It was a volatile week and a complete reversal of the previous week. Markets lost on four of the five trading sessions and kept its prestige by gaining on the fifth day, Friday, which happened to be the first day of a new June series. Was the shining star during the week. BSESENSEX lost 1,449.08 points or 1.92% to close at 73,961.31 points while NIFTY lost 426.40 points or 1.86% to close at 22,530.70 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 1.09%, 1.83% and 1.73% respectively. BSEMIDCAP was down 1.53% and so was BSESMALLCAP a similar 1.53%. It may be mentioned here that in the previous week from 20th May to 24th May, BSESENSEX had gained 1,404.45 points or 1.90% while NIFTY gained 455.10 points or 2.02%. Effectively the two weeks scored out.  

The Indian Rupee was under pressure and lost 36 paisa or 0.43% to close at Rs 83.46 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on Friday after a continuous losing streak. For the week it lost 383.27 points or 0.98% to close at 38,686.32 points. Dow lost on three of the four trading sessions and gained on one. 

The week saw May futures expire on Thursday. At the end of the previous week the series was up 386.75 points or 1.71%. NIFTY surrendered all of this and closed with losses of 81.70 points or 0.36% to close at 22,488.65 points. 

In economic data released over the weekend, there was great news from the GDP front, economic front and GST tax collection front. GDP for the 4th quarter was at 7.8% which brings FY24 GDP at 8.2%. The fiscal deficit at 5.6% of GDP has bettered the government’s estimate. GST collection for May 24 is at 1.71 lac crores and continues the strong showing. 

The week ahead has RBI meet for its first policy meeting of FY24-25. It is widely expected that there would be no change in stance or interest rates as inflation is easing off. 

Shares of Awfis Space Solutions which had issued shares at Rs 383 listed on the bourses on Thursday the 30th of May. Shares closed day one at Rs 419.10, a gain of Rs 36.10 or 9.42%. On Friday, the share corrected sharply and closed at Rs 402.50, a reduced gain of Rs 19.50 or 5.09%. 

The seventh and final phase of voting concluded on Saturday the 1st of June. The exit polls at the end of the same indicate a strong performance of the ruling BJP and NDA led alliance across the country. While numbers suggest that they would have a more than comfortable majority on their own and may touch the magical number of 400 if the exit polls are to be believed. Well Tuesday would be another day and things would become clear. As of now it appears that things favor the incumbent and they should get through comfortably. 

Coming to the markets in the week ahead, while exit polls are in favor of NDA, one would like to be cautious for that one more day before celebrating wholeheartedly. By Tuesday midday, results would be clear which way the wind is blowing. What should be the strategy for the week ahead?

Looking at exit polls, a rally on Monday is almost certain. What may also happen is that post this rally there could be some profit taking and volatility. Tuesday would see volatility as the election trend in the morning is sketchy and skewed. Post this initial hiccup if exit polls hold good, markets should see a blast. FPIs have been aggressive sellers and a bout of short covering could give the needed ammunition to bulls to charge the market. It makes sense therefore to hold out your bets till markets stabilize post Tuesday results and allow the euphoria as exit polls indicate to kick in. New highs on NIFTY and BSESENSEX are on the cards and one should not be surprised if we see levels of about 79,000 on BSESENSEX and 23,800 on NIFTY in the coming week. All of this is subject to the fact that exit polls or even better the poll of polls is taken as a benchmark. 

The strategy would be to ride the rally and allow markets to savor the victory. Allow the euphoria to kick in and do not be in a hurry to book profits. Exercise caution in buying stocks where one is not comfortable on fundamentals. In conclusion, be cautious and allow exit polls to convert to results. 

Trade cautiously.

Markets were on a roll and they had plenty of action and drama as well in the week gone by. The previously announced holiday on Thursday the 23rd of May on account of Buddha Purnima was cancelled by the exchanges on Monday, considering the fact that two holidays in a week would break the momentum. As events turned out, Thursday was the key pivot for the markets as they gained a massive 1,197 points on BSESENSEX and 370 points on NIFTY on Thursday. In the process, they made new lifetime highs as well. The RBI declaring a dividend of Rupees 2.1 lakh crores for the financial year ended March 2024 was a great help as well, as it ensured that the fiscal deficit which the government is targeting is well under control. At the end of the four day week BSESENSEX gained on two and lost on two sessions while NIFTY gained on three and lost on one session. BSESENSEX gained 1,404.45 points or 1.90% to close at 75,410.39 points while NIFTY gained 455.10 points or 2.02% to close at 22,957.10 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.87%, 1.87% and 1.65% respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 1.10% while BSESMALLCAP was up 0.08%. The new intraday highs made on Friday were at 75,499.91 points and 23,026.40 points. 

The Indian Rupee had a strong showing during the week and gained 24 paisa or 0.29% to close at Rs 83.10 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones saw selling pressure and lost on three of the five trading sessions. It was down 934 points or 2.33% to close at 39,069.59 points. 

The week gone by saw one new mainboard listing. Shares of Go Digit General Insurance Limited which were issued at Rs 272 listed on Thursday the 23rd of May. The opening price was Rs 281.10 on BSE. Shares closed day one at Rs 305.75, a gain of Rs 33.75 or 12.40%. On Friday, the share lost some ground and closed at Rs 300.15, a reduced gain since listing of Rs 28.15 or 10.35%. 

The issue from Awfis Space Solutions Limited is currently on. The issue consists of a fresh issue of Rs 128 crores and an offer for sale of 1,22,95,699 equity shares in a price band of Rs 364-383. The company as the name suggests is in the business of providing common work spaces on a daily or longer term contracted basis. Currently the company is on a net loss, basis its restated accounts which are showing a declining trend. Looking at the leverage opportunity that the company has and the fact that 75% of the space is rented out, it could be expected that the company should report positive numbers for the year ended March 25. 

The issue opened on Wednesday the 22nd of May and would close on Monday the 27th of May. At the end of day2 of the issue opening it had received decent support with the issue being subscribed an overall 11.4 times. The QIB portion was subscribed 3.39 times, HNI portion 20.98 times and Retail portion was subscribed 21.08 times. Investors looking for listing pop and having a medium term holding period would be rewarded if their application for the share is successful. 

The week ahead sees May futures expire on Thursday the 30th of May. The current value of NIFTY at 22,957.10 points is higher by 386.75 points or 1.71% compared to the May series opening of 22,570.35 points. It would be interesting to note that all the gains have been made in the previous week as prior to this the series was negative. While currently the momentum is with the bulls, one needs to be cautious as to the way that markets may move on election results eve. 

The sixth phase of voting has concluded and now just the 7th and final phase of voting on Saturday the 1st of June remains. With the sharp rally over the last two weeks since markets made a bottom on Monday the 13th of May, they have rallied quite sharply. They have also made new lifetime highs. Very clearly the markets are convinced that the ruling BJP led NDA would form the next government. Exit poll assessment would begin Saturday evening and carry on till results are announced on Tuesday morning. 

With expiry happening during the coming week, volatility on expiry day could get substantially elevated as people decide to lighten positions and adopt a wait and watch attitude. FPIs have been big sellers in the month of May and barring a couple of days sold every day. This excess of liquidity while it was absorbed by domestic institutions could see a mismatch on expiry day. 

Coming to the week ahead, expect sharp volatility as expiry day approaches. The election results getting closer could cause volatility to rise post futures expiry as positions would in all probability get liquidated to a large extent. With limited positions open in the market, Monday to Wednesday in the week 3rd June to 6th June could see really sharp volatility. The strategy for the week ahead would be to reduce positions as the week progresses. Refrain from any overweight positions in either direction as sharp volatility is expected. Analyze exit polls for all they are worth, look at results and then take a call.