The week gone by which had two days in outgoing 2024 and three days in 2025 was choppy and volatile and reminding all of what a turbulent and volatile year 2024 was. The high of the year was made in September, and it was a slow and gradual downside over the next quarter. We have ended around midway as far as gains for the calendar year are concerned. Its also the lowest gains on the benchmark indices since covid in March 2020. The week saw the indices gain on two of the five trading sessions and lose on three. Thursday saw a big jump where benchmark indices gained about 1.8% and losing almost half of it on Friday. Welcome start to the new calendar year as far as volatility is concerned. 

BSESENSEX gained 524.04 points or 0.67% to close at 79,223.11 points while NIFTY gained 191.35 points or 0.80% to close at 24,004.75 points. The broader indices like BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 saw gains of 1.06%, 1.10% and 1.16% respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 1.32% while BSESMALLCAP gained 1.94%. 

The Indian Rupee was under renewed pressure and lost 24 paisa or 0.28% to close at Rs 85.77. Dow Jones was a mixed bag and lost on three of the four trading sessions. A sharp recovery on Friday, saw it recover losses suffered during the week. Dow closed with losses of 260.08 points or 0.60% to close at 42,732.13 points. 

In primary market news we saw four listings with three of them on Monday the 30th of December and one on Tuesday the 31st of December. We also had one issue from Indo Farm Equipment Limited which caught the fancy of investors and was very heavily subscribed. The issue was subscribed 229.68 times with QIB portion subscribed 242.4 times, HNI portion subscribed 503.83 times and Retail portion subscribed 104.92 times. The appetite for new paper seems never ending and one wonders what needs to happen to upset or puncture this enthusiasm. 

There are two primary issues in the week ahead. The first is from Standard Glass Lining Technology Limited which is tapping the capital markets with its fresh issue to raise Rs 210 crores and an offer for sale of 1,42,89,367 shares in a price band of Rs 133-140. The issue would open on Monday the 6th of January and close on Wednesday the 8th of January. This would be the first issue for calendar year 2025.

The company is a specialized engineering equipment manufacturer in India with in-house capabilities to manufacture all the core specialized engineering equipment required in the active pharmaceutical ingredient (“API”) and fine chemical products manufacturing process. 

The second is from Quadrant Future Tek Limited which is tapping the markets with its fresh issue of 1 crore shares totaling Rs 290 crores at the top end of the price band of Rs 275-290. The issue opens on Tuesday the 7th of January and closes on Thursday the 9th of January. The company has just received a large order from the Indian Railways for enhanced railway safety and operations under the ‘KAVACH’ program. As this is a new order, the company needs to demonstrate its execution skill sets over the next 12 months. 

The performance of the newly listed entities was a mixed bag with one issue trading below par at the end of the week while one other registered small gains looking at the market mood. The other two saw gains of close to 46% and 84% respectively. 

The period ahead would continue to remain volatile and choppy. There are three events coming up in the next 25 days. The first is the results season for Quarter 3 for the period October to December. The second is US President assuming office and then issuing orders on a host of trade issues, some of which would be positive and some negative for India. The third is the budget to be declared on Saturday the 1st of February. All of these events have the potential to keep the market momentum going and they would give the markets a positive spin in the coming days. A note of caution however is that currently the markets seem to lack the steam to run away in a tearing hurry. It would be more of a case of two steps forward and one step backwards. A slow and calibrated approach with markets moving up as the events unfold. 

The first levels of resistance for the markets would be levels of 24,500 points on NIFTY and 80,700-80,800 points on BSESENSEX. This should be a good enough target for the week ahead. On the support side, levels of 23,700 on NIFTY and at 78,300 on BSESENSEX would act as strong supports. The strategy would be to look at large cap stocks as they would be the ones which are the first of the block. FPI buying would come in them and that would move markets. Further one small secret, the large cap companies tend to declare results faster than the rest of the markets. 

Trade cautiously. 

The Week gone by showed how long a week could be in the stock market. It was never ending and shook the market to its core. It lost on every trading session of the week and at the end of it, it was down a massive 4,091 points on BSESENSEX and 1,180 points on NIFTY. Something not witnessed in recent times and surely our new investors who have joined the markets in large numbers post-covid since March 2020, would find this unheard of. The impact of Friday the 13th is clear to all and what was being talked about as the Santa rally, has instead turned out to be the continuation of the discount sale on Dalal Street. Nothing was spared and everything was red in tune with the color of the season. BSESENSEX lost 4,091.53 points or 4.98% to close at 78,041.59 points while NIFTY lost 1,180.80 points or 4.77% to close at 23,587.50 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 4.82%, 4.68% and 4.53% respectively. BSEMIDCAP was down 3.24% while BSESMALLCAP was down 3.17%. 

The Indian Rupee was under pressure and lost 27 paisa or 0.23% to close at Rs 85.02. Dow Jones had a torrid time in the week gone by. The US FED cut interest rates on expected lines by 25 basis points but indicated that there would be no more than two cuts in the coming 2025. This spooked the markets and they were down very sharply post the meeting on Wednesday. Sanity did return on Friday when they recovered quite smartly but not enough to recoup the losses. Dow was down 987.20 points or 2.25% to close at 42,840.86 points. 

The primary market is very buoyant these days and bunching of issues has become the norm. Wednesday saw the listing of as many as three issues and currently as many as five issues have opened on Thursday the 19th of December and would close on Tuesday the 24th of December. One wonders what the views of the regulator on such bunching are? They would list on the same day, Monday the 30th of December and unfortunately the two exchanges combined do not have the infrastructure to host five listings at one time. 

The first of the listing was from One Mobikwik Systems Limited which had issued shares at Rs 279. The share closed day one at Rs 530.30, a gain of Rs 250.30 or 89.71%. It closed lower at Rs 488.40, a gain of Rs 209.40 or 75.05%. 

The second share to list was Vishal Mega Mart Limited which had issued shares at Rs 78. The share closed day one at Rs 111.95, a gain of Rs 33.95 or 43.52%. By the end of the week the share surrendered some gains and closed at Rs 101.11, a gain of Rs 23.11 or 29.63%. 

The third share to list was Sai Life Sciences Limited which had issued shares at Rs549. The share closed day one at Rs 765.30, a gain of Rs 216.30 or 39.39%. By close of trading at the weekend, the share had slipped to Rs 702.20, a gain of Rs 153.20 or 27.91%. 

The fourth share to list was Inventurus Knowledge Solutions Limited which had issued shares at Rs 1,329. The share listed on Thursday the 19th of December and closed at Rs 1,960.25, a gain of Rs 631.25 or 47.49%. It lost ground on Friday and closed at Rs 1,887.50, a gain of Rs 558.50 or 42.02%. 

The fifth and final share to list was International Gemmological Institute India Limited which had issued shares at Rs 417. The share which listed on Friday, made a high of Rs 525 and closed at Rs 470.15, a gain of Rs 53.15 or 12.75%. 

The week ahead sees a total of nine issues that would close during the week. The first lot would see five issues which have opened on Thursday the 19th of December and would close on Monday the 23rd of December. These are from Dam Capital Advisors Limited, Concord Enviro Systems Limited, Sanathan Textiles Limited, Mamata Machinery Limited and Transrail Lighting Limited. The second lot consists of three issues which have opened on Friday the 20th of December and would close on Tuesday the 24th of December. These are from Senores Pharmaceuticals Limited, Ventive Hospitality Limited and Carraro India Limited. 

The final issue which would open on Monday the 23rd of December and close on Thursday the 26th of December. This issue is from Unimech Aerospace & Manufacturing Limited. This bunching of issues in December is something which I have not witnessed in a very long time. Clearly there is something which is not being understood. The narrative that accounts would have to be updated is a very old excuse and it happens every time. There is nothing new in that logic whatsoever. Incidentally, post listing within 21 days, any results overdue have to be declared. 

Coming to the markets, FPIs were very aggressive sellers in the month of October 24 and have actually been small buyers so far in the month of December. Further if one were to look at the calendar year 2024 so far in totality, they have done nothing much, buying on a net basis a little over Rs 6,000 crores. 

The week ahead has a holiday on Wednesday on account of Christmas which is followed by December futures that would expire on Thursday. The present level of NIFTY at 23,587.50 points sees the series down by 326.65 points or 1.37%. With last week’s sharp fall, the series has tilted in favor of the bears. With three days to go, it will be a herculean task to pull it back. It should be noted that while in this month FPIs are net buyers they have played very well on Friday the 13th of December and caused the sharp movement in the markets on that day and post that day. 

Expect markets to trade lower as we move towards the mid-week holiday. The advantage that FPIs have will be fully exploited and somewhere between the holiday and expiry or putting it more wider time frame, during the week we should see markets establishing a bottom and moving up. Levels of support would be 23,200-23,400 on NIFTY and at 76,800-77,400 on BSESENSEX. What would move is the next question. The last leg has seen the benchmark indices bear the brunt of the beating. It would therefore be natural to expect the large caps to be the biggest beneficiary. In terms of resistance levels of around 24,100-24,250 points would be the first hurdle.

We are in the final stages of pain and with budget expectations which would start playing out over the next month, expectation of third quarter results keeping the market active, expect a better January 2025 ahead. 

Trade cautiously over the last six trading sessions of calendar year 2024 with four in this week and two in the next week. 

Merry Christmas.