The week prior to Diwali had the expected fireworks and indications are now available that we would be moving into new territory. Trump continues on his own and seems determined to bid for his Nobel Peace Prize all over again in 2026. Wishing him and the world all the best. This would certainly mean that new fronts of confrontation would be opened before they are resolved. 

BSESENSEX gained on three of the five trading sessions and was up 1,451.37 points or 1.76% to close at 83,952.19 points. NIFTY gained 424.50 points or 1.68% to close at 25,709.85 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.54%, 1.31% and 1.12% respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 2.01 points and was flat while BSESMALLCAP was down 337.61 points or 0.63%. The top sectorial gainer was BSEREALTY, up 4.12% while the top loser was last week’s gainer, BSEIT. It lost 2.30%. 

The Indian Rupee gained 69 paisa or 0.78% to close at Rs 87.95 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on three of the five trading sessions and lost on two. It was up 711.01 points or 1.56% to close at 46,190.61 points. Trump’s whimsical statements have begun to hurt the country and it seems to be losing its bargaining power as the top economy. It is forcing the world to come together and embark on a path of ‘de-dollarization’ which is gaining momentum and traction. This is certainly not in the interest of the USA, but no one in the country has the guts to say so to ‘POTUS’. 

Two of the biggies, Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank have declared quarterly results which have been good and augur well for the markets. Auto numbers are good and the impact of the massive GST reduction is reflecting in the buoyancy in the sector and others which are seeing similar traction. While the auto giants are yet to declare results, they would include a mere 9 days of sales under new GST regime in the results to be included. Further, after announcement of GST cut in the last week of August, auto sales and sales of other products being positively impacted had got deferred for the month. 

The primary market has definitely seen fatigue setting in. As of date in the current calendar year we have already seen more than 84 mainboard IPOs list with quite a few more waiting to launch. Easily one of the best in terms of number of issues and fund raised. This of course does not include the many OFS done on the exchanges, QIP issues and rights issues as well. Fund raising at its best. Have not spoken on the SME segment as that is difficult to understand and explain. 

Coming to SAMVAT 2081 which would be ending on Monday the 21st of October, it was a wild and choppy year. We began the year on 1st of November 2024 at levels of 79,389.06 points on BSESENSEX and 24,205.35 points on NIFTY. The lows made were during April 25 when levels of 71,425 and 21,743 points respectively were made. From there we have travelled a long way and closed at levels of 83,952 and 25,709, marginally lower than the highs of 84,172 and 25,781, both made on Friday the 17th of October. We have one more day to go before Samvat 2081 comes to an end. The year could be surmised as a below average year at the markets with returns of 5.75% on BSESENSEX and at 6.22% on NIFTY. 

‘MUHURAT’ trading would be held on Tuesday the 21st of October in the afternoon between 1.45 pm and 2.45 pm. This is the first time in over four decades that I remember that Muhurat trading would be held in the afternoon. Strange as it may sound, it’s an auspicious hour of trading and would like to wish all my readers, “A Happy Diwali and Prosperous Samvat 2082”. Wednesday would be a trading holiday for markets.

With last week’s up move and definite break upwards of resistance at 25,500-25,600 points, the levels shift upwards. New levels would now be at 26,100-26,200 points on NIFTY and support at 25,100-25,200 points. 

Trade cautiously.

The week gone by saw markets rise on hope and expectation that things on the tariff front would improve. It does not necessarily happen so. On expected lines, the Nobel Peace Prize did not go to Trump. It went to Maria Corina Machado, a Venezuelan. One would have thought that India would have borne the brunt of the fallout, but it was China. Effective 1st November, a 100% additional tariff has been imposed on China. This has been done because China has put restrictions on the export of rare earth to countries in turn re-exporting products and rare earth products to the USA. What happened post this announcement was a massive fall on Friday of 878.82 points or 1.90% on the Dow. Ramifications of what Trump did on Friday late evening Indian time would be felt globally when markets open post the weekend. 

BSESENSEX gained on four of the five trading sessions and lost on one. It was up 1,293.65 points or 1.59% to close at 82,500.82 points while NIFTY gained 391.10 points or 1.57% to close at 25,285.35 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.53%, 1.41% and 1.29% respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 1.50% while BSESMALLCAP was up a mere 0.01%. The top sectorial gainer was BSEIT which was up 4.28%. 

The Indian Rupee gained 13 paisa or 0.15% to close at Rs 88.64 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones was already under pressure during the week and then Friday happened. It lost 1,278.68 points or 2.73% to close at 45,479.60 points. Dow lost on all five trading sessions with Wednesday being virtually flat, with a net change of -1.20 points. 

Primary markets are seeing issues opening and closing as if there is no tomorrow. Of the five issues which listed last week, three are trading below issue price while just two are above the issue price. Similarly of the ten issues to have listed from the 1st of October, six are trading below issue price and just four are above par. Sad state of performance. Very clearly there is a fatigue factor in the market. Yet the issue of L G Electronics India Limited saw a new benchmark being set when the issue saw subscription of Rs 4 lac crores. Tremendous liquidity no doubt. Tata Capital Limited would be listing on Monday while L G Electronics would be listing on Tuesday. The best that could be expected from Tata Capital is a muted listing and I am sure nobody would be more than happy if the issue closes above the issue price of Rs 326. In the case of LG, there is euphoria and the premium had touched as high as Rs 425 and is currently around Rs 370. It is widely believed that the share would open strong with gains of Rs 300 or thereabouts. 

Currently the issues from Rubicon Research Limited, Canara Robeco Asset Management Co Ltd and Canara HSBC Life Insurance Company Limited are open. The issue from Midwest Limited would open on Wednesday the 15th of October and close on Friday the 17th of October. 

Diwali Muhurat trading will take place on Tuesday the 21st of October for one hour. Wednesday would be a trading holiday. 

The week ahead would be volatile and choppy. The relationship between PM Modi and Donald Trump seems to be getting back on track after Trump realised that the Nobel Peace Prize was never going to be his. He has now gone after China. Will the trade talks with India conclude right away? Seems unlikely. One should hope that before 2025 ends, we are able to conclude them. Expect some turns and twists before they conclude as the man at the top is confused big time. 

Levels of 25,300 have held their ground. They look like again acting as resistance as markets look to find support all over again at lower levels of say 24,800-850. With each attempt at crossing 25,200-300 failing, the level would become tougher to cross. Results season has begun and even though BSEIT was the top sectorial gainer last week, the only IT result declared was that from TCS and it left a lot to be desired. The share has since the beginning of the calendar year lost about Rs 1,060 to close at Rs 3,028. Not a very happy state to be in. Results would be the key and they don’t seem to augur well. Current geo-political scenario seems confusing and stressful. This is even though there seems to be some sort of peace emerging on the GAZA front. In such a scenario it makes sense to lie low and allow markets to run their course. 

Trade cautiously.