiple choices and tempts you. It’s confusing and tempting at the same time. 

BSESENSEX lost 2,199.77 points or 2.66% to close at 80,426.46 points while NIFTY lost 672.35 points or 2.65% to close at 24,654.70 points. BANKNIFTY lost 1,069.50 points or 1.93% to close at 54,389.35 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE299 and BSE500 lose 2.93%, 3.09% and 3.27% respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 4.52% while BSESMALLCAP was down 4.29%. There were no sectorial gainers but the one to lose the least was BSEMETAL down 1.29%. The top loser was BSEIT down 7.34%. Things were bad and losses were suffered across the board. USA has imposed 100% tariff on branded and patented pharmaceutical products imported into USA from India. Generics have been left out from the levy. It appears his anger is not only against India but also against American citizens as they would have to pay the brunt of these increased costs indirectly when health insurance premiums rise. 

Let’s Make America Great Again ‘MAGA’, not sure, whether the path on which he is treading will lead to it or not, but currently he has ensured that economies worldwide are caught in Trump tariffs turbulence. 

The Indian Rupee lost 62 paisa or 0.70% to close at Rs 88.72 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones lost on three of the five trading sessions and was up on two. It lost 67.28 points or 0.15% to close at 46,247.29 points. 

September futures would be expiring on Tuesday the 30th of September. This is the first monthly expiry to happen on Tuesday after NSE changed the expiry dates. The current state of the series is that it is up 153.80 points or 0.63% higher than the series open of 24,500.90 points. Considering the volatility in the market currently where we lost 672 points last week, indicating an average daily loss of 135 points and Friday’s loss of 236 points, anything could happen. Momentum is with the bears but there could be a technical bounce as well. One would have to play by the ear. However, markets are in a state of flux. 

Primary issues on the main board are happening thick and fast and are becoming worrisome. There is a huge fundraising that will happen with roadshows during the coming short four day week. Tata Capital Limited would kick off its road show in Mumbai today (29th September) for its offer for sale of 47.58 crore shares in a price band of Rs 310-326. The company had declared an EPS of Rs 9.3 for the year ended March 25. The PE band for the company is 33.3-35.1. The shares of Tata Finance were traded on the unlisted market and were in the range of 735-810 in recent months. The high of the share in calendar year 2025 to date was Rs 1,125. This would be the third time that investors through the unlisted space would face a reality check after the recent issues of HDB Financial and NSDL. How would markets react to this during the day, am little unsure. From a prospective investor’s perspective, its great news while shareholder’s perspective it’s a disaster. 

Talking of IPO’s, Wework India Management Limited is also having its road show today for its upcoming IPO which would raise Rs 3,000 crores through an OFS in a price band of Rs 615-648. This would be followed by the long awaited issue from L G Electronics which would happen on Wednesday the 1st of October. Market expectations are that the issue size would be Rs 10, 000 crores bringing this total of three issues to a staggering Rs 28,000 crores in a span of seven days. There are of course other issues which would now wait for the refund of these shares waiting on the sidelines for their turn. Interesting times depending on which way you want to look at things. 

RBI’s MPC or monetary policy committee meeting would be held from September 29 to October 1 and the outcome would be announced on 1st October. There is a great possibility that rates could be cut by 25 basis points. However, the uncertainty on the tariff front will be on RBI’s mind when considering whether to do or not. 

Coming to the markets in the four day week which has a holiday on Thursday the 2nd of October for Gandhi Jayanti and Dusshera and is preceded by NIFTY futures expiry on Tuesday, it would be choppy, volatile and should see significant movements in both directions. Level of 24,300 on NIFTY is a significant support and there should be some upward movement from these levels even if the same is short lived. Further down, support exists in a band of 23,600-23,800. On the upside, resistance is at 24,800-24,900 levels. What can be a big trigger is finalization of USA-India trade deals. Currently what we are seeing is an administration hell bent on causing undue harm to India on some reason or the other, simply because the same could not be done to China or Russia. 

The strategy would be to lie low and indulge in intraday trading and do research for portfolio building. July-September results will start kicking in in the next seven days and they will give a fair indication of where corporate India stands. Portfolio building would be great this time around end October when most of the unknowns and results would be behind us. Further, the markets being expensive would also have corrected itself largely, making it that much more attractive. 

Trade very cautiously.